# Will the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 12 a 30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxgopfavsen-26nov03-7b742683 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 5 November 2026 - Research dated: 5 November 2026 - Published: 5 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgopfavsen/how-many-republican-favored-senate-races-will-republicans-win/kxgopfavsen-26nov03#kxgopfavsen-26nov03-al12 - Venue YES price: 53.0c at 5 November 2026 - Market closes: 15 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 12 at the November 3, 2026 general election? ## How this market settles If the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party is at least 12 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The Republican-favored races are the 13 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) in the states that the Cook Political Report rated Solid Republican or Likely Republican in its Senate race ratings dated Oct 30, 2026: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming. The Florida race is the special election. That list is fixed as of Issuance, so later rating changes do NOT add or remove a race. The count is the number of those 13 races won by a nominee of the Republican Party. A candidate who wins as an independent, or under a fusion, minor-party, or write-in line without being the Republican Party's own nominee, does NOT count, even if no Republican Party nominee appeared on the ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (9 claims) - "Republican nominee Kurt Alme is projected to win Montana's Senate election, according to Decision Desk HQ" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "The Cook Political Report rated the Montana Senate race as solidly favoring Republicans" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "Republican Ashley Moody won the Senate race in Florida" [DraftKings Network](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/11/03/did-democrats-or-republicans-win-control-of-the-senate-2026-u-s-election-results/), published 4 November 2026 - "President Trump stated at an Oct. 14 rally in Kalispell, Mont., "In 20 days from now, the people of Montana are going to defeat radical Democrat Alani Bankhead ... and elect a fantastic man, a fantastic guy that I know very well, Kurt Alme, to the United States Senate" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "In Tennessee, Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn is in a contest against Democrat Jerri Green, with Blackburn reportedly leading" [The Sunday Guardian Live](https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/us-midterm-elections-2026-live-four-states-could-elect-first-female-governors-trump-targets-senate-candidates-musk-urges-voters-to-vote-red-316746/), published 3 November 2026 - "Daines and President Trump endorsed Kurt Alme in the state's GOP primary" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "Kurt Alme defeated Democratic challenger Alani Bankhead, independent candidate Seth Bodnar, and Libertarian candidate Kyle Austin in the GOP primary" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "Kurt Alme, the former U.S. attorney for the District of Montana, will replace retiring Sen. Steve Daines" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "President Trump claimed, "I actually got him put in office twice -- not once, twice. He was so good, I said let's do it again, Kurt" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (21 claims) - "Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Ashley Moody to the Senate last year to replace Marco Rubio" [NewsChannel 3-12](https://keyt.com/news/national-world/cnn-national/2026/11/03/3-gop-targeted-florida-districts-projected-blue-republican-moody-wins-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "The 2026 U. S. Senate elections are characterized by a significant expansion of competitive races in traditionally Republican-leaning states" [PravdaReport](https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/171237-2026-us-senate-elections-competitive-races/), published 1 November 2026 - "The US midterm elections in 2026 are for control of the 100-member Senate and all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives" [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-midterm-elections-2026-battleground-states-alaska-south-carolina-kansas-maine-michigan/articleshow/135401700.cms), published 31 October 2026 - "The Democratic Party has achieved a significant victory in the midterm elections, securing control of both the federal Senate and House of Representatives, and also winning decisively in state and local elections across the United States" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261105067600091), published 5 November 2026 - "The Democratic Party needed to win seats in Republican-controlled states to shift the balance of power in the Senate" [خبرآنلاین](https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/2297315/%d9%be%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d8%b2-%db%b2%db%b1-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%84-%da%a9%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%84%db%8c%d9%86%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%ac%d9%86%d9%88%d8%a8%db%8c-%d8%a8%d8%a7-%d9%be%db%8c%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b2%db%8c-%d8%a2%d9%86%db%8c-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b2-%d8%a2%d8%a8%db%8c-%d8%b4%d8%af), published 4 November 2026 - "Florida voters will send Republican Sen. Ashley Moody back to Washington, as projected by CNN's Decision Desk" [NewsChannel 3-12](https://keyt.com/news/national-world/cnn-national/2026/11/03/3-gop-targeted-florida-districts-projected-blue-republican-moody-wins-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 - "Billionaire Elon Musk posted on X, 'Vote red today!' urging Americans to support Republican candidates in the 2026 midterm elections" [The Sunday Guardian Live](https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/us-midterm-elections-2026-live-four-states-could-elect-first-female-governors-trump-targets-senate-candidates-musk-urges-voters-to-vote-red-316746/), published 3 November 2026 - "The US Department of Justice has deployed approximately 1,000 election monitors across all 50 states for the 2026 midterm elections, described by Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon as the department's largest election-monitoring effort in its history" [The Sunday Guardian Live](https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/us-midterm-elections-2026-live-four-states-could-elect-first-female-governors-trump-targets-senate-candidates-musk-urges-voters-to-vote-red-316746/), published 3 November 2026 - "Four states, Georgia, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Ohio, are highlighted as potentially electing their first female governors in the 2026 US midterm elections" [The Sunday Guardian Live](https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/us-midterm-elections-2026-live-four-states-could-elect-first-female-governors-trump-targets-senate-candidates-musk-urges-voters-to-vote-red-316746/), published 3 November 2026 - "Republicans are working to maintain their control of the U.S. Senate" [DraftKings Network](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/11/03/did-democrats-or-republicans-win-control-of-the-senate-2026-u-s-election-results/), published 4 November 2026 - "Republicans are defending a 53-47 majority in the Senate" [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-midterm-elections-2026-battleground-states-alaska-south-carolina-kansas-maine-michigan/articleshow/135401700.cms), published 31 October 2026 - "The 2026 U. S. Senate elections are scheduled for November 3" [PravdaReport](https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/171237-2026-us-senate-elections-competitive-races/), published 1 November 2026 - "Polling day for the US midterm elections is scheduled for November 3, 2026" [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-midterm-elections-2026-battleground-states-alaska-south-carolina-kansas-maine-michigan/articleshow/135401700.cms), published 31 October 2026 - "Early voting in the 2026 US midterm elections has set a record, with over 49 million Americans having already cast ballots" [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-midterm-elections-2026-battleground-states-alaska-south-carolina-kansas-maine-michigan/articleshow/135401700.cms), published 31 October 2026 - "If the election is judged a big Trump defeat, it will open up political space within the Republican party, accelerating jockeying for the 2028 presidential nomination" [LSE Blogs](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2026/11/03/midterms-republicans-democrats-america-world/), published 3 November 2026 - "Democrats need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority in the Senate" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/04/democratas-ganan-por-sorpresa-en-carolina-del-sur-y-avanzan-hacia-una-mayoria-en-el-senado/), published 4 November 2026 - "Control of the U.S. Senate is being decided by voters in closely watched races" [DraftKings Network](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/11/03/did-democrats-or-republicans-win-control-of-the-senate-2026-u-s-election-results/), published 4 November 2026 - "Democrats are aiming to gain enough seats to regain the majority in the U.S. Senate" [DraftKings Network](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/11/03/did-democrats-or-republicans-win-control-of-the-senate-2026-u-s-election-results/), published 4 November 2026 - "The House is almost certain to go to the Democrats, and the Senate could very well follow" [LSE Blogs](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2026/11/03/midterms-republicans-democrats-america-world/), published 3 November 2026 - "The Democrats are widely predicted to win the US House of Representatives and potentially the Senate" [LSE Blogs](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2026/11/03/midterms-republicans-democrats-america-world/), published 3 November 2026 - "Sen. Steve Daines announced his departure from Congress minutes before the filing deadline in March" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6182199-alme-wins-montana-senate-race/), published 4 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 10 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The term 'nominee of the Republican Party' requires a clear official definition — it is unclear whether a candidate who appears on both a Republican and minor-party line (fusion ticket) qualifies as the Republican nominee, though the description partially addresses this by excluding candidates winning solely under a non-Republican line. - If any race requires a runoff that is not completed before the market end date of 2026-12-15T14:59:00Z, resolution could be delayed or disputed. - The Cook Political Report ratings are fixed as of issuance (Oct 30, 2026 ratings referenced), but the market was issued before that date, creating a potential ambiguity if the Oct 30, 2026 ratings differ from expectations at issuance. - No explicit source is specified for determining the official winner of each race beyond the general election result, leaving room for disputes in close or contested races. ## Publication history - Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.