# Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Board meeting? (Maintain current rate) 30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxcbdecisionaustralia-26dec07-d1e688e1 - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 7 November 2026 - Research dated: 7 November 2026 - Published: 7 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionaustralia/reserve-bank-of-australia-rate-decision-in-december/kxcbdecisionaustralia-26dec07#kxcbdecisionaustralia-26dec07-hold - Venue YES price: 94.0c at 7 November 2026 - Market closes: 8 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the Reserve Bank of Australia maintain the current rate at the December Monetary Policy Board meeting? (Maintain current rate) ## How this market settles If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of maintain current rate at its December Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (12 claims) - "The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85% at its meeting" [finder.com.au](https://www.finder.com.au/news/rba-cash-rate-decision-november-2026), published 3 November 2026 - "Australia's Reserve Bank board has decided to increase interest rates for the fifth time in 2026" [Australian Broadcasting Corporation](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-03/tough-christmas-looms-amid-inflation-interest-rate-rise/107340208), published 3 November 2026 - "The Reserve Bank of Australia increased the official interest rate to 4.85 percent" [WAtoday](https://www.watoday.com.au/national/nsw/everyone-is-feeling-the-pain-interest-rate-hike-hits-sydney-hard-20261103-p61auc.html), published 3 November 2026 - "The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board voted 6-3 to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%" [Mortgage Professional America Magazine](https://www.mpamag.com/au/news/general/brokers-must-step-up-as-mortgage-repayments-set-to-soar/595896), published 3 November 2026 - "Macquarie is passing on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate hike in full, affecting mortgage holders from November 19, 2026" [Yahoo7 Finance](https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-bank-pass-rates-pain-040503740.html), published 3 November 2026 - "This interest rate increase is the highest in Australia since the global financial crisis" [WAtoday](https://www.watoday.com.au/national/nsw/everyone-is-feeling-the-pain-interest-rate-hike-hits-sydney-hard-20261103-p61auc.html), published 3 November 2026 - "The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to increase the cash rate to 4.85 per cent on Tuesday due to persistent inflation above the target band" [News24](https://www.news24.com.au/business/real-estate/another-interest-rate-hike-on-tuesday-to-bring-mortgage-pain-to-early-1990s-level-expert-reveals-ahead-of-rba-decision/news-story/0601d358a5abfdc6a777a06b63b962fd), published 2 November 2026 - "This marks the fifth interest rate hike in 2026, with previous increases in February, March, May, and September" [Yahoo7 Finance](https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-bank-pass-rates-pain-040503740.html), published 3 November 2026 - "Australians are spending larger portions of their income on mortgage repayments, making a potential rate hike on Tuesday feel as severe as the 15 per cent rates experienced in the 1990s" [News24](https://www.news24.com.au/business/real-estate/another-interest-rate-hike-on-tuesday-to-bring-mortgage-pain-to-early-1990s-level-expert-reveals-ahead-of-rba-decision/news-story/0601d358a5abfdc6a777a06b63b962fd), published 2 November 2026 - "The Reserve Bank anticipates that inflation will not return to its target band of between 2 and 3 per cent until the second half of next year, due to higher oil prices and stronger-than-anticipated domestic price pressures" [Australian Broadcasting Corporation](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-03/tough-christmas-looms-amid-inflation-interest-rate-rise/107340208), published 3 November 2026 - "Macquarie head of personal banking Ben Perham stated, "With household budgets already feeling the strain, today's decision by the RBA will be challenging for many Australians" [Yahoo7 Finance](https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-bank-pass-rates-pain-040503740.html), published 3 November 2026 - "Labor treasurer Jim Chalmers said that today's decision was widely expected, but that doesn't make it any easier for Australian families and businesses to absorb" [Mortgage Professional America Magazine](https://www.mpamag.com/au/news/general/brokers-must-step-up-as-mortgage-repayments-set-to-soar/595896), published 3 November 2026 ### Context (18 claims) - "The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) expected interest rate hike will not be effective in reducing inflation" [realestate.com.au](https://www.realestate.com.au/news/reserve-bank-interest-rate-hikes-fail-to-stop-inflation-as-mortgage-holders-suffer/), published 2 November 2026 - "Ayesha Kamal also stated, "There's no sign of [interest rates] slowing down or going down. It's of course worrying, and the price of every grocery and everything is going up. It impacts everything" [WAtoday](https://www.watoday.com.au/national/nsw/everyone-is-feeling-the-pain-interest-rate-hike-hits-sydney-hard-20261103-p61auc.html), published 3 November 2026 - "Greg Jericho argued that the RBA's decision to lift interest rates punishes people who are already being punished by their bank and that inflation is driven by fuel costs and corporate profits, not by ordinary Australians spending too much" [Mirage News](https://www.miragenews.com/big-four-banks-profit-as-rate-rise-hits-1770934/), published 3 November 2026 - "Macquarie has become the first major bank