# Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthrop 30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxanthropicrescind-26jun-0c3c24f0 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 7 November 2026 - Research dated: 7 November 2026 - Published: 7 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxanthropicrescind/will-the-us-government-rescind-the-anthropic-ban/kxanthropicrescind-26jun#kxanthropicrescind-26jun-27jan01 - Venue YES price: 33.0c at 7 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the Department of Defense or the White House announce an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027? ## How this market settles If the Department of Defense or the White House announces an official action rescinding, waiving, or materially modifying the supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic, so as to permit federal government or Department of Defense use of Anthropic's AI models or services before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (10 claims) - "A US Department of Defense official revealed to the BBC that the Pentagon has stopped using artificial intelligence (AI) tools from Anthropic" [風傳媒](https://www.storm.mg/article/11170392), published 7 October 2026 - "The Pentagon has stopped using artificial intelligence tools from Anthropic, according to a US Department of Defense official speaking to the BBC, after the company refused to remove security controls from its Claude model, which was deemed a national security risk" [العربي الجديد](https://www.aajeg.com/entertainment_media/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%ba%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%ae%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%b9%d9%86-%d8%a3%d9%86%d8%ab%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%af-%d8%a3%d8%b4%d9%87%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%aa%d8%b5%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%87%d8%a7-%d8%ae%d8%b7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%8b), published 6 October 2026 - "The United States Department of Defense has stopped using artificial intelligence (AI) tools from Anthropic, according to a Defense Department official speaking to the BBC" [umuryango.rw](https://umuryango.rw/amakuru/article/amerika-yahagaritse-gukoresha-ai-ya-anthropic-mu-bikorwa-bya-gisirikare), published 6 October 2026 - "The U.S. Department of Defense announced that it has stopped using the Claude model and other AI products from Anthropic" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261006093800009), published 6 October 2026 - "This action by the U.S. Department of Defense comes eight months after designating Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk company' in February, citing national security concerns, according to the BBC" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261006093800009), published 6 October 2026 - "In February, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth designated Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk company' and the Department of Defense announced it would cease using Anthropic products by the end of August, but the cessation of use was delayed by two months" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261006093800009), published 6 October 2026 - "However, earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Defense pressured Anthropic to 'remove Claude's safeguards and allow the military unrestricted access to Anthropic's AI products,' but Anthropic refused, citing 'concerns about mass surveillance and autonomous weapons" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261006093800009), published 6 October 2026 - "Anthropic refused the Department of Defense's demand to agree to 'all lawful use' of its technology, maintaining 'red lines' against its Claude AI model being used for mass domestic surveillance of Americans or in fully autonomous weapons systems" [JD Supra](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/what-anthropic-security-ruling-means-8235349/), published 5 October 2026 - "「國防-矽谷複合體」崛起 科技巨頭與軍方權力拉鋸 | LIFE生活網. 商傳媒｜責任編輯／綜合外電報導 一個聯邦法院近期維持了對人工智慧公司 Anthropic 的裁決，認定其為「供應鏈風險」，引發外界對美國國防部與矽谷科技公司之間日益複雜關係的關注。這也凸顯了「國防-矽谷複合體」（Pentagon-Silicon Complex）的崛起，意指科技業者對軍事技術使用方式的影響力漸增，可能挑戰政府在國家安全事務上的傳統權威。 Anthropic 已聲明不允許五角大廈將其技術用於國內監控或自主武器系統，但這場法律爭議的核心，在於誰有權決定美國製造的技術如何被軍方使用，以及誰來形塑美國的國家安全利益。 回溯歷史，美國前總統德懷特·艾森豪威爾（Dwight Eise" [LIFE 生活網](https://life.tw/article/%e5%9c%8b%e9%98%b2-%e7%9f%bd%e8%b0%b7%e8%a4%87%e5%90%88%e9%ab%94-%e5%b4%9b%e8%b5%b7-%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e5%b7%a8%e9%a0%ad%e8%88%87%e8%bb%8d%e6%96%b9%e6%ac%8a%e5%8a%9b%e6%8b%89%e9%8b%b8-3171619), published 6 October 2026 - "Pentagon Stays Off Claude Even as Anthropic Expands Into Other Agencies - Startup Fortune. Anthropic's $200 million Pentagon contract collapsed after it refused to drop safeguards against autonomous weapons, and a September 25 appeals court ruling kept Claude locked out of military systems for good. A federal appeals court sided with the Pentagon last month, and the supply chain risk lab" [Startup Fortune](https://startupfortune.com/pentagon-stays-off-claude-even-as-anthropic-expands-into-other-agencies/), published 5 October 2026 ### Context (20 claims) - "Amidst a legal dispute, the Department of Defense has signed contracts with other companies such as Google and OpenAI, while relations between Anthropic and the White House appear to be improving" [العربي الجديد](https://www.aajeg.com/entertainment_media/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%a7%d8%ba%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%ae%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%b9%d9%86-%d8%a3%d9%86%d8%ab%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83-%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%af-%d8%a3%d8%b4%d9%87%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%aa%d8%b5%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%87%d8%a7-%d8%ae%d8%b7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%8b), published 6 October 2026 - "Emil Michael, the US Deputy Secretary of Defense and co-chair of the White House's 'Superintelligence Force' (SIF), stated that if AI companies do not cooperate with the government, various administrative measures, including export controls, will be used to control their actions" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261020071700009), published 20 October 2026 - "The senior US administration official stated that the White House wants the US to review the models and ensure US systems are secure before sharing them with US partners, explaining, "Because they're American companies and this has been our policy with every new frontier model that comes out" [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-us-review-new-ai-models-before-uk-testers-2026-9), published 