# Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp hike AND dissents be 0 for Dec 2026? (Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0) 30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxfedcombo-26dec-7556b9dd - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 9 November 2026 - Research dated: 9 November 2026 - Published: 9 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedcombo/december-2026-fed-combo-rate-and-dissents/kxfedcombo-26dec#kxfedcombo-26dec-25h-0 - Venue YES price: 66.0c at 9 November 2026 - Market closes: 9 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp hike AND dissents be 0 for Dec 2026? (Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0) ## How this market settles If ALL of the following occur for Dec 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (12 claims) - "The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate" [China Daily](https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202610/29/ws6ae242cce4b06d4aa0565b77.html), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided by a vote of 10 to 2 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%" [中時新聞網](https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261029000954-260410), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75% to 4%, pausing after a previous increase" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/recap-fed-holds-at-3-75-4-in-10-2-vote-as-cook-dissents-for-a-hike-december-move-in-focus/), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates was a pause" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/politics-hung-over-feds-rate-hold-just-mere-days-from-midterms-200606266.html), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady occurred just days before the US midterm elections" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/politics-hung-over-feds-rate-hold-just-mere-days-from-midterms-200606266.html), published 28 October 2026 - "U.S. Treasury yields moved in different directions following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates unchanged and Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference" [Jack Dorsey Is Objectively Pro-Nazi (M.G. Saroff)](https://40yrs.blogspot.com/2026/10/fed-stands-pat.html), published 29 October 2026 - "Two Fed members, Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack, voted against the decision and advocated for a further 0.25% interest rate hike" [Yahoo News](https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8b%95-12%e6%9c%88%e5%8d%87%e6%81%af%e6%a9%9f%e7%8e%8785-030000118.html), published 29 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve is expected to pause raising interest rates on Wednesday" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html), published 28 October 2026 - "Federal Reserve policymakers have conveyed that there is no urgency to raise rates two months in a row" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html), published 28 October 2026 - "Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also dissented, advocating for tighter policy, consistent with her previous dissents in April and July" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/recap-fed-holds-at-3-75-4-in-10-2-vote-as-cook-dissents-for-a-hike-december-move-in-focus/), published 28 October 2026 - "Governor Lisa Cook dissented from the decision to keep interest rates unchanged" [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/28/fed-rates-01138637), published 28 October 2026 - "The Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged comes six days ahead of the November 3 midterm elections" [GULF NEWS](https://gulfnews.com/business/banking/us-federal-reserve-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-ahead-of-key-midterm-elections-1.500727496), published 28 October 2026 ### Context (18 claims) - "Federal Reserve officials believe they have more work to do to tame persistent inflation" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html), published 28 October 2026 - "The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.702% from 4.770% after the rate decision" [Jack Dorsey Is Objectively Pro-Nazi (M.G. Saroff)](https://40yrs.blogspot.com/2026/10/fed-stands-pat.html), published 29 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate target between 3.75% and 4%" [Investor.bg](https://www.investor.bg/a/539-banki-i-zastrahovateli/438683-fed-zapazi-lihvite-bez-promyana-analizatorite-ochakvat-povishenie-prez-dekemvri), published 28 October 2026 - "The US Federal Reserve kept its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75 to 4 percent" [China Daily](https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202610/29/ws6ae242cce4b06d4aa0565b77.html), published 28 October 2026 - "The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on October 28th (early morning of the 29th Taiwan time) that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%" [Yahoo News](https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%e8%81%af%e6%ba%96%e6%9c%83%e6%8c%89%e5%85%b5%e4%b8%8d%e5%8b%95-12%e6%9c%88%e5%8d%87%e6%81%af%e6%a9%9f%e7%8e%8785-030000118.html), published 29 October 2026 - "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell insisted that the interest rate decision was not influenced by political factors and reiterated the commitment to fighting inflation" [中時新聞網](https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261029000954-260410), published 28 October 2026 - "The Bank of America analysts stated in a note that they viewed a rate hike as a possibility but with low conviction, and that either decision would not significantly alter their forecasts" [HousingWire](https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fed-holds-benchmark-rate/), published 28 October 2026 - "Fed Chair Warsh stated that returning inflation to the 2% target is the overriding priority and did not challenge expectations of a December rate hike" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/recap-fed-holds-at-3-75-4-in-10-2-vote-as-cook-dissents-for-a-hike-december-move-in-focus/), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve typically tries to avoid making interest rate decisions immediately before midterm elections, even if not explicitly stated" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/politics-hung-over-feds-rate-hold-just-mere-days-from-midterms-200606266.html), published 28 October 2026 - "Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul analyzed the potential implications of the Federal Reserve's rate decision in relation to the midterm elections" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/politics-hung-over-feds-rate-hold-just-mere-days-from-midterms-200606266.html), published 28 October 2026 - "The decision on interest rates by the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be announced at 2:00 pm local time (1800GMT) on Wednesday" [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/us-fed-opens-two-day-meeting-with-markets-expecting-rate-hold/articleshow/135238252.cms), published 27 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve delivered an interest rate increase last month, the first since 2023" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html), published 28 October 2026 - "With two officials dissenting in favor of a hike, the December meeting is seen as a crucial indicator of the Fed's tightening path" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/recap-fed-holds-at-3-75-4-in-10-2-vote-as-cook-dissents-for-a-hike-december-move-in-focus/), published 28 October 2026 - "The midterm elections are taking place less than a week after the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html), published 28 October 2026 - "This change to the meeting schedule revises a 45-year-old calendar and aligns with Warsh's preference for a less visible Federal Reserve" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/recap-fed-holds-at-3-75-4-in-10-2-vote-as-cook-dissents-for-a-hike-december-move-in-focus/), published 28 October 2026 - "Thomas Hoenig, a distinguished senior fellow at the Mercatus Center and former president and CEO of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, shared his views on the Fed's decision" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fomcs-december-meeting-will-reveal-whos-actually-calling-the-shots-fmr-fed-official-195423761.html), published 28 October 2026 - "Hoenig stated that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh owes the public and the media clear explanations for the Fed's decisions" [Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fomcs-december-meeting-will-reveal-whos-actually-calling-the-shots-fmr-fed-official-195423761.html), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve hinted at additional interest rate hikes later this year in an effort to curb inflation" [BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ck62ylq5v7v1t), published 28 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 13 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The end date of 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z may not align with the actual December 2026 FOMC meeting announcement date/time — the December 2026 FOMC meeting schedule has not been confirmed and could fall on a different date. - The term 'dissents' is not fully defined — it is unclear whether this counts only dissents against the rate decision, dissents on any part of the statement, or both hawkish and dovish dissents separately. - Resolution depends on Kalshi-specific rulesets (FEDDECISION and FOMCDISSENTCOUNT) which may have internal definitions not publicly detailed, creating potential ambiguity in edge cases. - If the FOMC meeting is rescheduled or the announcement falls after the market end date, resolution criteria may become impossible to satisfy within the specified timeframe. ## Publication history - Published 9 November 2026; research dated 9 November 2026. - Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 5 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 9 November 2026. 6 of 22 cited sources are new; 16 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.