# Will Bitcoin exceed $95,000 by Nov 30, 2026? (Above $95,000) 30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxbtcabove95by-30nov262359-9500000-0ae7c3ef - Category: crypto - Evidence collected: 7 November 2026 - Research dated: 7 November 2026 - Published: 7 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcabove95by/will-bitcoin-exceed-95-000-by-nov-30-2026/kxbtcabove95by-30nov262359-9500000#kxbtcabove95by-30nov262359-9500000-yes - Venue YES price: 5.0c at 7 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will Bitcoin exceed $95,000 by Nov 30, 2026? (Above $95,000) ## How this market settles If a qualifying one-minute average of the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) is above $95,000 after issuance at Nov 2, 2026 at 12:45 PM EST and before Nov 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes. The source is CF Benchmarks. Each minute after issuance and before the deadline is evaluated separately: discard the highest 20% and lowest 20% of BRTI observations in that minute and average the remaining 60%. The qualifying average must be strictly greater than the threshold; equality does not qualify. An earlier qualifying minute counts even if Bitcoin subsequently falls below the threshold. Last trading is the earlier of the first 10:00 AM ET following a qualifying occurrence or the stated deadline. Expiration follows BTCMINMAX, including its data-availability contingencies. If no data is available on the Expiration Date at the Expiration Time, the market resolves to No. Revisions after expiration are disregarded. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (9 claims) - "On November 5, 2026, Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark after briefly reaching $81,000" [Viral Mag - Votre source d'actualités](https://viralmag.fr/bitcoin-novembre-2026-le-rebond-peut-il-tenir-face-a-la-pression/), published 5 November 2026 - "A daily close above the $81,000-$82,000 zone is needed to invalidate the bearish pressure and exit the descending channel" [Viral Mag - Votre source d'actualités](https://viralmag.fr/bitcoin-novembre-2026-le-rebond-peut-il-tenir-face-a-la-pression/), published 5 November 2026 - "The current price of Bitcoin represents a $755 decrease from yesterday morning and a $29,586 loss compared to the price one year ago" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Bitcoin's price is roughly $22,964 lower than it was at this time last year" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-04-2026/), published 4 November 2026 - "By the end of 2025, Bitcoin's price was about 30% below the record high it had reached a few months prior" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-04-2026/), published 4 November 2026 - "As of 7 a.m. Eastern Time today, one Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $78,520.27" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-04-2026/), published 4 November 2026 - "As of 6:45 a.m. Eastern Time today, the price of one Bitcoin (1 BTC) is $76,995.40" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Bitcoin price entered November defending the $76,000 level, which is the average cost basis of short-term holders" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-price-outlook-november-2026-020000012.html), published 3 November 2026 - "Analyst Altcoin Sherpa described the current market zone as a 'chop zone,' suggesting that the market could remain indecisive for several more weeks until Bitcoin decisively breaks either $90,000 upwards or $75,000 downwards" [Viral Mag - Votre source d'actualités](https://viralmag.fr/bitcoin-novembre-2026-le-rebond-peut-il-tenir-face-a-la-pression/), published 5 November 2026 ### Context (21 claims) - "Over the past decade, Bitcoin's value has increased by more than 15,000%" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-04-2026/), published 4 November 2026 - "In 2009, Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 Bitcoins for pizza, which would be valued at over $668 million today" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-04-2026/), published 4 November 2026 - "Laszlo Hanyecz famously spent 10,000 Bitcoins on two pizzas in the early days of Bitcoin; today, those Bitcoins would be worth over $668 million" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Over the past decade, Bitcoin's price has increased by more than 15,000%" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Charlotte van Brabander prefers exchange-traded products that track the Bitcoin price for practical reasons, while self-custody of Bitcoin requires managing access personally" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 - "According to two experts, a good Bitcoin plan should start with your goals, risk tolerance, purchase method, storage, and administration, not the price" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 - "Bitcoin can be used as an investment, a hedge against inflation, or a tool for financial independence" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 - "Google removed apps from the Play Store in 2018 that mined cryptocurrencies on the device, allowing only apps that manage mining remotely" [cryptoticker.io](https://cryptoticker.io/de/bitcoin-mining-app-smartphone/), published 6 November 2026 - "Charlotte van Brabander views Bitcoin as a long-term investment and a potential hedge against inflation, allocating her crypto investments roughly equally between Bitcoin and Ethereum, primarily employing a buy-and-hold strategy" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 - "Michaël van de Poppe currently holds no Bitcoin privately but has other cryptocurrencies, aiming to build wealth within the crypto market before diversifying later" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 - "Bitcoin has a market capitalization of approximately $1.33 trillion" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-04-2026/), published 4 November 2026 - "Bitcoin's price is up $1,524.87 from yesterday morning" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-04-2026/), published 4 November 2026 - "Bitcoin operates as a decentralized digital currency on a peer-to-peer network, without control from a government, bank, or central authority" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Bitcoin allows for the transfer of value directly between individuals, bypassing financial intermediaries" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency ever created and remains the most widely recognized digital coin" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately $1.33 trillion, significantly higher than Ethereum's market value of roughly $233 billion" [Fortune](https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-11-03-2026/), published 3 November 2026 - "Bitcoin is now almost exclusively mined using specialized hardware called ASICs, which are chips designed solely for calculating SHA-256 checksums and are millions of times faster than general-purpose processors" [cryptoticker.io](https://cryptoticker.io/de/bitcoin-mining-app-smartphone/), published 6 November 2026 - "A Bitcoin mining app on a smartphone does not mine Bitcoin worth the electricity cost" [cryptoticker.io](https://cryptoticker.io/de/bitcoin-mining-app-smartphone/), published 6 November 2026 - "For those with limited time to monitor the market, Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA), investing a fixed amount periodically, is recommended to avoid the need to time the market perfectly, though it does not protect against losses during price drops" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 - "Both Charlotte van Brabander and Michaël van de Poppe warn against making decisions out of fear of missing out (FOMO)" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 - "Michaël van de Poppe expressed concerns about Dutch taxes on unrealized capital gains, noting that Dutch plans for Box 3 are still subject to change and uncertain" [Crypto Insiders](https://www.crypto-insiders.nl/nieuws/bitcoin/vijf-lessen-uit-bitcoin-amsterdam-voor-je-eigen-bitcoinstrategie/), published 7 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 5 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The description references an issuance date of Nov 2, 2026 but the market end date is Dec 1, 2026 UTC (Nov 30, 2026 11:59 PM EST), creating a potentially long window with unclear intermediate checkpoints. - The phrase 'discard the highest 20% and lowest 20% of BRTI observations in that minute' is ambiguous if the number of observations per minute is not evenly divisible by 5, leaving uncertainty about rounding. - Last trading defined as 'the earlier of the first 10:00 AM ET following a qualifying occurrence or the stated deadline' introduces ambiguity about what 'first 10:00 AM ET following' means if a qualifying event occurs exactly at or after 10:00 AM ET. - Reference to 'BTCMINMAX' expiration and data-availability contingencies is an external document not fully defined here, creating potential ambiguity in edge cases. - Timezone handling: the window uses EST but the end date metadata is expressed in UTC; any daylight saving time transitions between Nov 2 and Nov 30, 2026 could affect boundary times. ## Publication history - Published 7 November 2026; research dated 7 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.