# Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Nov 2026? 30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxmaxshipshormuz-26nov01-86f4b358 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 9 November 2026 - Research dated: 9 November 2026 - Published: 9 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmaxshipshormuz/strait-of-hormuz-highest-single-day-traffic-november-2026/kxmaxshipshormuz-26nov01#kxmaxshipshormuz-26nov01-al8 - Venue YES price: 63.0c at 9 November 2026 - Market closes: 8 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 8 in Nov 2026? ## How this market settles If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 8 in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (16 claims) - "Commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain around 70 percent below pre-war levels, according to Al Jazeera" [24 ore lajme](https://24-ore.com/ukmto-sulmet-ne-hormuz-po-nenrraportohen-kalimet-70-per-qind-nen-nivelet-e-para-luftes/), published 17 October 2026 - "Combined inbound and outbound transits through the Strait of Hormuz are approximately 70 percent lower than pre-war levels, according to the UKMTO" [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/ukmto-says-most-vessels-dont-report-hormuz-attacks-traffic-70-below-pre), published 17 October 2026 - "The Russian news agency TASS reported that 22 vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz during the 13 days of October" [ایرنا](https://www.irna.ir/news/86295447/%db%b2%db%b2-%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%b7%db%8c-%db%b1%db%b3-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b2-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d9%86%da%af%d9%87-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b1-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%81%d8%aa), published 18 October 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route, has been severely disrupted since late February, leading to a significant increase in global fuel prices" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "illegal"" [apokalypsnu.com](https://apokalypsnu.com/rt-engels-iran-threatens-to-block-illegal-routes-through-strait-of-hormuz/), published 7 October 2026 - "The Strait of Hormuz has become the most dangerous maritime area in the world due to the confrontation between Iran and the United States and Israel" [24 ore lajme](https://24-ore.com/ukmto-sulmet-ne-hormuz-po-nenrraportohen-kalimet-70-per-qind-nen-nivelet-e-para-luftes/), published 17 October 2026 - "The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy also stated that the consequence for vessels violating Iranian regulations in the Strait of Hormuz is to 'burn in the fire of the American terrorist army's trust" [ایرنا](https://www.irna.ir/news/86295447/%db%b2%db%b2-%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%b7%db%8c-%db%b1%db%b3-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b2-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d9%86%da%af%d9%87-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b1-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%81%d8%aa), published 18 October 2026 - "The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy previously stated on October 17th (Mehr 25th in the Iranian calendar) that the Strait of Hormuz is closed" [ایرنا](https://www.irna.ir/news/86295447/%db%b2%db%b2-%d8%b4%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%b7%db%8c-%db%b1%db%b3-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b2-%d8%af%d8%b1-%d8%aa%d9%86%da%af%d9%87-%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%85%d8%b2-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%ad%d9%85%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b1-%da%af%d8%b1%d9%81%d8%aa), published 18 October 2026 - "Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran deems 'illegal', asserting full control over the strategic waterway despite US claims to the contrary" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains approximately 75% below pre-conflict levels, according to a report from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO)" [Izvestia.ru](https://iz.ru/2174358/sudokhodstvo-cherez-ormuzskii-proliv-snizilos-na-75-dovoennogo-urovnia-izi), published 27 September 2026 - "The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced that a supertanker carrying over 2 million barrels of oil hit a naval mine in the strait and caught fire" [24 ore lajme](https://24-ore.com/ukmto-sulmet-ne-hormuz-po-nenrraportohen-kalimet-70-per-qind-nen-nivelet-e-para-luftes/), published 17 October 2026 - "Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased this week after Iran threatened to retaliate against any new American attacks, amid warnings that the Gulf region's energy infrastructure is at risk" [S A N A](https://sana.sy/international/2600220/), published 8 October 2026 - "Majid Mirahmadi, another IRGC advisor, stated that an average of 10 ships per day are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, compared to a pre-war average of 125 ships per day" [Syri | Lajmi i fundit](https://www.syri.net/bote/921776/paralajmeron-irani-disa-rruge-ne-hormuz-do-te-mbyllen-deri-ne-plotesimin-e-kerkesave-tona/), published 7 October 2026 - "Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has nearly halted due to the conflict between Iran and the USA, leading to increased fuel prices globally" [Взгляд](https://vz.ru/news/2026/10/7/1459949.html), published 7 October 2026 - "The IRGC accused these tankers of attempting to pass through the waterway without Tehran's permission" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/so-luong-tau-thuong-mai-bi-tan-cong-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-dat-muc-ky-luc-2565914.html), published 