# Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

- Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by-915ba9b0
- Category: geopolitics
- Evidence collected: 5 November 2026
- Research dated: 5 November 2026
- Published: 5 November 2026
- Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by#0xe846dd72f8a654ef137a3e23a88226400b42cc0ca817ab4390a615860e08cafa
- Venue YES price: 5.5c at 5 November 2026
- Market closes: 1 January 2027

Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims.

**This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.**

## The question, as the venue words it

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

## How this market settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.

An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.

To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.

Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## Evidence you can inspect

_These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._

### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims)

_No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._

### Evidence challenging YES (14 claims)

- "Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated on Monday that transferring Iran's uranium enriched to 60% to a third country is not under consideration in talks with the United States"
  [Jewish News Syndicate](https://www.jns.org/news/world/iran-moving-60-uranium-abroad-not-under-consideration), published 2 November 2026
- "Iran's mission in Vienna stated on Wednesday that Rafael Grossi expressed concern about Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpiles but remained silent on the "illegal bombing of peaceful nuclear facilities under Iran's safeguards"
  [Mehr News Agency](https://ar.mehrnews.com/news/1975284/%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%ab%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%af-%d9%86%d9%87%d8%ac-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%af%d9%88%d8%ac), published 5 November 2026
- "Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), stated during a press conference in Tehran on Monday (November 2) that no talks have occurred concerning the removal of 60% enriched uranium from Iran"
  [Trend](https://www.trend.az/iran/4241854.html), published 2 November 2026
- "Iran's representative in Vienna stated that the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, spoke about Iran's 60% enriched uranium reserves but remained silent about the illegal bombing of Iran's peaceful nuclear facilities"
  [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2297843/%d9%88%d8%a7%da%a9%d9%86%d8%b4-%d9%86%d9%85%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%86%d8%af%da%af%db%8c-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%88%db%8c%d9%86-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b9%d8%a7%db%8c-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%db%8c), published 4 November 2026
- "Iran's representative in Vienna wrote on the social media platform X that Rafael Grossi expressed concern about Iran's 60% enriched uranium reserves but was silent about the illegal bombing of peaceful nuclear facilities under Iran's protection"
  [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2297843/%d9%88%d8%a7%da%a9%d9%86%d8%b4-%d9%86%d9%85%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%86%d8%af%da%af%db%8c-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%88%db%8c%d9%86-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b9%d8%a7%db%8c-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%db%8c), published 4 November 2026
- "The Iranian mission to Vienna stated that Rafael Grossi once again expressed concern about Iran's 60% enriched uranium reserves, but remained silent on the illegal bombing of peaceful nuclear facilities protected by Iran"
  [پایگاه خبری تحلیلی انتخاب | Entekhab.ir](https://www.entekhab.ir/fa/news/946517/%d9%88%d8%a7%da%a9%d9%86%d8%b4-%d8%af%d9%81%d8%aa%d8%b1-%d9%86%d9%85%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%86%d8%af%da%af%db%8c-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%88%db%8c%d9%86-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b9%d8%a7%db%8c-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%db%8c-%d8%af%d8%b1-npt-%d9%87%db%8c%da%86-%d8%b3%d9%82%d9%81%db%8c-%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b3%d8%b7%d8%ad-%d8%ba%d9%86%db%8c-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%b2%db%8c-%d9%88%d8%ac%d9%88%d8%af-%d9%86%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%ac%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%ac%