to increase interest rates for mortgage holders and savers" [Yahoo7 Finance](https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/first-bank-pass-rates-pain-040503740.html), published 3 November 2026 - "Raising interest rates benefits homeowners who have paid off their mortgages by increasing their investment returns, potentially offsetting the impact on mortgage holders" [realestate.com.au](https://www.realestate.com.au/news/reserve-bank-interest-rate-hikes-fail-to-stop-inflation-as-mortgage-holders-suffer/), published 2 November 2026 - "Landlords may increase rents to cover higher borrowing costs when interest rates rise, contributing to inflation as rent increases are included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)" [realestate.com.au](https://www.realestate.com.au/news/reserve-bank-interest-rate-hikes-fail-to-stop-inflation-as-mortgage-holders-suffer/), published 2 November 2026 - "Economists suggest the federal government has additional measures it could employ to reduce persistent inflation, thereby lessening the burden on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)" [nine.com.au](https://www.nine.com.au/australia-news/inflation-unpopular-policies-could-be-what-s-needed-to-counteract-reserve-bank-of-australia-rate-rises-20261102-p619lj.html), published 1 November 2026 - "The article suggests that alternative methods for controlling inflation should be considered because interest rate hikes are not working and borrowers are being excessively burdened" [realestate.com.au](https://www.realestate.com.au/news/reserve-bank-interest-rate-hikes-fail-to-stop-inflation-as-mortgage-holders-suffer/), published 2 November 2026 - "New analysis by The Australia Institute reveals that the big four banks are making record profits while mortgage holders are impacted by the RBA's interest rate rises" [Mirage News](https://www.miragenews.com/big-four-banks-profit-as-rate-rise-hits-1770934/), published 3 November 2026 - "Zara stated, "I think it's just crippling people that have mortgages," and questioned, "Why should we be the only country that has five interest rate increases in a year?" [WAtoday](https://www.watoday.com.au/national/nsw/everyone-is-feeling-the-pain-interest-rate-hike-hits-sydney-hard-20261103-p61auc.html), published 3 November 2026 - "The increased interest rate adds approximately $100 per month to repayments on a 30-year $600,000 mortgage" [WAtoday](https://www.watoday.com.au/national/nsw/everyone-is-feeling-the-pain-interest-rate-hike-hits-sydney-hard-20261103-p61auc.html), published 3 November 2026 - "When asked about the impact of the rate increase on Australians, Kumar responded, "Everyone is feeling the pain" [WAtoday](https://www.watoday.com.au/national/nsw/everyone-is-feeling-the-pain-interest-rate-hike-hits-sydney-hard-20261103-p61auc.html), published 3 November 2026 - "REA Group senior economist Angus Moore stated that a Tuesday rate hike would bring mortgage repayment burdens back to the same level as the early 1990s, when interest rates reached 15 per cent" [News24](https://www.news24.com.au/business/real-estate/another-interest-rate-hike-on-tuesday-to-bring-mortgage-pain-to-early-1990s-level-expert-reveals-ahead-of-rba-decision/news-story/0601d358a5abfdc6a777a06b63b962fd), published 2 November 2026 - "The Australia Institute's analysis shows that banks now make an average profit of $266,000 from a 30-year home loan of $731,000 for an average owner-occupier" [Mirage News](https://www.miragenews.com/big-four-banks-profit-as-rate-rise-hits-1770934/), published 3 November 2026 - "35% of Australian borrowers in Finder's Consumer Sentiment Tracker are currently struggling with home loan repayments" [finder.com.au](https://www.finder.com.au/news/rba-cash-rate-decision-november-2026), published 3 November 2026 - "Angus Moore noted that Australia's relatively low unemployment rate is an advantage for modern homeowners compared to those in the 1990s" [News24](https://www.news24.com.au/business/real-estate/another-interest-rate-hike-on-tuesday-to-bring-mortgage-pain-to-early-1990s-level-expert-reveals-ahead-of-rba-decision/news-story/0601d358a5abfdc6a777a06b63b962fd), published 2 November 2026 - "Homeowners who have paid off their mortgages, representing about one-third of the Australian adult population, are more likely to engage in discretionary spending" [realestate.com.au](https://www.realestate.com.au/news/reserve-bank-interest-rate-hikes-fail-to-stop-inflation-as-mortgage-holders-suffer/), published 2 November 2026 - "This average profit per home loan has increased by $40,000 since interest rates began rising earlier this year, according to the analysis" [Mirage News](https://www.miragenews.com/big-four-banks-profit-as-rate-rise-hits-1770934/), published 3 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 9 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The specific year of the December meeting is ambiguous — the end date is 2026-12-08, suggesting this refers to December 2026, but no year is explicitly stated in the question. - The 'current rate' is not defined in the question — it refers to whatever the primary policy rate is at the time of the meeting, which could have changed from when the market was created. - The primary policy rate is not explicitly named; if the RBA uses multiple rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count but 'primary' is not officially defined in the description. - Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution, but no mechanism is specified for how to handle them in the context of determining what 'current rate' means at the December meeting. ## Publication history - Published 7 November 2026; research dated 7 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.