18 October 2026 ### Context (14 claims) - "The IRGC stated that each tanker was carrying approximately 2 million barrels of crude oil and that the incidents occurred because both vessels turned off their navigation and radar systems before attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via routes not authorized by the Iranian navy" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/so-luong-tau-thuong-mai-bi-tan-cong-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-dat-muc-ky-luc-2565914.html), published 18 October 2026 - "The UKMTO has warned that attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz are underreported" [24 ore lajme](https://24-ore.com/ukmto-sulmet-ne-hormuz-po-nenrraportohen-kalimet-70-per-qind-nen-nivelet-e-para-luftes/), published 17 October 2026 - "The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) is finding it difficult to determine the exact number of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz because most attacked vessels are not reporting incidents to the agency" [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/ukmto-says-most-vessels-dont-report-hormuz-attacks-traffic-70-below-pre), published 17 October 2026 - "October 11 saw the highest number of attacked vessels, with 6 incidents reported" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/so-luong-tau-thuong-mai-bi-tan-cong-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-dat-muc-ky-luc-2565914.html), published 18 October 2026 - "The 2026 Ormuz Strait supply disruption, following the 2022 Ukrainian crisis, has reignited discussions about supply reliability, energy source diversification, and fossil fuel storage" [Портал Neftegaz.ru](https://neftegaz.ru/news/politics/941038-totalenergies-krizis-v-ormuzskom-prolive-v-2026-g-uskoril-energoperekhod/), published 3 November 2026 - "On October 4 and October 13, there were 3 reports each day of damage to commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/so-luong-tau-thuong-mai-bi-tan-cong-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-dat-muc-ky-luc-2565914.html), published 18 October 2026 - "On October 17, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed that two supertankers were hit by mines and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/so-luong-tau-thuong-mai-bi-tan-cong-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-dat-muc-ky-luc-2565914.html), published 18 October 2026 - "According to TASS, a report from the International Maritime Organization on October 17 revealed that 22 vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in the first 13 days of October" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/so-luong-tau-thuong-mai-bi-tan-cong-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-dat-muc-ky-luc-2565914.html), published 18 October 2026 - "A total of 22 commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in the first half of October, surpassing the previous record set in March" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/so-luong-tau-thuong-mai-bi-tan-cong-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-dat-muc-ky-luc-2565914.html), published 18 October 2026 - "The British maritime security agency UKMTO registered 12 attacks in the last weekly period, most of them in the Strait of Hormuz" [24 ore lajme](https://24-ore.com/ukmto-sulmet-ne-hormuz-po-nenrraportohen-kalimet-70-per-qind-nen-nivelet-e-para-luftes/), published 17 October 2026 - "US President Donald Trump claimed that Washington's forces are assisting oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping volumes increasing to over 20 million barrels per day" [VietNamNet News](https://vietnamnet.vn/iran-doa-chan-cac-tuyen-duong-bat-hop-phap-qua-eo-bien-hormuz-2562745.html), published 8 October 2026 - "The UKMTO emphasizes that the actual number of incidents may be higher because many attacks are never reported" [24 ore lajme](https://24-ore.com/ukmto-sulmet-ne-hormuz-po-nenrraportohen-kalimet-70-per-qind-nen-nivelet-e-para-luftes/), published 17 October 2026 - "The UKMTO also stated that transit figures facilitated and reported by the US could not be independently verified" [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/ukmto-says-most-vessels-dont-report-hormuz-attacks-traffic-70-below-pre), published 17 October 2026 - "An advisor to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that 'illegal' shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz will be closed soon" [AL Masry Al Youm](https://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/4377338), published 7 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 11 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The specific IMF PortWatch metric for 'transit calls' is not fully defined — it is unclear whether this counts vessels in one direction, both directions combined, or a specific vessel type subset. - Timezone not specified for defining day boundaries when counting daily transit calls. - The end date of 2026-12-08 suggests data must be available from IMF PortWatch by that date, but it is unclear if November 2026 data will be fully published and finalized by then. - No fallback source specified if IMF PortWatch is unavailable, changes methodology, or discontinues the Strait of Hormuz tracking. - Ambiguity in whether 'transit calls' includes all vessel types or only specific categories (e.g., tankers, cargo ships). ## Publication history - Published 9 November 2026; research dated 9 November 2026. - Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 5 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 9 November 2026. 8 of 19 cited sources are new; 11 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.