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa-%da%a9%d9%87-%da%86%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%88-%d9%86%da%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%db%8c-%d8%ae%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%b1%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%af-%d9%87%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%a8%d8%a7-%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%ac%d9%87-%d8%aa%d8%b3%d9%84%db%8c%d8%ad%d8%a7%d8%aa%db%8c-%d9%88-%d9%be%d9%84%d9%88%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%db%8c%d9%88%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b4%d8%aa%d9%87-%d8%b4%d8%af%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%b1-%d8%ac%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d8%b2-%d8%ac%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b1-%da%a9%d8%b4%d9%88%d8%b1-%d9%87%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%ba%db%8c%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b2-%d9%86%d9%85%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d8%af), published 4 November 2026
- "Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Bagei stated that Iran will not allow enriched uranium to be taken out of the country, rejecting the possibility of transferring uranium enriched to 60% to a third country"
  [Novosti](https://www.novosti.rs/planeta/svet/1667057/bagei-porucio-iran-nece-dozvoli-iznosenje-obogacenog-uranijuma-zemlje), published 2 November 2026
- "Esmaeil Baghaei said, "No such proposal is under consideration," when asked about the possibility of transferring enriched uranium under a potential agreement, according to the state-run ISNA agency"
  [Jewish News Syndicate](https://www.jns.org/news/world/iran-moving-60-uranium-abroad-not-under-consideration), published 2 November 2026
- "Baghaei responded "No" to journalists' questions about whether the export of enriched uranium from Iran was discussed during recent consultations with the American side, as reported by broadcaster IRIB on social media platform X (formerly Twitter)"
  [Izvestia.ru](https://iz.ru/2194809/v-mid-irana-oprovergli-obsuzhdenie-vyvoza-obogashchennogo-urana-iz-strany-izi), published 2 November 2026
- "The issue of exporting Iranian uranium enriched to 60% to third countries was not discussed during recent contacts between Tehran and Washington, stated Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei on November 2nd"
  [Izvestia.ru](https://iz.ru/2194809/v-mid-irana-oprovergli-obsuzhdenie-vyvoza-obogashchennogo-urana-iz-strany-izi), published 2 November 2026
- "The issue of Iran's nuclear program, including the handling of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, remains a major obstacle in US-Iran peace talks"
  [VOV.vn](https://vov.vn/the-gioi/iaea-muon-tiep-can-luong-urani-da-lam-giau-cua-iran-post1345179.vov), published 27 October 2026
- "Despite the Islamic Republic of Iran repeatedly emphasizing that its nuclear program is peaceful, Rafael Grossi claimed that Iran is enriching uranium up to the 60% level and is the only non-nuclear weapon state doing so"
  [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2297843/%d9%88%d8%a7%da%a9%d9%86%d8%b4-%d9%86%d9%85%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%86%d8%af%da%af%db%8c-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%88%db%8c%d9%86-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b9%d8%a7%db%8c-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%db%8c), published 4 November 2026
- "Despite Iran repeatedly emphasizing the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, Rafael Grossi claimed that Iran is enriching uranium up to 60%, making it the only non-nuclear-weapon state to do so"
  [همشهری آنلاین](https://www.hamshahrionline.ir/news/1083000/%d9%88%d8%a7%da%a9%d9%86%d8%b4-%d8%a8%d9%87-%d9%86%d9%82%d8%b4%d9%87-%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%a7%d9%86%db%8c%d8%a7%d9%87%d9%88-%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%b2-%d8%b3%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad-%d9%87%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b9%d9%84%db%8c%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86), published 4 November 2026
- "Iranian Army Chief Asim Munir met with Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei in Tehran, where Rezaei stated that 'not a single particle of enriched uranium will leave Iran' and that the material is a national asset for domestic use"
  [Έθνος](https://www.ethnos.gr/world/article/424723/irantoemploytismenooyranioepanerxetaistoepikentrotondiafonionstissynomiliesmetishpa), published 21 October 2026

