# IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? 24 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040-b3e219e9 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 9 November 2026 - Research dated: 9 November 2026 - Published: 9 November 2026 - Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014#0x6c783a56758368cb7ebdd383a368ab39728d3475d36a561626176657faaeb564 - Venue YES price: 19.5c at 9 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? ## How this market settles This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (11 claims) - "Esmail Kosari, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Parliament, stated that the centrifuges and 60% uranium reserves were not damaged after the US attacks on the nuclear facilities of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan" [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2300035/%da%a9%d9%88%d8%ab%d8%b1%db%8c-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a2%d9%85%d8%b1%db%8c%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%af%d9%88-%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86%d8%b2-%d9%88-%d8%a7%d8%b5%d9%81%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%86%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa%da%af%d8%a7%d9%87-%d9%87%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b1%db%8c%d9%81%db%8c%d9%88%da%98), published 9 November 2026 - "Iran suspended its cooperation with the IAEA following aggressive attacks by the United States and the Zionist regime in June 2025, which led to the bombing of Iran's atomic facilities in Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow" [همشهری آنلاین](https://www.hamshahrionline.ir/news/1080823/%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b9%d8%a7%db%8c-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%db%8c-%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%87-%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%b3%db%8c%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%87%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86), published 27 October 2026 - "Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the UN nuclear watchdog has "failed to fulfill their legal obligations by adopting positions that overlook the culpability and wrongdoing in the aggression against Iran's facilities" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "Iran has denied the IAEA access needed to conduct inspections at Iran's most proliferation-sensitive nuclear sites" [thenewsintel.com](https://thenewsintel.com/iran-must-allow-the-return-of-iaea-inspectors-to-all-nuclear-sites-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council/), published 28 October 2026 - "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not had access to key nuclear facilities in Iran since Israel, joined by the United States, launched a 12-day conflict in June 2025 that included strikes on nuclear sites" [CNHI News](https://www.cnhinews.com/news/article_e1500d4e-9912-5021-a90f-800318f48630.html), published 27 October 2026 - "The IAEA reported in June 2026 that it was unable to draw a safeguards conclusion regarding Iran's nuclear material due to Iran's refusal to engage, and stated this was a proliferation concern" [thenewsintel.com](https://thenewsintel.com/iran-must-allow-the-return-of-iaea-inspectors-to-all-nuclear-sites-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council/), published 28 October 2026 - "Last month, the IAEA Board of Governors reported Iran to the Security Council for continued non-compliance with its nuclear safeguards obligations" [thenewsintel.com](https://thenewsintel.com/iran-must-allow-the-return-of-iaea-inspectors-to-all-nuclear-sites-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-council/), published 28 October 2026 - "Nuclear facilities have also been hit in the latest war, which erupted on February 28, and the IAEA has repeatedly called for access" [CNHI News](https://www.cnhinews.com/news/article_e1500d4e-9912-5021-a90f-800318f48630.html), published 27 October 2026 - "The Security Council meeting followed a resolution passed by the IAEA board last month that referred Iran to the top UN body over its nuclear "non-compliance" [CNHI News](https://www.cnhinews.com/news/article_e1500d4e-9912-5021-a90f-800318f48630.html), published 27 October 2026 - "IAEA chief Rafael Grossi urged Iran during a UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday to grant immediate access to his agency so it can verify the Islamic republic's nuclear materials" [CNHI News](https://www.cnhinews.com/news/article_e1500d4e-9912-5021-a90f-800318f48630.html), published 27 October 2026 - "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported to the UN Security Council that it has not confirmed any Iranian efforts to restore or rebuild nuclear facilities destroyed by US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261028020600072), published 27 October 2026 ### Context (13 claims) - "Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the International Atomic Energy Agency recently inspected Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the recent inspection of the Bushehr nuclear power plant is evidence that regulated cooperation continues" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "Esmaeil Baghaei said that "Professional communication between Iran's mission in Vienna and the agency is ongoing" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "Esmaeil Baghaei reiterated Iran's stance that the US must concede to Iranian demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "Esmaeil Baghaei responded to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statements by saying that "the US attack on Iran in the middle of negotiations is what is outrageous and ridiculous" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "Esmaeil Baghaei stressed that "Tehran will only sign and implement an agreement that fully secures the national interests and legal rights of the Iranian