# Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? 30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxhormuzavg-27jan01-9c284989 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 9 November 2026 - Research dated: 9 November 2026 - Published: 9 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuzavg/how-high-will-average-weekly-hormuz-traffic-get-in-2026/kxhormuzavg-27jan01#kxhormuzavg-27jan01-a60 - Venue YES price: 11.0c at 9 November 2026 - Market closes: 5 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? ## How this market settles If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (3 claims) - "The Iranian agency ISNA reported that Tehran has already allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz for ships from India, China, Iraq, and Qatar" [Borba Info](https://www.borba.info/2026/11/09/teheran-zapretio-vasingtonu-ili-prihvatite-nase-uslove-ili-cete-videti-pravi-pakao/), published 9 November 2026 - "According to diplomatic sources familiar with the mediation between Washington and Tehran, the United States offered, as part of a proposal attached to the Qatari proposal, a partial lifting of the blockade through a phased agreement that begins with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation" [https://kataeb.org/](https://kataeb.org/articles/%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%82-%d9%86%d9%88%d9%88%d9%8a-%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b5%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%ad-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%af-%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86), published 9 November 2026 - "In return for the fulfillment of its demands, Tehran would open the Strait of Hormuz to merchant ships and resume negotiations with Washington, including talks on the nuclear program" [Borba Info](https://www.borba.info/2026/11/09/teheran-zapretio-vasingtonu-ili-prihvatite-nase-uslove-ili-cete-videti-pravi-pakao/), published 9 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (13 claims) - "Iran's Navy claimed that an oil tanker caught fire after striking naval mines while travelling through a restricted route east of the Strait of Hormuz" [madhyamamonline.com](https://madhyamamonline.com/world/iran-says-us-attacked-qeshm-island-key-facilities-remain-unaffected-1570701), published 9 November 2026 - "The American army is suspected of having fired projectiles towards Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on the evening of the report, according to Iranian state media" [Telegrafi](https://telegrafi.com/mediat-iraniane-shba-ja-leshon-predha-drejt-ishullit-qeshm-ne-ngushticen-e-hormuzit/), published 8 November 2026 - "Mohammad Rashidi emphasized Iran's strategic position in regional transit and energy equations, stating that recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrated that bypassing Iran's communication routes imposes heavy costs on regional and global countries, and that Tehran remains the connecting link for strategic East-West and North-South corridors" [ana.ir](https://ana.ir/fa/news/1095656/%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%b2%d8%af%d9%86-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b2%db%8c%d8%aa%db%8c-%d8%ac%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%be%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%b2%db%8c%d9%86%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d9%87%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%82%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d9%84-%da%a9%d8%b1%db%8c%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%af%db%8c-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%82%d9%87), published 8 November 2026 - "The IRGC Navy claimed that two oil tankers struck naval mines while attempting to use unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, causing both vessels to catch fire and stop; these claims have not been independently verified" [GlobalSecurity.org](https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/11/iran-261107-rferl02.htm), published 8 November 2026 - "IRGC spokesperson Major General Hossein Mohebbi urged observers to assess the situation in the Strait of Hormuz through developments on the ground rather than statements issued by American military officials, stating, "Look at the reality of the Strait of Hormuz through the events unfolding there" [Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/531950/the-strait-is-under-maintenance), published 8 November 2026 - "Iranian media reported that the U.S. strikes landed on Qeshm Island in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz" [USA Herald - The People's Voice](https://usaherald.com/iran-rejects-us-reply-on-hormuz-as-trump-calls-qeshm-island-strike-minor-and-pentagon-reportedly-readies-a-bigger-blow/), published 8 November 2026 - "Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Washington must "fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions" for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened" [USA Herald - The People's Voice](https://usaherald.com/iran-rejects-us-reply-on-hormuz-as-trump-calls-qeshm-island-strike-minor-and-pentagon-reportedly-readies-a-bigger-blow/), published 8 November 2026 - "Iran stated that Washington's response to its plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz was "not convincing" [USA Herald - The People's Voice](https://usaherald.com/iran-rejects-us-reply-on-hormuz-as-trump-calls-qeshm-island-strike-minor-and-pentagon-reportedly-readies-a-bigger-blow/), published 8 November 2026 - "The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy reiterated on November 6 that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Iran's conditions were met" [GlobalSecurity.org](https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/11/iran-261107-rferl02.htm), published 8 November 2026 - "Iranian Army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia stated on November 6 to the Tasnim News Agency that the only way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is for the US to accept Tehran's demands" [GlobalSecurity.org](https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/11/iran-261107-rferl02.htm), published 8 November 2026 - "Iran states that the United States must accept its seven conditions for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, warning that further military action will not alter Iran's stance" [GlobalSecurity.org](https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2026/11/iran-261107-rferl02.htm), published 8 November 2026 - "The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported a tanker fire following a mine explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it was the third such incident in the unauthorized shipping route that day" [madhyamamonline.com](https://madhyamamonline.com/world/iran-says-us-attacked-qeshm-island-key-facilities-remain-unaffected-1570701), published 9 November 2026 - "The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a sustained closure of normal commercial passage, imposed by Iran as part of its defensive response to a war initiated by Washington and Tel Aviv" [Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/531950/the-strait-is-under-maintenance), published 8 November 2026 ### Context (14 claims) - "Qeshm Island is located in the Persian Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz" [Telegrafi](https://telegrafi.com/mediat-iraniane-shba-ja-leshon-predha-drejt-ishullit-qeshm-ne-ngushticen-e-hormuzit/), published 