# Will the Bank of Korea hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting? 30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxcbdecisionkorea-26nov25-0775b218 - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 5 November 2026 - Research dated: 5 November 2026 - Published: 5 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcbdecisionkorea/bank-of-korea-rate-decision-in-november/kxcbdecisionkorea-26nov25#kxcbdecisionkorea-26nov25-h25 - Venue YES price: 91.0c at 5 November 2026 - Market closes: 26 November 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the Bank of Korea hike 1-25bps at the November Monetary Policy Board meeting? ## How this market settles If the Bank of Korea takes the action of hike 1-25bps at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (7 claims) - "Shin Hyun-song reiterated that the Bank of Korea's monetary policy will remain restrictive until the bank is confident that inflation will timely converge to its 2% target" [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-korea-gov-shin-makes-case-for-forward-guidance-that-preserves-flexibility-ce785ddddf8cf522), published 13 October 2026 - "Shin Hyun-song indicated that guidance surrounding the Bank of Korea's August meeting, which included a rate increase, signaled a potential hike and 'turned out to have a beneficial effect on the long-term yield" [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-korea-gov-shin-makes-case-for-forward-guidance-that-preserves-flexibility-ce785ddddf8cf522), published 13 October 2026 - "Concerns were raised during the parliamentary audit about a potential policy conflict between monetary and fiscal policies, given the Bank of Korea's consecutive base rate hikes in July and August and the government's large-scale expansionary fiscal measures" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101214214323603), published 12 October 2026 - "During a parliamentary audit on October 12th, Governor Shin Hyun-song responded to concerns that the government's expansionary fiscal policy might increase inflationary pressures and conflict with the Bank of Korea's tight monetary policy" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101214214323603), published 12 October 2026 - "Governor Shin Hyun-song acknowledged that forward guidance always has pros and cons, but noted that the Bank of Korea adopted a monetary policy direction towards raising interest rates slightly earlier than other major countries" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101211280754081), published 12 October 2026 - "Lawmaker Kim Young-hwan questioned the Bank of Korea's decision to raise the base rate twice consecutively in July and August, citing demand-side inflationary pressures as the reason" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101211062528671), published 12 October 2026 - "The Bank of Korea's current status report stated, "In the short term, there is significant uncertainty surrounding the housing market and household debt," and "It is necessary to maintain a consistent policy stance so as not to stimulate expectations of housing price increases and the growth of household debt" [마이데일리](https://mydaily.co.kr/page/view/2026101214021551228), published 12 October 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (23 claims) - "The Bank of Korea's 'dot plot,' which visualizes the interest rate outlook of its Monetary Policy Board members six months ahead, has faced criticism for failing to accurately reflect rapidly changing economic and financial conditions and for showing excessively large deviations between forecast periods" [한겨레신문](https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/economy_general/1282151.html), published 13 October 2026 - "The Bank of Korea introduced its own 'K dot plot' earlier this year, which displays policymaker rate projections and is modeled after the Federal Reserve's guidance" [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-korea-gov-shin-makes-case-for-forward-guidance-that-preserves-flexibility-ce785ddddf8cf522), published 13 October 2026 - "Speaking at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Tuesday, Shin Hyun-song described the challenge as finding a 'sweet spot' in offering insight into central banks' thinking without restricting policymakers" [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-korea-gov-shin-makes-case-for-forward-guidance-that-preserves-flexibility-ce785ddddf8cf522), published 13 October 2026 - "Lawmaker Park Soo-young reiterated the Bank of Korea's role, referencing the government's decision on August 30th during the Macroeconomic and Financial Issues Briefing (F4 Meeting) to use excess tax revenue for housing stability, national jobs, and inclusive finance" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101210440892506), published 12 October 2026 - "Kim Jin-il, a new member of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board in May, expressed optimism about forward guidance, stating, "I tend to believe a lot in the usefulness of forward guidance," and "It is hopeful that Professor Woodford's Nobel Prize in Economics has sparked new interest and discussion" [한겨레신문](https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/economy_general/1282151.html), published 13 October 2026 - "Governor Shin responded to a request from People Power Party lawmaker Kim Sang-hoon, who stated that the Bank of Korea should be able to put the brakes on overly aggressive government policies and suggest new directions, by saying, "We will do our best without any wavering in independently conducting monetary policy" [아시아경제](https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2026101211505345513), published 12 October 2026 - "Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song stated that the Bank of Korea will maintain its monetary policy independence without wavering" [마이데일리](https://mydaily.co.kr/page/view/2026101214021551228), published 12 October 2026 - "The Bank of Korea announced on the 12th that Governor Shin Hyun-song will attend the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)·World Bank (WBG) Annual Meetings held in