# Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 1ㅤ? 30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxcancuts-26dec31-bec1eee5 - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 9 November 2026 - Research dated: 9 November 2026 - Published: 9 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcancuts/number-of-bank-of-canada-rate-cuts-in-2026/kxcancuts-26dec31#kxcancuts-26dec31-e1 - Venue YES price: 5.0c at 9 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 be exactly 1ㅤ? ## How this market settles If the number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026 is exactly 1ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on). ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (16 claims) - "The Bank of Canada's previous interest rate increase occurred on October 28th, raising the overnight target by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the first such increase since July 2023" [EconoTimes](https://econotimes.com/bank-of-canada-keeps-another-rate-hike-in-play-as-oil-lifts-inflation-1770225), published 3 November 2026 - "Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that another interest rate increase is possible because elevated oil prices are keeping inflation above the target, a risk that could prolong pressure on households and businesses until 2027" [EconoTimes](https://econotimes.com/bank-of-canada-keeps-another-rate-hike-in-play-as-oil-lifts-inflation-1770225), published 3 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada's decision on October 28, 2026, to raise the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% has reignited the debate between variable and fixed-rate mortgages" [arabcanadanews.ca](https://arabcanadanews.ca/article/mktrdo-alrhn-alaakary-fy-knda-ytmskon-balfayd-almtghyr-rghm-rfaa-bnk-knda-llfayd), published 4 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada's surveys and historical data suggest that businesses, which have largely absorbed increased input costs thus far, may pass more of these costs onto consumers in the upcoming year" [EconoTimes](https://econotimes.com/bank-of-canada-keeps-another-rate-hike-in-play-as-oil-lifts-inflation-1770225), published 3 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada expects inflation to approach 3.5% by the end of the current year and to remain at or above 3% through a significant portion of 2027" [EconoTimes](https://econotimes.com/bank-of-canada-keeps-another-rate-hike-in-play-as-oil-lifts-inflation-1770225), published 3 November 2026 - "Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated on November 3, 2026, that the bank might need to raise interest rates again if inflationary pressures persist" [arabcanadanews.ca](https://arabcanadanews.ca/article/bnk-knda-yloh-brfaa-alfayd-mgdda-lmoagh-altdkhm), published 3 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada's decision on October 28, 2026, raised the key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target overnight rate to 2.5%" [arabcanadanews.ca](https://arabcanadanews.ca/article/bnk-knda-yloh-brfaa-alfayd-mgdda-lmoagh-altdkhm), published 3 November 2026 - "Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem indicated that further interest rate hikes might be necessary" [Todayville](https://www.todayville.com/canadian-governments-should-double-down-on-housing-policy-reform-as-interest-rates-rise/), published 4 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada increased its policy interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.5 per cent, marking its first increase since July 2023" [Todayville](https://www.todayville.com/canadian-governments-should-double-down-on-housing-policy-reform-as-interest-rates-rise/), published 4 November 2026 - "Market pricing indicates a 71% probability that the Bank of Canada will maintain its current interest rate at its December meeting, an increase from 62% the previous day" [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/canadian-dollar-set-for-worst-week-since-september-on-weak-jobs-data/), published 6 November 2026 - "The chances of the Bank of Canada implementing a 25 basis point rate hike at its December meeting have decreased to 30%, down from 37% a day earlier" [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/canadian-dollar-set-for-worst-week-since-september-on-weak-jobs-data/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate for the first time in three years, increasing it from 2.25% to 2.50%" [Le Devoir](https://www.ledevoir.com/economie/finances-personnelles/1022408/apres-hausse-taux-directeur-est-ce-attend-prets-hypothecaires), published 5 November 2026 - "Many Canadian borrowers with variable-rate mortgages are delaying switching to fixed rates after the Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point on October 28 to 2.50%" [arabcanadanews.ca](https://arabcanadanews.ca/article/mktrdo-alrhn-alaakary-fy-knda-ytmskon-balfayd-almtghyr-rghm-rfaa-bnk-knda-llfayd), published 4 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada stated in its announcement that inflation remained high, primarily driven by rising energy prices, and indicated the possibility of further interest rate hikes if inflationary pressures persist" [arabcanadanews.ca](https://arabcanadanews.ca/article/mktrdo-alrhn-alaakary-fy-knda-ytmskon-balfayd-almtghyr-rghm-rfaa-bnk-knda-llfayd), published 4 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada (BoC) will proceed cautiously with further interest rate hikes due to significant uncertainty in the business and geopolitical landscape, according to BoC Governor Tiff Macklem" [Valor Econômico](https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/11/03/presidente-do-bc-do-canad-promete-cautela-em-novos-aumentos-de-juros.ghtml), published 