8 November 2026 - "Rashidi noted that regional countries have practically accepted Iran as a regional power, and efforts to mediate, end the war, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz reflect this reality" [ana.ir](https://ana.ir/fa/news/1095656/%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%b2%d8%af%d9%86-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b2%db%8c%d8%aa%db%8c-%d8%ac%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%be%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%b2%db%8c%d9%86%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d9%87%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%ad%d9%84%d9%82%d9%87-%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d9%84-%da%a9%d8%b1%db%8c%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%a7%db%8c-%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%af%db%8c-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%82%d9%87), published 8 November 2026 - "Explosions were also heard in the coastal cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik, but Iranian media attributed these incidents to operations by the country's own forces for security maintenance and control of the Strait of Hormuz" [RTP - Rádio Televisão Portuguesa](https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/guerra-no-medio-oriente/teerao-anuncia-terceira-vaga-de-ataques-dos-eua-contra-qeshm-numa-semana_n1777819), published 9 November 2026 - "Iranian authorities announced that US attacks were registered during the early morning hours against several points in Qeshm, in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the third round of bombings against the island in a week" [RTP - Rádio Televisão Portuguesa](https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/guerra-no-medio-oriente/teerao-anuncia-terceira-vaga-de-ataques-dos-eua-contra-qeshm-numa-semana_n1777819), published 9 November 2026 - "Ahmed Nefisi, Deputy Governor of Iran's southern Hormozgan Province, announced that the US launched an attack on targets on Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz during the night" [Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası](https://www.dirilispostasi.com/kesm-adasina-abd-saldirisi-sonrasi-altyapida-hasar-var-mi), published 9 November 2026 - "The United States armed forces launched several "projectiles" at the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IRNA agency" [Газета.Ru](https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2026/11/09/29701207.shtml), published 9 November 2026 - "Journalists have not ruled out that the explosions were related to the actions of Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz area" [Газета.Ru](https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2026/11/09/29701207.shtml), published 9 November 2026 - "Tehran has not commented on the explosions, which are speculated to be related to control over the Strait of Hormuz" [Информационно-аналитический портал "NEELOV.RU"](https://neelov.ru/exclusive/143899-serija-vzryvov-na-ostrove-keshm-ssha-atakovali-pozicii-iranskoj-pvo.html), published 9 November 2026 - "The suspected targets of the US strikes were Iranian air defense systems that were interfering with American drones conducting reconnaissance over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz" [Информационно-аналитический портал "NEELOV.RU"](https://neelov.ru/exclusive/143899-serija-vzryvov-na-ostrove-keshm-ssha-atakovali-pozicii-iranskoj-pvo.html), published 9 November 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global energy supplies" [bangladeshpost.net](https://bangladeshpost.net/posts/us-fires-projectiles-on-qeshm-island-iran-state-media-reports-175371), published 9 November 2026 - "Samadi emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is one of Iran's most important strategic tools in the current situation and can influence the economic and political calculations of global powers, but its use must be planned and its consequences carefully considered" [خبرگزاری مهر | اخبار ایران و جهان | Mehr News Agency](https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6997416/%d9%85%d8%ad%d8%a7%d8%b5%d8%b1%d9%87-%d8%af%d8%b1%db%8c%d8%a7%db%8c%db%8c-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d8%b2-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a8%db%8c%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d9%84%db%8c-%d8%aa%d8%a7-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b2%d9%86%d9%87-%d9%82%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%aa), published 8 November 2026 - "Diplomatic sources informed "Erem News" that Tehran has not yet responded to the mediators regarding the American offer, awaiting assurances it deems necessary to accept discussing navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, linking it to the lifting of the blockade and the unfreezing of funds" [https://kataeb.org/](https://kataeb.org/articles/%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%82-%d9%86%d9%88%d9%88%d9%8a-%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b5%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%ad-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%af-%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86), published 9 November 2026 - "This new task force will coordinate military actions against land smuggling through Iran's borders and sea smuggling through the Caspian Sea, in addition to the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports on the Strait of Hormuz" [הארץ](https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/world/middle-east/2026-11-07/ty-article/000001a1-b7a8-deb0-a9b5-ffab12110000), published 7 November 2026 - "United States President Donald Trump stated that it is "highly unlikely" he will order American forces back into conflict with Iran, provided tangible progress is achieved in negotiations surrounding Tehran's nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz" [Asianet News Network Pvt Ltd](https://newsable.asianetnews.com/world/iran-issues-stern-warning-to-us-over-hostilities-and-regional-war-articleshow-geug9n4), published 8 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 16 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The description says 'above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027' but does not clarify whether this requires at least one day above 60 or the entire period above 60 — single-day breach vs. sustained threshold. - The exact timezone for the date boundaries (July 6, 2026 end-of-day and January 1, 2027 start) is not specified, creating potential boundary disputes. - IMF PortWatch data may be revised or delayed; it is unclear which snapshot or data vintage would be used for resolution. - 'Transit calls' is not explicitly defined — could mean vessel transits, port calls, or a specific IMF PortWatch metric definition that may change over time. - The market end date is January 5, 2027, which is after the stated resolution window end of January 1, 2027, creating ambiguity about how post-window data or late-reported data would be handled. ## Publication history - Published 9 November 2026; research dated 9 November 2026. - Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 5 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 9 November 2026. 24 of 33 cited sources are new; 9 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.