Bangkok, Thailand" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261012033800002), published 12 October 2026 - "Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song stated on the 12th, "We will do our best without any wavering in independently conducting monetary policy" [아시아경제](https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2026101211505345513), published 12 October 2026 - "Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song stated, "I will do well without any wavering in independently carrying out monetary policy" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261012076600002), published 12 October 2026 - "Shin Hyun-song characterized the 'K dot plot' as 'a very impressionistic view' of the monetary policy committee's deliberations, published quarterly and looking six months ahead to allow for adjustments based on new information" [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-korea-gov-shin-makes-case-for-forward-guidance-that-preserves-flexibility-ce785ddddf8cf522), published 13 October 2026 - "Lawmaker Park Soo-young pointed out the government's expansionary fiscal stance and the increase in national debt, urging the Bank of Korea to speak more actively about fiscal policy" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101210440892506), published 12 October 2026 - "Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song stated that while there are downsides to central banks providing forward guidance on interest rates, the right amount of guidance can mitigate these flaws" [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-korea-gov-shin-makes-case-for-forward-guidance-that-preserves-flexibility-ce785ddddf8cf522), published 13 October 2026 - "Lee Chang-yong questioned the need to use fiscal policy to further boost economic growth when the Bank of Korea's forecast for next year's economic growth is 2.9%, adding that if this year's growth is significantly inflated by fiscal impact, next year's growth could be lowered by the base effect" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026101144911), published 11 October 2026 - "Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song emphasized on the 12th, stating, "I will continue to voice my opinions on the sustainability of fiscal policy" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026101269951), published 12 October 2026 - "Governor Shin Hyun-song stated that the Bank of Korea is currently verifying whether monetary and fiscal policies are actually out of sync using models" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101214214323603), published 12 October 2026 - "Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song stated that "fiscal policy sustainability is absolutely important" regarding the government's fiscal operations and that he will continue to express his opinions on the matter" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101210440892506), published 12 October 2026 - "Shin Hyun-song noted that South Korea's economy is influenced by both the artificial-intelligence boom and the energy shock" [Market Screener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/bank-of-korea-gov-shin-makes-case-for-forward-guidance-that-preserves-flexibility-ce785ddddf8cf522), published 13 October 2026 - "In response to lawmaker Kim's request for the Bank of Korea to actively propose solutions for the increased financial cost burdens faced by small business owners, self-employed individuals, and small and medium-sized enterprises due to the base rate hikes in July and August, Governor Shin replied, "I understand" [아시아경제](https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2026101211505345513), published 12 October 2026 - "Governor Shin Hyun-song made these remarks on the 12th during the Bank of Korea's parliamentary audit by the National Assembly's Finance, Economy, and Planning Committee, in response to a question from Democratic Party lawmaker Moon Jin-seok about the side effects of forward guidance" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101211280754081), published 12 October 2026 - "Lawmaker Moon Jin-seok pointed out that the Bank of Korea's early signals of interest rate hikes could fuel market interest rate increases and lead to more borrowers choosing variable-rate mortgage loans over fixed-rate ones" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101211280754081), published 12 October 2026 - "Governor Shin Hyun-song was responding to questions from lawmakers at the Bank of Korea's parliamentary audit by the National Assembly's Finance and Economy Planning Committee, held at the Bank of Korea in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 12th" [아시아경제](https://www.asiae.co.kr/article/2026101211505345513), published 12 October 2026 - "Governor Shin Hyun-song responded to questions from Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Young-hwan regarding the background of the base rate hikes and the causes of inflation during the Bank of Korea's audit at the National Assembly's Finance, Economy, and Planning Committee on the 12th" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/economy/2026/10/12/2026101211062528671), published 12 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 7 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The end date of 2026-11-26T01:59:00Z appears to reference a November 2026 meeting, but it is unclear which year's November meeting is intended if the question was created in a different year. - No explicit source URL is provided for the official rate decision, though 'official policy rate decision announced by the central bank' is specified. - The description states cancelled/delayed meetings resolve 'Maintain current rate' to Yes and others to No, which means this market would resolve No if the meeting is cancelled — this is a special condition that could cause disputes if meeting timing is ambiguous. - The upper bound of exactly 25bps is included, but it is unclear whether a hike of exactly 25bps counts as within the 1-25bps range (appears to be inclusive based on wording). ## Publication history - Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.