3 November 2026 - "Tiff Macklem explicitly stated, "There could be a need to raise the policy rate further" [EconoTimes](https://econotimes.com/bank-of-canada-keeps-another-rate-hike-in-play-as-oil-lifts-inflation-1770225), published 3 November 2026 ### Context (14 claims) - "Canada's unemployment rate increased to 6.7% in October, a six-month high, up from 6.5% in September, according to Statistics Canada" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-unemployment-rate-edges-up-six-month-high-october-2026-11-06/), published 6 November 2026 - "The employment rate in Canada fell by 0.1 percentage points to 60.5% in October" [Forextraders.com - World's best forex deals and strategy](https://forextraders.com/forex-news/canada-loses-4700-jobs-usd-cad-rises/), published 6 November 2026 - "Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in October" [Forextraders.com - World's best forex deals and strategy](https://forextraders.com/forex-news/canada-loses-4700-jobs-usd-cad-rises/), published 6 November 2026 - "The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for December 9, 2026" [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/canadian-dollar-set-for-worst-week-since-september-on-weak-jobs-data/), published 6 November 2026 - "Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey for October 2026 reported that Alberta lost 24,000 jobs in October, following a gain of 23,000 jobs in September" [CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-unemployment-canada-calgary-october-9.7412864), published 6 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision on December 9, 2026, with its direction depending on economic and inflation data, as well as energy price developments" [arabcanadanews.ca](https://arabcanadanews.ca/article/bnk-knda-yloh-brfaa-alfayd-mgdda-lmoagh-altdkhm), published 3 November 2026 - "The Bank of Canada estimated in its 2026 Financial Stability Report that holders of pandemic-era five-year fixed mortgages, about 12 per cent of all mortgages, could see average payment increases of around 15 per cent upon renewal between mid-2026 and mid-2027" [Todayville](https://www.todayville.com/canadian-governments-should-double-down-on-housing-policy-reform-as-interest-rates-rise/), published 4 November 2026 - "Daren King, chief economist at National Bank, predicts further rate increases in the coming months, stating, "The Bank of Canada is very concerned about seeing inflation spread to other sectors of the economy. We expect other increases in the coming months" [Le Devoir](https://www.ledevoir.com/economie/finances-personnelles/1022408/apres-hausse-taux-directeur-est-ce-attend-prets-hypothecaires), published 5 November 2026 - "Dave Larocque of Integrated Mortgage Planners noted that his clients who chose variable rates are aware of the risks associated with rate changes and he has not observed a surge in calls requesting a switch to fixed rates following the Bank of Canada's decision, considering the choice in many cases to be a long-term strategy rather than a short-term reaction" [arabcanadanews.ca](https://arabcanadanews.ca/article/mktrdo-alrhn-alaakary-fy-knda-ytmskon-balfayd-almtghyr-rghm-rfaa-bnk-knda-llfayd), published 4 November 2026 - "Canada's economy experienced a growth of 3.3% in the second quarter, with recent indicators suggesting approximately 2% growth in the third quarter" [EconoTimes](https://econotimes.com/bank-of-canada-keeps-another-rate-hike-in-play-as-oil-lifts-inflation-1770225), published 3 November 2026 - "The ongoing deterioration in Canada's labor market appears to be a significant factor influencing market expectations regarding the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions" [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/canadian-dollar-set-for-worst-week-since-september-on-weak-jobs-data/), published 6 November 2026 - "Market participants are closely monitoring the situation, with expectations that the Bank of Canada might adopt a more cautious approach in light of weakening economic indicators" [Crypto Briefing](https://cryptobriefing.com/canadian-dollar-set-for-worst-week-since-september-on-weak-jobs-data/), published 6 November 2026 - "According to a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) report, Canadian home prices are approximately double their 2005 levels, even after adjusting for inflation" [Todayville](https://www.todayville.com/canadian-governments-should-double-down-on-housing-policy-reform-as-interest-rates-rise/), published 4 November 2026 - "Windsor's unemployment rate increased to 7.5% in October, a 0.2 percentage point rise from the previous month, according to Statistics Canada" [CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/windsor-s-unemployment-rate-rose-to-7-5-in-october-9.7412265), published 6 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 9 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The question contains a Unicode whitespace character (ㅤ) after '1' which may be a formatting artifact and could cause ambiguity about whether the threshold is '1' cut or some other value - No specific official source for Bank of Canada rate decisions is cited for resolution - It is unclear whether a 50bp single-meeting cut counts as 2 cuts or 1 cut — the description implies 50bp = 2 cuts regardless of whether done in one or two meetings - Timezone of 'in 2026' is not specified — unclear if this means Bank of Canada announcement dates in ET or UTC - No clarification on what counts as a 'cut' if the Bank of Canada moves to a non-25bp increment system ## Publication history - Published 9 November 2026; research dated 9 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.