# Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027) 30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 23 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxhormuznorm-26mar17-6063f9ea - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 7 November 2026 - Research dated: 7 November 2026 - Published: 7 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuznorm/when-will-traffic-at-the-strait-of-hormuz-return-to-normal/kxhormuznorm-26mar17#kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270701 - Venue YES price: 35.0c at 7 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 July 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027) ## How this market settles If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (2 claims) - "CENTCOM stated in exclusive remarks to Al Arabiya that U.S. forces are present in the Strait of Hormuz area and are providing necessary protection to commercial vessels as part of their efforts to ensure the continuity of maritime traffic and the flow of global energy supplies" [Siasat Daily - Urdu](https://urdu.siasat.com/news/%db%81%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%da%a9%da%be%d9%84%d8%a7-%db%81%db%92-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%be%d8%b1-%da%a9%d9%88%d8%a6%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d9%b9-1762204/), published 9 October 2026 - "The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is open for maritime traffic and denied statements by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps about closing it, asserting that Tehran has no control over this strategic sea lane" [Siasat Daily - Urdu](https://urdu.siasat.com/news/%db%81%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%da%a9%da%be%d9%84%d8%a7-%db%81%db%92-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%be%d8%b1-%da%a9%d9%88%d8%a6%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d9%b9-1762204/), published 9 October 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (23 claims) - "The GFS Pride was sailing through the strait on Tuesday, according to the MPA" [Los Angeles Evening Despatch](https://www.losangeleseveningdespatch.com/news/two-ships-sink-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectiles-amid-surge-in-attacks202610150918560006//), published 15 October 2026 - "Emir Hayat Mukaddem stated that currently, Iran has exempted India, China, Iraq, and Qatar from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz" [Sabah](https://www.sabah.com.tr/dunya/iran-duyurdu-hurmuz-sadece-o-ulkelerin-gecisine-acik-7694400), published 3 November 2026 - "According to Tehran, tanker collisions with mines in the Strait of Hormuz have multiplied in the last month, which analysts believe is a policy aimed at raising crude oil prices to harm US President Donald Trump in the recent midterm elections" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/un-buque-cisterna-sufre-una-explosion-mientras-salia-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-segun-ukmto/), published 6 November 2026 - "The captain of a tanker ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz reported an explosion at the waterline on the port side" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/un-buque-cisterna-sufre-una-explosion-mientras-salia-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-segun-ukmto/), published 6 November 2026 - "Commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is facing a sharp decline due to ongoing attacks on ships and oil tankers, and stalled talks between the United States and Iran" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "Emir Hayat Mukaddem, the Deputy Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, stated that ships belonging to only 4 countries are exempt from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz" [Sabah](https://www.sabah.com.tr/dunya/iran-duyurdu-hurmuz-sadece-o-ulkelerin-gecisine-acik-7694400), published 3 November 2026 - "This incident follows Iran's claim on Friday that two other oil tankers collided with mines while navigating "unauthorized" routes in the Strait of Hormuz" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/un-buque-cisterna-sufre-una-explosion-mientras-salia-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-segun-ukmto/), published 6 November 2026 - "A tanker ship suffered an explosion on Thursday while exiting the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, the British Maritime Operations entity (UKMTO) reported on Friday" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/un-buque-cisterna-sufre-una-explosion-mientras-salia-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-segun-ukmto/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is reporting that US bombing attacks have disabled Iran's capacity to use shore-based ship radar for monitoring traffic in the Strait of Hormuz" [Political Dog 101](https://politicaldog101.com/2026/10/iran-trump-conflict-war-10-14-2026-iran-sinks-2-container-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/), published 15 October 2026 - "The Revolutionary Guard insisted on Friday that Hormuz remains blocked and will remain so until the United States accepts its seven conditions to end the war" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/un-buque-cisterna-sufre-una-explosion-mientras-salia-del-estrecho-de-ormuz-segun-ukmto/), published 6 November 2026 - "Ship-tracking data showed five commercial ships carrying goods crossing the Strait on Saturday, compared to no crossings recorded on Sunday, down from 31 ships during the previous weekend" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "Two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz have sunk after being hit by missiles, according to The Guardian" [Political Dog 