nation" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "Esmaeil Baghaei argued that the US is being drawn into war by Israel" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-says-iaea-visited-nuclear-site-recently-us-should-follow-public-sentiment-and-end-war/), published 9 November 2026 - "According to Kosari, the distance of these forces from Iran, ranging from 700 to 1000 kilometers, has reduced their operational capability for an attack compared to the past" [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2300035/%da%a9%d9%88%d8%ab%d8%b1%db%8c-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a2%d9%85%d8%b1%db%8c%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%af%d9%88-%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86%d8%b2-%d9%88-%d8%a7%d8%b5%d9%81%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%86%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa%da%af%d8%a7%d9%87-%d9%87%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b1%db%8c%d9%81%db%8c%d9%88%da%98), published 9 November 2026 - "Kosari explained that the US has deployed a significant number of aircraft around Iran" [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2300035/%da%a9%d9%88%d8%ab%d8%b1%db%8c-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a2%d9%85%d8%b1%db%8c%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%af%d9%88-%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86%d8%b2-%d9%88-%d8%a7%d8%b5%d9%81%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%86%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa%da%af%d8%a7%d9%87-%d9%87%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b1%db%8c%d9%81%db%8c%d9%88%da%98), published 9 November 2026 - "Kosari noted that these US aircraft are not present in the Persian Gulf" [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2300035/%da%a9%d9%88%d8%ab%d8%b1%db%8c-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a2%d9%85%d8%b1%db%8c%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%af%d9%88-%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%86%d8%b2-%d9%88-%d8%a7%d8%b5%d9%81%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%86%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa%da%af%d8%a7%d9%87-%d9%87%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b1%db%8c%d9%81%db%8c%d9%88%da%98), published 9 November 2026 - "وسط معارضة روسيا والصين.. بحث ملف ايران النووي باجتماع لمجلس الأمن الدولي - قناة العالم الاخبارية. عقد مجلس الأمن الدولي اجتماعا اليوم الثلاثاء، بناءً على طلب امريكا والدول الأوروبية الثلاث فرنسا وبريطانيا وألمانيا وكذلك البحرين، وذلك في أعقاب القرار المسيس ضد البرنامج النووي السلمي الإيراني، والذي يقضي بإحالة الملف النووي الإيراني إلى هذا المجلس، وقد عارض ممثلا روسيا والصين عقد هذا الاجتماع. وأ" [قناة العالم الاخبارية](https://www.alalam.ir/news/7674248/%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%b7-%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%b6%d8%a9-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d9%8a%d9%86--%d8%a8%d8%ad%d8%ab-%d9%85%d9%84%d9%81-%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%88%d9%88%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%aa%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b9-%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%86), published 27 October 2026 - "گروسی خواستار بازگشت بازرسان آژانس به ایران شد" [اعتمادآنلاین](https://www.etemadonline.com/%d8%a8%d8%ae%d8%b4-%d8%a8%db%8c%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d9%84-17/797207-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%db%8c-%d8%ae%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b2%da%af%d8%b4%d8%aa-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b2%d8%b1%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a2%da%98%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b3-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b4%d8%af), published 27 October 2026 - "نشست شورای امنیت سازمان ملل در پی ارجاع پرونده ایران از آژانس/ اعتراض روسیه و چین. نیویورک - ایرنا- نشست شورای امنیت سازمان ملل متحد در پی قطعنامه سیاسی و ضد ایرانی آمریکا و حامیانش در شورای حکام آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی مبنی بر ارجاع پرونده هستهای ایران به این شورا برگزار شد و نمایندگان روسیه و چین با برگزاری این نشست مخالفت کردند. به گزارش خبرنگار ایرنا از مقر سازمان ملل، ای" [ایرنا](https://www.irna.ir/news/86305155/%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%b4%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%86%db%8c%d8%aa-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%b2%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%84%d9%84-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%be%db%8c-%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%ac%d8%a7%d8%b9-%d9%be%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86%d8%af%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d8%b2-%d8%a2%da%98%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b3), published 27 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 24 claims from 9 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - 'Consensus of credible reporting' is subjective and undefined — no specific outlets or threshold number of sources specified - Market creation date is not explicitly stated, creating ambiguity about the start of the qualifying window - 'Recognized boundaries' of each site are not formally defined and could be disputed - Timezone ambiguity: '11:59 PM ET' on December 31 could refer to EST (UTC-5) or EDT (UTC-4) depending on interpretation, though December 31 is EST — end date metadata suggests 04:59 UTC which aligns with EST - No clarity on whether a covert or unannounced visit that is later reported would qualify if not confirmed by IAEA directly ## Publication history - Published 9 November 2026; research dated 9 November 2026. - Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 5 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 9 November 2026. 4 of 9 cited sources are new; 5 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.