# Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? 30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-december-31-4d05830c - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 12 November 2026 - Research dated: 12 November 2026 - Published: 12 November 2026 - Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-december-31 - Venue YES price: Not recorded - Market closes: 5 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. ## The question, as the venue words it Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? ## How this market settles This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (3 claims) - "Anthropic is preparing for its initial public offering (IPO) with an expected valuation of around $1.33 trillion" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Acciones tecnológicas repuntan y Wall Street recupera terreno ante el optimismo por la IA. Las acciones tecnológicas recuperaron terreno tras la reciente caída, impulsadas por las perspectivas de CoreWeave, los ingresos de OpenAI y la fuerte demanda por la OPI de Anthropic. Bloomberg -- Un repunte en las acciones de los gigantes tecnológicos impulsó al alza las cotizaciones ante la espec" [Bloomberg Línea](https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/acciones-tecnologicas-repuntan-y-wall-street-recupera-terreno-ante-el-optimismo-por-la-ia/), published 11 November 2026 - "Anthropicov izlazak na burzu: deset pitanja na koja ulagači (i svi ostali) traže odgovor. Tvrtka koja stoji iza Claudea počela je ulagačima predstavljati inicijalnu javnu ponudu dionica pod oznakom ANT na Nasdaqu. Tko će se na tome obogatiti, hoće li Claude poskupjeti i što ako tvrtka odluči zakočiti vlastiti razvoj? Kad je Anthropic 2021. osnovala skupina bivših OpenAI-jevih istraživač" [bug.hr](https://www.bug.hr/umjetna-inteligencija/anthropicov-izlazak-na-burzu-deset-pitanja-na-koja-ulagaci-i-svi-ostali-traze-64239), published 11 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (27 claims) - "Anthropic is the company that created the chatbot Claude" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "Anthropic: Banken wollen wohl IPO-Bewertung auf 1,5 Billionen Dollar erhöhen" [Handelsblatt](https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/aktien/anthropic-banken-wollen-wohl-ipo-bewertung-auf-15-billionen-dollar-erhoehen/100269019.html), published 11 November 2026 - "Η Anthropic ετοιμάζει IPO με αποτίμηση 1,5 τρισ. δολαρίων" [Euro2day](https://www.euro2day.gr/news/world/article/2377643/h-anthropic-etoimazei-ipo-me-apotimhsh-15-tris-dol.html), published 11 November 2026 - "Kevin Mahn raised the question of whether OpenAI can offer additional products on top of its base offering, similar to how Coca-Cola offers various sodas, compared to Anthropic's sparkling water base" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/are-anthropic-and-openai-destined-to-become-the-coke-vs-pepsi-of-ai-190144326.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Turney Duff proposed an analogy comparing Anthropic to Coca-Cola and OpenAI to Pepsi" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/are-anthropic-and-openai-destined-to-become-the-coke-vs-pepsi-of-ai-190144326.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Kevin Mahn proposed a new analogy: OpenAI is like being offered a glass of water, while Anthropic is like being asked if you want sparkling water" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/are-anthropic-and-openai-destined-to-become-the-coke-vs-pepsi-of-ai-190144326.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Kevin Mahn questioned whether customers are willing to pay a premium for sparkling water (Anthropic) over regular water (OpenAI)" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/are-anthropic-and-openai-destined-to-become-the-coke-vs-pepsi-of-ai-190144326.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Kevin Mahn disagreed with Turney Duff's analogy, stating that OpenAI has significant consumer access and distribution capabilities, especially with their personal agent technology" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/are-anthropic-and-openai-destined-to-become-the-coke-vs-pepsi-of-ai-190144326.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Kevin Mahn noted that OpenAI's enterprise business is reportedly larger than its consumer business" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/are-anthropic-and-openai-destined-to-become-the-coke-vs-pepsi-of-ai-190144326.html), published 5 November 2026 - "The startup company Anthropic is preparing to go public on the stock market, despite warnings about artificial intelligence" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "Anthropic is valued at $1.3 trillion" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "This would value Anthropic between $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion, which is below the $2 trillion foreseen by some investors in the summer, according to the Financial Times" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "The huge valuation comes despite the company's warning last month that artificial intelligence could pose 'catastrophic or existential risks to humanity'" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "In its latest financial results for the six months ending June, Anthropic's revenue jumped to $16.2 billion from $1.1 billion in the same period last year" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "Fiona Cincota, a senior market analyst at City Index, stated that the $64 billion Anthropic aims to raise is 'quite optimistic' given its 'volatility and concerns about artificial intelligence that we have seen particularly in the last week'" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "The estimated price range for each Anthropic share in the IPO is between $70 and $78" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Anthropic intends to sell 801.35 million Class A ordinary shares, with selling shareholders offering an additional 23.65 million Class A ordinary shares" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Underwriters have the option to purchase up to 123.75 million additional Anthropic shares at the IPO price" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Anthropic has an agreement with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom, Google, Micron Technology, Microsoft Corporation, Nvidia Corporation, and TSMC Partners to acquire $26 billion worth of Class N ordinary shares through a private placement" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "The proforma capitalization of Anthropic, at the maximum price of $78 per share, is estimated to be around $1.02 trillion" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Anthropic reported net losses of $104.039 million in the first nine months of the year, a 314.4% increase compared to the previous year" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "The company, which is currently reporting losses, will offer its shares at a price between $70 and $78 per share and will raise up to $64 billion in its initial public offering this month, according to the BBC" [www.24chasa.bg](https://www.24chasa.bg/biznes/article/23905750), published 10 November 2026 - "The IPO aims to raise between $57.75 billion and $64.35 billion by selling 825 million shares" [Faro de Vigo](https://www.farodevigo.es/vida-y-estilo/tecnologia/2026/11/10/anthropic-fija-rango-70-78-136287195.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Banker vill pressa upp Anthropic-kursen" [SvD.se](https://www.svd.se/a/wdeagg), published 11 November 2026 - "Anthropic sale a bolsa en plenas rebajas (y es una buena noticia)" [El Confidencial](https://www.elconfidencial.com/mercados/telon-de-fondo/2026-11-11/anthropic-salida-bolsa-ia-1hms_4462467/), published 11 November 2026 - "Invertir en la salida a bolsa de Anthropic: ¿una montaña rusa asegurada?" [LaVanguardia](https://www.lavanguardia.com/dinero/bolsillo/20261111/11678889/anthropic-bolsa-salida-debut-invertir-comprar-acciones-pca.html), published 11 November 2026 - "Kevin Mahn explained that large language model companies typically release their smartest and most expensive models first, followed by cheaper versions with slightly less capability" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/are-anthropic-and-openai-destined-to-become-the-coke-vs-pepsi-of-ai-190144326.html), published 5 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 10 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 7 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The market title says 'Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation' but does not specify which outcome is YES and which is NO — it is implied YES = Anthropic higher, but this must be inferred from context - December 31, 2026 may not be a trading day (it falls on a Wednesday in 2026, so likely is a trading day, but NPM publication schedule depends on their calendar) - 'Final NPM Price' is defined as the price updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day, creating a potential timezone/date mismatch for December 31 data published January 1 - If NPM ceases coverage, resolution falls back to 'latest available data' which introduces ambiguity about timeliness and comparability - The 50-50 resolution clause for equal valuations creates a scenario not cleanly captured by binary YES/NO - Revisions to NPM data are excluded unless 'clearly erroneous' — 'clearly erroneous' is subjective and undefined - Total outstanding shares for public market cap calculation is not pinned to a specific filing or date, leaving room for interpretation ## Publication history - Published 12 November 2026; research dated 12 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.