# Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026? (Above 10) 30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 14 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxhormuzpeak-26nov22-d3fd4afc - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 14 November 2026 - Research dated: 14 November 2026 - Published: 14 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuzpeak/peak-traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-11-16-11-22/kxhormuzpeak-26nov22#kxhormuzpeak-26nov22-t10 - Venue YES price: 6.0c at 14 November 2026 - Market closes: 24 November 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. ## The question, as the venue words it Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026? (Above 10) ## How this market settles If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (16 claims) - "Iran claims it retains full control of the Strait of Hormuz" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route, has been severely disrupted since late February, leading to a significant increase in global fuel prices" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "illegal"" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased this week after Iran threatened to retaliate against any new American attacks, amid warnings that the Gulf region's energy infrastructure is at risk" [S A N A](https://sana.sy/international/2600220/), published 8 October 2026 - "Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran deems 'illegal', asserting full control over the strategic waterway despite US claims to the contrary" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated on Wednesday that shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran considers illegal, are expected to be closed soon" [Syri | Lajmi i fundit](https://www.syri.net/bote/921776/paralajmeron-irani-disa-rruge-ne-hormuz-do-te-mbyllen-deri-ne-plotesimin-e-kerkesave-tona/), published 7 October 2026 - "Iran threatens to tighten the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and close additional shipping lanes used by ships to bypass the blockade it imposed on the region" [mako](https://www.mako.co.il/news-world/2026_q4/article-29122c1028a11a1026.htm), published 8 October 2026 - "Iran announced its intention to soon 'close' shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz that it defines as illegal, primarily the southern route near the coast of Oman" [mako](https://www.mako.co.il/news-world/2026_q4/article-29122c1028a11a1026.htm), published 8 October 2026 - "Mohammadreza Naqdi stated, 'The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it" [Baird Maritime](https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/iran-targets-oman-coastal-route-in-planned-strait-of-hormuz-crackdown), published 7 October 2026 - "An adviser to the Revolutionary Guards' Commander told the semi-official Fars News Agency on Wednesday that transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz deemed illegal by Iran will soon be closed" [Baird Maritime](https://www.bairdmaritime.com/shipping/iran-targets-oman-coastal-route-in-planned-strait-of-hormuz-crackdown), published 7 October 2026 - "An advisor to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that 'illegal' shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz will be closed soon" [AL Masry Al Youm](https://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/4377338), published 7 October 2026 - "Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that Iran will block "illegal shipping routes" in the Strait of Hormuz" [Взгляд](https://vz.ru/news/2026/10/7/1459949.html), published 7 October 2026 - "Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has nearly halted due to the conflict between Iran and the USA, leading to increased fuel prices globally" [Взгляд](https://vz.ru/news/2026/10/7/1459949.html), published 7 October 2026 - "Kepler, a company specializing in commodity and energy market data, reported on September 29 that Gulf region crude oil and condensate exports are at least 16.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to pre-war averages, excluding Iran, but only 60% of these exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz" [عربي21](https://arabi21.com/story/1794476/%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%a8-%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b7%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%b9%d9%88-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%84%d9%81%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%87), published 9 October 2026 - "According to Reuters, citing data from the company Kepler, the number of cargo ships that passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday decreased to seven, compared to eight the previous day" [S A N A](https://sana.sy/international/2600220/), published 8 October 2026 ### Context (14 claims) - "The US claims the Strait of Hormuz is open" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "The US claims that Iran has "lost complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Iran has directly stated that the United States must withdraw from the Middle East for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "The risk of attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz persists" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz normally carries around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the large-scale transport of oil and natural gas exiting the Persian Gulf" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "US President Donald Trump claimed that Washington's forces are assisting oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping volumes increasing to over 20 million barrels per day" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Uncertainty in supply could lead to fluctuations in crude oil prices, potentially increasing India's fuel import costs" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, attacked the presidential palace in Aden, Yemen, resulting in the deaths and injuries of security personnel" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "An Iranian military spokesperson warned that if the United States does not withdraw from the region, it will be expelled" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "These developments have raised concerns about security in the Middle East and could impact the global oil market" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "The United States is pressuring the Iraqi government to close most of its border crossings with Iran" [Portal do Holanda](https://www.portaldoholanda.com.br/resumo-do-dia/resumo-do-dia-2026-11-08), published 8 November 2026 - "The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is open for maritime traffic and denied statements by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps about closing it, asserting that Tehran has no control over this strategic sea lane" [Siasat Daily - Urdu](https://urdu.siasat.com/news/%db%81%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%da%a9%da%be%d9%84%d8%a7-%db%81%db%92-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%be%d8%b1-%da%a9%d9%88%d8%a6%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d9%b9-1762204/), published 9 October 2026 - "CENTCOM stated in exclusive remarks to Al Arabiya that U.S. forces are present in the Strait of Hormuz area and are providing necessary protection to commercial vessels as part of their efforts to ensure the continuity of maritime traffic and the flow of global energy supplies" [Siasat Daily - Urdu](https://urdu.siasat.com/news/%db%81%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%da%a9%da%be%d9%84%d8%a7-%db%81%db%92-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%be%d8%b1-%da%a9%d9%88%d8%a6%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d9%b9-1762204/), published 9 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 12 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 3 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The description says 'above 10' while the title says 'more than 10' — these are consistent but the boundary value of exactly 10 resolves NO, which should be confirmed. - No explicit clarification of timezone used to define a 'single day' in IMF PortWatch data, which could affect day boundaries. - The resolution window note ('no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period') is procedural but does not define what happens if IMF PortWatch data is delayed or revised after resolution. ## Publication history - Published 14 November 2026; research dated 14 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.