# Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? 24 dated claims from 3 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 6 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17-83b8226c - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 6 November 2026 - Research dated: 6 November 2026 - Published: 6 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionjapan/bank-of-japan-rate-decision-in-december/kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17#kxcbdecisionjapan-26dec17-h25 - Venue YES price: 81.0c at 6 November 2026 - Market closes: 18 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting? ## How this market settles If the Bank of Japan takes the action of Hike 25bps at December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes). ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (13 claims) - "Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that a December interest rate hike is highly probable" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "The Bank of Japan (BOJ) declared victory in its 14-year effort to achieve its price target and stated that its policy is entering a new phase focused on preventing inflation from overshooting" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "Lin Qichao predicts that the Bank of Japan will likely decide to raise interest rates by one notch to 1.5% from the current 1.25% at its December meeting" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "Ueda also mentioned that the board will focus its policy discussions on upside price risks, including at the upcoming meeting, suggesting a high likelihood of increasing the policy rate to 1.5% in December" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "Market expectations are that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again in December to curb inflation, given the continued rise in Japan's core inflation" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "Nobuyasu Atago, former BOJ official and chief economist at Rakuten Securities Economic Research Institute, stated that based on recent BOJ communications, a December rate hike is 'pretty much a done deal'" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the second quarter, with businesses increasing their spending despite challenges from the Middle East conflict" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "Japan's annual core inflation reached 2.1% in September, surpassing the BOJ's 2% target due to rising price pressures that offset the impact of fuel subsidies" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "BOJ staff calculations estimate Japan's nominal neutral rate, the rate that neither stimulates nor slows the economy, to be between 1.1% and 2.5%" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "The Bank of Japan decided last week to maintain interest rates and, for the first time, stated that the core inflation rate has reached its 2% target" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "Lin Qichao, Chief Economist at Cathay United Bank, stated that Japanese inflation is highly correlated with imported inflation, with a transmission lag of about six to nine months" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "Lin Qichao pointed out that imported inflation in Japan has significantly increased since May, suggesting that domestic inflation is likely to continue rising in the first half of next year" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "Experts predict that the Japanese yen interest rate will be raised to 1.5% in December due to the BOJ's tougher stance on inflation" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (11 claims) - "The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its interest rate unchanged last Friday" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 - "Luo Wei, Chief Economist at Fubon Financial Holdings, anticipates that the US, Japan, and European central banks will each raise interest rates by one notch in December, considering the unresolved Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situations, increased global stock market volatility, relatively high oil prices, and the strong US economy" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "Kazuo Ueda stated that the BOJ decided to postpone a rate hike to further examine economic and price developments, a statement similar to remarks made in July before the bank raised rates in September" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/boj-locks-december-hike-neutral-rate-uncertainty-muddies-outlook-2026-11-02/), published 2 November 2026 - "David Chao, Global Market Strategist for Asia-Pacific at Invesco in Singapore, commented that the 'hawkish' stance on inflation in the initial report sets the stage for a potential interest rate hike in December" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 - "Luo Wei expects the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Euro to maintain their current trends until December, with the US dollar index staying at a relatively high level of 101 to 102, and neither the Japanese yen nor the Euro being able to strengthen independently" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "Lin Qichao also noted that major central banks will face a significant challenge next year due to the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz; if oil prices remain high, global economic conditions could be affected, posing a dilemma for further interest rate hikes" [UDN](https://udn.com/news/story/7239/9851221), published 2 November 2026 - "The BOJ maintained its short-term interest rate at 1.25% with the support of 8 out of 9 members of the Policy Board" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 - "The BOJ adjusted its inflation forecast upwards and reaffirmed its readiness to continue raising borrowing costs to curb rising inflation risks" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 - "In its latest Economic and Inflation Outlook report, the BOJ stated that risks to the consumer price index (CPI) outlook are skewed to the upside" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 - "BOJ emphasized that maintaining the core CPI at around 2% is crucial to prevent risks of the core CPI exceeding the 2% price stability target, thereby avoiding negative impacts on the future economy" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 - "BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated at a press conference that the BOJ's goal is to achieve the price target sustainably and stably, and they have not yet reached their goal" [stockbiz.vn](https://stockbiz.vn/tin-tuc/chuyen-gia-nhtw-nhat-se-tang-lai-suat-vao-thang-12/42574922), published 2 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 24 claims from 3 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The exact date of the December 2026 Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting is not specified — if the meeting falls after 2026-12-18T03:29:00Z, resolution may be unclear. - The description states the market resolves based on the 'primary policy rate' but does not explicitly name which BoJ rate instrument qualifies as primary (e.g., overnight call rate target vs. other rates), which could cause disputes if the BoJ adjusts its framework. - Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings are excluded, but the boundary between 'emergency' and 'scheduled' meetings could be ambiguous if the BoJ calls an unscheduled meeting. - Timezone of the announcement relative to the 2026-12-18T03:29:00Z expiration is not clarified, which could matter if the BoJ announces late in Japan Standard Time. ## Publication history - Published 6 November 2026; research dated 6 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.