### Context (16 claims)

- "The criticisms from Iran are a response to statements made by Rafael Grossi on October 27th before the UN Security Council"
  [Red El Mayadeen](https://espanol.almayadeen.net/noticias/politica/2261113/iran-defiende-control-de-sus-reservas-de-uranio-y-cuestiona), published 5 November 2026
- "Grossi had expressed 'concern' in a speech to the UN Security Council on October 27th regarding Iran's declared stockpile of highly enriched uranium, calling for 'information and necessary access to verify it"
  [شبكة الميادين](https://www.almayadeen.net/news/politics/%d8%b7%d9%87%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b1%d8%af%d8%a7-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%b9%d9%85-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d9%83%d9%84-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%88%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%8a%d8%ae%d8%b6%d8%b9-%d9%84%d9%85%d8%aa), published 4 November 2026
- "A report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in May 2025 indicated that Iran possessed 9,247 kilograms of enriched uranium, with 408 kilograms enriched to a level above 60%"
  [Trend](https://www.trend.az/iran/4241854.html), published 2 November 2026
- "During his address to the UN Security Council, Rafael Grossi expressed concern about Iran's declared reserves of highly enriched uranium and requested "facilitating information and ensuring necessary access for verification"
  [Red El Mayadeen](https://espanol.almayadeen.net/noticias/politica/2261113/iran-defiende-control-de-sus-reservas-de-uranio-y-cuestiona), published 5 November 2026
- "Iran's mission to the UN in Vienna criticized the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, stating that he expresses concern about uranium stockpiles while remaining silent about attacks on Iran"
  [شبكة الميادين](https://www.almayadeen.net/news/politics/%d8%b7%d9%87%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b1%d8%af%d8%a7-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%b9%d9%85-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d9%83%d9%84-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%88%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%8a%d8%ae%d8%b6%d8%b9-%d9%84%d9%85%d8%aa), published 4 November 2026
- "Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated a few days prior that Russia was ready to mediate between the United States and Iran, and to accept Iranian enriched uranium if its possession was contentious in Tehran's relations with Washington"
  [Novosti](https://www.novosti.rs/planeta/svet/1667057/bagei-porucio-iran-nece-dozvoli-iznosenje-obogacenog-uranijuma-zemlje), published 2 November 2026
- "In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Russia remains ready for the export of enriched uranium from Iran"
  [Izvestia.ru](https://iz.ru/2194809/v-mid-irana-oprovergli-obsuzhdenie-vyvoza-obogashchennogo-urana-iz-strany-izi), published 2 November 2026
- "Rafael Grossi stated that the IAEA is communicating with Iran to address concerns about its nuclear program and clarify the status of materials at Iranian nuclear facilities, including 440 kg of highly enriched uranium"
  [VOV.vn](https://vov.vn/the-gioi/iaea-muon-tiep-can-luong-urani-da-lam-giau-cua-iran-post1345179.vov), published 27 October 2026
- "The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, urged Iran on October 27th to provide information and access to its previously declared enriched uranium"
  [VOV.vn](https://vov.vn/the-gioi/iaea-muon-tiep-can-luong-urani-da-lam-giau-cua-iran-post1345179.vov), published 27 October 2026
- "Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations in Vienna criticized the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, for expressing concern about the country's uranium reserves while remaining silent about bombings against its territory"
  [Red El Mayadeen](https://espanol.almayadeen.net/noticias/politica/2261113/iran-defiende-control-de-sus-reservas-de-uranio-y-cuestiona), published 5 November 2026
- "Iran's delegation criticized the IAEA Director-General's approach and questioned why he does not express concern about the accumulation of tons of weapons-grade nuclear materials and plutonium around the world, including in non-nuclear-weapon states"
  [Mehr News Agency](https://ar.mehrnews.com/news/1975284/%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%ab%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%af-%d9%86%d9%87%d8%ac-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%af%d9%88%d8%ac), published 5 November 2026
- "Grossi had previously claimed in an interview with Colombian radio station Caracol Radio, repeating political claims about Iran's peaceful nuclear program, that the ongoing activities have some worrying dimensions and that Tehran has not fully provided the transparency and access requested by the agency"
  [Mehr News Agency](https://ar.mehrnews.com/news/1975284/%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%ab%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%af-%d9%86%d9%87%d8%ac-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%af%d9%88%d8%ac), published 5 November 2026
- "Iran's Permanent Mission to the International Organizations in Vienna criticized the "double standard" approach towards Iran in response to recent statements by the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)"
  [Mehr News Agency](https://ar.mehrnews.com/news/1975284/%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%ab%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%af-%d9%86%d9%87%d8%ac-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%af%d9%88%d8%ac), published 5 November 2026
- "Iran's delegation emphasized that Grossi is well aware that the IAEA has audited every gram of Iranian nuclear material, and his own reports have never recorded any deviation of even one gram of this material"
  [Mehr News Agency](https://ar.mehrnews.com/news/1975284/%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%ab%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%af-%d9%86%d9%87%d8%ac-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%af%d9%88%d8%ac), published 5 November 2026
- "Iran maintains that its nuclear program has peaceful purposes, a stance reiterated two days prior by the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baghaei, who affirmed that Iran has demonstrated this peaceful nature on numerous occasions"
  [Red El Mayadeen](https://espanol.almayadeen.net/noticias/politica/2261113/iran-defiende-control-de-sus-reservas-de-uranio-y-cuestiona), published 5 November 2026
- "Iran has consistently affirmed the peaceful nature of its nuclear program"
  [شبكة الميادين](https://www.almayadeen.net/news/politics/%d8%b7%d9%87%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%b1%d8%af%d8%a7-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%b9%d9%85-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a-%d9%83%d9%84-%d8%ba%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%86%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%88%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%8a%d8%ae%d8%b6%d8%b9-%d9%84%d9%85%d8%aa), published 4 November 2026

## What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 12 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 6 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

- 'Outside of Iran and its influence' is subjective and may be disputed — no clear definition of what constitutes Iranian influence over an entity
- 'Credible reporting' as primary resolution source is undefined — no specific outlet or institution named
- Whether a mere statement of intent without formal agreement mechanism qualifies as 'publicly agrees' is ambiguous
- The phrase 'any portion thereof' is very broad — it is unclear how small a portion would satisfy the threshold
- No explicit definition of 'Iranian-aligned organizations' beyond the listed examples, leaving edge cases ambiguous
- Timezone boundary (11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026) vs. end date metadata (2027-01-01T04:59:00Z) is consistent but could cause confusion

## Publication history

- Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026.
- Published 30 October 2026; research dated 29 October 2026.

## Since the previous brief

Compared with research dated 29 October 2026.

This revision replaces research dated 29 October 2026 with research dated 5 November 2026. 13 of 15 cited sources are new; 2 are carried over.

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