101](https://politicaldog101.com/2026/10/iran-trump-conflict-war-10-14-2026-iran-sinks-2-container-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/), published 15 October 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route, has been severely disrupted since late February, leading to a significant increase in global fuel prices" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "The Singapore-flagged container vessel GFS Pride sank while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz" [Los Angeles Evening Despatch](https://www.losangeleseveningdespatch.com/news/two-ships-sink-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectiles-amid-surge-in-attacks202610150918560006//), published 15 October 2026 - "The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged Cape Dao sank close to the Strait of Hormuz" [Los Angeles Evening Despatch](https://www.losangeleseveningdespatch.com/news/two-ships-sink-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectiles-amid-surge-in-attacks202610150918560006//), published 15 October 2026 - "Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz have increased over the past 10 days" [Los Angeles Evening Despatch](https://www.losangeleseveningdespatch.com/news/two-ships-sink-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectiles-amid-surge-in-attacks202610150918560006//), published 15 October 2026 - "A container ship and a dry bulk carrier sank near the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours after being hit by projectiles in separate incidents, according to maritime officials on Wednesday" [Los Angeles Evening Despatch](https://www.losangeleseveningdespatch.com/news/two-ships-sink-near-hormuz-after-being-hit-by-projectiles-amid-surge-in-attacks202610150918560006//), published 15 October 2026 - "Iran's increasing attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz have made October one of the most violent months in the waterway since the war began" [semafor.com](https://www.semafor.com/article/10/14/2026/iran-ramps-up-ship-strikes-in-hormuz-ahead-of-us-midterms), published 14 October 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "illegal"" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on Wednesday that at least five incidents, including drone strikes, targeted tankers and other commercial ships in the vicinity of Hormuz within the preceding 48 hours" [Political Dog 101](https://politicaldog101.com/2026/10/iran-trump-conflict-war-10-14-2026-iran-sinks-2-container-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/), published 15 October 2026 - "Iran has consistently warned ships against transiting the strait without its authorization" [Political Dog 101](https://politicaldog101.com/2026/10/iran-trump-conflict-war-10-14-2026-iran-sinks-2-container-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/), published 15 October 2026 - "Following the US bombing attacks, Iran has resorted to using boats within the strait to identify targeted ships" [Political Dog 101](https://politicaldog101.com/2026/10/iran-trump-conflict-war-10-14-2026-iran-sinks-2-container-ships-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/), published 15 October 2026 ### Context (5 claims) - "The Strait of Hormuz was previously used by more than 130 ships daily before the recent escalations" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz was a critical transit point for approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the recent events" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "The 2026 Ormuz Strait supply disruption, following the 2022 Ukrainian crisis, has reignited discussions about supply reliability, energy source diversification, and fossil fuel storage" [Портал Neftegaz.ru](https://neftegaz.ru/news/politics/941038-totalenergies-krizis-v-ormuzskom-prolive-v-2026-g-uskoril-energoperekhod/), published 3 November 2026 - "US President Donald Trump claimed that Washington's forces are assisting oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping volumes increasing to over 20 million barrels per day" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Kepler, a company specializing in commodity and energy market data, reported on September 29 that Gulf region crude oil and condensate exports are at least 16.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to pre-war averages, excluding Iran, but only 60% of these exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz" [عربي21](https://arabi21.com/story/1794476/%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%a8-%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b7%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%84%d9%81%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%87), published 9 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 11 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The description says 'above 60' but does not clarify whether exactly 60 counts as YES or NO — strictly above 60 appears to be the intent but could cause disputes at the boundary value. - It is unclear what timezone IMF PortWatch uses to calculate and publish its 7-day moving average, which could affect whether a reading just before the deadline qualifies. - No explicit specification of how often IMF PortWatch updates its 7-day moving average (daily, intraday, etc.), creating ambiguity about the granularity of observations. - The market end date (2027-07-01T13:59:00Z) uses a specific time, but 'before July 1, 2027' in the description is ambiguous as to whether readings on July 1, 2027 itself (before 13:59Z) count. - No fallback resolution source is specified if IMF PortWatch data becomes unavailable, is revised, or discontinues reporting on this metric. ## Publication history - Published 7 November 2026; research dated 7 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.