# Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? (Above 25) 30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxhormuzweekly-26nov15-dc4294e5 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 8 November 2026 - Research dated: 8 November 2026 - Published: 8 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhormuzweekly/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-11-9-11-15/kxhormuzweekly-26nov15#kxhormuzweekly-26nov15-t25 - Venue YES price: 49.0c at 8 November 2026 - Market closes: 17 November 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? (Above 25) ## How this market settles If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 25 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (3 claims) - "CENTCOM stated in exclusive remarks to Al Arabiya that U.S. forces are present in the Strait of Hormuz area and are providing necessary protection to commercial vessels as part of their efforts to ensure the continuity of maritime traffic and the flow of global energy supplies" [Siasat Daily - Urdu](https://urdu.siasat.com/news/%db%81%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%da%a9%da%be%d9%84%d8%a7-%db%81%db%92-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%be%d8%b1-%da%a9%d9%88%d8%a6%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d9%b9-1762204/), published 9 October 2026 - "The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is open for maritime traffic and denied statements by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps about closing it, asserting that Tehran has no control over this strategic sea lane" [Siasat Daily - Urdu](https://urdu.siasat.com/news/%db%81%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%da%a9%da%be%d9%84%d8%a7-%db%81%db%92-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%be%d8%b1-%da%a9%d9%88%d8%a6%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d9%b9-1762204/), published 9 October 2026 - "In a development related to maritime security, CENTCOM announced that U.S. forces successfully removed naval mines laid by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz" [Siasat Daily - Urdu](https://urdu.siasat.com/news/%db%81%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%da%a9%da%be%d9%84%d8%a7-%db%81%db%92-%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%da%a9%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%be%d8%b1-%da%a9%d9%88%d8%a6%db%8c-%da%a9%d9%86%d9%b9-1762204/), published 9 October 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (9 claims) - "Commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is facing a sharp decline due to ongoing attacks on ships and oil tankers, and stalled talks between the United States and Iran" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased this week after Iran threatened to retaliate against any new American attacks, amid warnings that the Gulf region's energy infrastructure is at risk" [S A N A](https://sana.sy/international/2600220/), published 8 October 2026 - "Iran has directly stated that the United States must withdraw from the Middle East for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "The risk of attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz persists" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "The 2026 Ormuz Strait supply disruption, following the 2022 Ukrainian crisis, has reignited discussions about supply reliability, energy source diversification, and fossil fuel storage" [Портал Neftegaz.ru](https://neftegaz.ru/news/politics/941038-totalenergies-krizis-v-ormuzskom-prolive-v-2026-g-uskoril-energoperekhod/), published 3 November 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route, has been severely disrupted since late February, leading to a significant increase in global fuel prices" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran deems 'illegal', asserting full control over the strategic waterway despite US claims to the contrary" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated on Wednesday that shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran considers illegal, are expected to be closed soon" [Syri | Lajmi i fundit](https://www.syri.net/bote/921776/paralajmeron-irani-disa-rruge-ne-hormuz-do-te-mbyllen-deri-ne-plotesimin-e-kerkesave-tona/), published 7 October 2026 - "An Iranian military spokesperson warned that if the United States does not withdraw from the region, it will be expelled" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 ### Context (18 claims) - "The US claims that Iran has "lost complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Tankers continue to constitute the main portion of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz" [Izvestia.ru](https://iz.ru/2174358/sudokhodstvo-cherez-ormuzskii-proliv-snizilos-na-75-dovoennogo-urovnia-izi), published 27 September 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the large-scale transport of oil and natural gas exiting the Persian Gulf" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz was a critical transit point for approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the recent events" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz was previously used by more than 130 ships daily before the recent escalations" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "Ship-tracking data showed five commercial ships carrying goods crossing the Strait on Saturday, compared to no crossings recorded on Sunday, down from 31 ships during the previous weekend" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 - "According to TotalEnergies' Energy Outlook 2026, the crisis could accelerate the energy transition, with electric vehicle sales increasing in Asia, Latin America, and Europe since Q2 2026, and demand for biofuel blends rising" [Портал Neftegaz.ru](https://neftegaz.ru/news/politics/941038-totalenergies-krizis-v-ormuzskom-prolive-v-2026-g-uskoril-energoperekhod/), published 3 November 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "illegal"" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Tasnim news agency that Tehran is still studying the US response to a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and may respond within days" [annahar.com](https://www.annahar.com/factcheck/355688/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%ae%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%aa%d9%82%d9%84-%d8%b9%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7-%d9%84%d9%84%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%af-%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%82%d9%82-factcheck), published 10 October 2026 - "A video circulating on social media falsely claims to show Iranian intelligence arresting Mossad agents near the Strait of Hormuz, in Tehran, and on Kharg Island" [annahar.com](https://www.annahar.com/factcheck/355688/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%ae%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%aa%d9%82%d9%84-%d8%b9%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7-%d9%84%d9%84%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%af-%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d8%aa%d8%ad%d9%82%d9%82-factcheck), published 10 October 2026 - "US President Donald Trump claimed that Washington's forces are assisting oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping volumes increasing to over 20 million barrels per day" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Uncertainty in supply could lead to fluctuations in crude oil prices, potentially increasing India's fuel import costs" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, attacked the presidential palace in Aden, Yemen, resulting in the deaths and injuries of security personnel" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "A violent attack also occurred in Yemen" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "The US claims the Strait of Hormuz is open" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "These developments have raised concerns about security in the Middle East and could impact the global oil market" [Sarkarnama News](https://sarkarnama.esakal.com/desh/iran-us-tensions-strait-hormuz-crisis-india-oil-supply-crude-oil-prices-global-shipping-risk-pp82), published 17 October 2026 - "Shipping traffic remains hostage to political and military developments, as any agreement between Washington and Tehran would be insufficient without practical guarantees for freedom of navigation and the non-targeting of commercial vessels" [الخليج أونلاين Alkhaleej Online](https://alkhaleejonline.net/%d8%a7%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%af/%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b6%d9%8a%d9%82-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%82%d9%81), published 2 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 10 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The description says 'above 25' which means strictly greater than 25, but the parenthetical '(Above 25)' and 'above 25' language is consistent; however, the exact definition of 'transit calls' is not specified (e.g., inbound only, outbound only, or both directions combined). - The resolution date is Nov 17, 2026 at 14:00 UTC, but data completeness depends on IMF PortWatch update schedules, which could delay or affect resolution. - No explicit fallback is specified if IMF PortWatch data is unavailable or revised after initial reporting. - The 7-day window (Nov 9–15) summing methodology is stated, but the specific daily count metric used by IMF PortWatch (e.g., vessel calls, port calls, transits) is not precisely defined. ## Publication history - Published 8 November 2026; research dated 8 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.