24 September 2026 - "Anthropic's Claude was considered a critical tool for processing vast amounts of information by former Department of Defense officials and contractors" [NEWS 24/7](https://www.news247.gr/technologia/apo-ergaleio-pliroforion-se-kindino-asfaleias-giati-to-pentagono-egkateleipse-tin-anthropic/), published 5 October 2026 - "A U.S. Department of Defense official informed the BBC that the Pentagon has stopped using Anthropic products" [Bredemarket](https://bredemarket.com/2026/10/06/the-joint-commitment-on-frontier-responsibilities-is-a-nothingburger/), published 6 October 2026 - "The U.S. Department of Defense is no longer using artificial intelligence tools from the company Anthropic, an official told the BBC" [Shekulli](https://shekulli.com.al/ne-listen-e-zeze-pentagoni-ndalon-e-inteligjences-artificiale-te-anthropic-i26370), published 5 October 2026 - "The White House asked OpenAI and Anthropic not to provide their new AI models to the British until they have been tested by the US government, according to Politico, citing an anonymous source and a senior US administration official" [Ведомости](https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2026/09/25/1231702-ne-peredavat-modeli-ii), published 24 September 2026 - "Anthropic has reportedly agreed to the White House's request, stating that its Claude Mythos 5.1 model was "only available to a set of US organizations" [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-us-review-new-ai-models-before-uk-testers-2026-9), published 24 September 2026 - "The White House requested that OpenAI and Anthropic not share their new artificial intelligence models with the UK government's testing agency until after they have been tested by the US government" [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-us-review-new-ai-models-before-uk-testers-2026-9), published 24 September 2026 - "The White House had asked AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic not to share new AI models with UK testers until US authorities complete their review, according to US media Politico on the 24th, citing US government officials and sources" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/jp/economy/wxjy4zabqnnofnei5vnkknx3ea-2026-09-24/), published 24 September 2026 - "A senior official from the Trump administration argued, "The White House wants the US to review the models first and ensure US systems are safe before these models are shared with US partners" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026092560537), published 25 September 2026 - "According to Politico on the 24th (local time), the White House recently requested OpenAI and Anthropic not to provide new AI models to the UK's AI Safety Institute (Aisi) until the US government's testing is finished" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026092560537), published 25 September 2026 - "The White House reportedly asked OpenAI and Anthropic not to respond to UK safety checks until the US government's review of new artificial intelligence (AI) models is complete" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026092560537), published 25 September 2026 - "An Anthropic blog post announced, "We're coordinating with the US government to expand access to a broader set of domestic and international partners as quickly as possible" [Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-us-review-new-ai-models-before-uk-testers-2026-9), published 24 September 2026 - "The Trump administration's request comes as the White House seeks to determine how the government should handle powerful new AI models that have leaked to external parties during testing" [enikos.gr](https://www.enikos.gr/international/ipa-o-lefkos-oikos-zitise-apo-tis-openai-kai-anthropic-na-min-diathesoun-ta-nea-ai-montela-tous-sto-inomeno-vasileio-o-logos/2649617/), published 24 September 2026 - "Sources stated that as of last week, the U.S. Department of Defense was still using Anthropic's Claude model for research, analysis, intelligence gathering, and in the Iran war" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261006093800009), published 6 October 2026 - "Despite the planned cessation, sources indicated to the BBC that Anthropic's Claude model was still in use by the Department of Defense for research, analysis, intelligence gathering, and military operations against Iran as of the previous week" [NEWS 24/7](https://www.news247.gr/technologia/apo-ergaleio-pliroforion-se-kindino-asfaleias-giati-to-pentagono-egkateleipse-tin-anthropic/), published 5 October 2026 - "These Google competencies could be used to protect sensitive military information, secure communications networks, and support the real-time integration of intelligence from various defence systems" [https://www.facebook.com/VARINDIAMagazine](https://www.varindia.com/news/can-trump%e2%80%99s-golden-dome-transform-google%e2%80%99s-fortunes), published 1 November 2026 - "El Pentágono deja de utilizar las herramientas de IA de Anthropic tras incluir a la empresa en una lista negra, según pudo saber la BBC" [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/mundo/articles/c5398l9rzj3jo), published 5 October 2026 - "Pentagon no longer using Anthropic AI tools, BBC told" [BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5j9x9pr0240o), published 5 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 18 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 6 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The existence of a 'supply-chain-risk designation or phaseout directive applicable to Anthropic' is not confirmed in publicly available information as of the knowledge cutoff, making it unclear what baseline condition triggers the market or whether such a designation currently exists. - The term 'materially modifying' is subjective and could be disputed — there is no defined threshold for what constitutes a material modification versus a minor procedural change. - The phrase 'permit federal government or Department of Defense use' is ambiguous — it is unclear whether partial permission (e.g., limited pilot programs, specific agency exemptions) would qualify. - 'Official action' is undefined — it is unclear whether executive orders, memoranda, press releases, regulatory guidance, or informal announcements qualify. - No specific official source or document repository is named for verifying the resolution condition, creating potential disputes about what counts as an authoritative announcement. - Timezone ambiguity: the end date is specified as 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which may differ from midnight in key U.S. jurisdictions (EST is UTC-5, so this corresponds to 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026). ## Publication history - Published 7 November 2026; research dated 7 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.