# Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 1.2 percentage points? (Colom, 1.2+ pts) 30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxmidtermmov-txsend-412d93bf - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 8 November 2026 - Research dated: 8 November 2026 - Published: 8 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov/mississippi-senate-margin-of-victory/kxmidtermmov-mssend#kxmidtermmov-mssend-p1.2 - Venue YES price: 7.5c at 8 November 2026 - Market closes: 3 November 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 1.2 percentage points? (Colom, 1.2+ pts) ## How this market settles If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Mississippi by 1.2 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (6 claims) - "The Senate race in Mississippi is tight, with the Democrat leading by 0.2 percentage points" [KTVE 10 KARD 14 myarklamiss](https://www.myarklamiss.com/news/mississippi-gop-chair-says-party-will-accept-colom-victory-should-he-win/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Mississippi Senate race between Scott Colom and Cindy Hyde-Smith is very close, with Scott Colom holding a 1,724-vote lead as of Thursday evening" [MS NOW](https://www.ms.now/news/mississippi-senate-election-scott-colom-hyde-smith-recount), published 6 November 2026 - "The Mississippi Senate race remained tight on Friday morning, with Scott Colom leading Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by approximately 2,000 votes" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/06/us/elections/colom-hyde-smith-mississippi-senate-race.html), published 6 November 2026 - "The Mississippi Senate race was not called on election night, with Democrat Scott Colom leading Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith by approximately 1,800 votes" [The Federalist](https://thefederalist.com/2026/11/06/mississippis-midterm-upset-proves-that-demographics-matter-now-more-than-ever/), published 6 November 2026 - "In Mississippi's U.S. Senate race, Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 1,138 votes in unofficial results on Wednesday evening" [WTVA 9 Tupelo](https://www.wtva.com/2026/11/05/did-your-county-help-make-mississippis-senate-race-this-close/), published 5 November 2026 - "Democrat Scott Colom is leading incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by a little over 2,000 votes in Mississippi's U.S. Senate race, with the outcome still uncalled" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6204220-mississippi-senate-race-colom-hyde-smith/), published 6 November 2026 ### Context (24 claims) - "Mississippi's U.S. Senate race between incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Scott Colom remained too close to call on Saturday night, four days after the election" [https://www.actionnews5.com](https://www.actionnews5.com/2026/11/08/mississippi-us-senate-race-remains-too-close-call/), published 8 November 2026 - "Democrats have not won a Senate race in Mississippi since 1982, when John Stennis won his last reelection" [WTVA 9 Tupelo](https://www.wtva.com/2026/11/05/did-your-county-help-make-mississippis-senate-race-this-close/), published 5 November 2026 - "The campaigns of Scott Colom and Cindy Hyde-Smith sent dueling letters to Mississippi election officials regarding the segregation of provisional ballots" [MS NOW](https://www.ms.now/news/mississippi-senate-election-scott-colom-hyde-smith-recount), published 6 November 2026 - "Scott Colom, a Mississippi District Attorney, is running for Senate against incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith" [MS NOW](https://www.ms.now/news/mississippi-senate-election-scott-colom-hyde-smith-recount), published 6 November 2026 - "Lawyers for Democrat Scott Colom stated that departing from ordinary election procedures would violate Mississippi voters' rights and Mississippi election law" [MS NOW](https://www.ms.now/news/mississippi-senate-election-scott-colom-hyde-smith-recount), published 6 November 2026 - "A viral campaign ad helped Democrat Scott Colom make a Senate race in Mississippi unexpectedly competitive against Republican incumbent Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith" [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/how-a-viral-ad-took-democrats-in-mississippi-from-long-shot-to-contenders-12669578), published 6 November 2026 - "Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Scott Colom's campaign stated that Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith's legal team sent a letter to all 82 counties in Mississippi demanding that county election commissioners and circuit clerks separate, secure, and preserve any affidavit ballots cast in the midterm elections" [https://www.wlbt.com](https://www.wlbt.com/2026/11/06/colom-campaign-calls-hyde-smiths-affidavit-ballot-separation-preservation-demand-unlawful-attack-voter-privacy/), published 6 November 2026 - "Cindy Hyde-Smith won reelection in 2020 by approximately 10 percentage points, securing 54.1% of the vote compared to Democrat Mike Espy's 44.1%" [WTVA 9 Tupelo](https://www.wtva.com/2026/11/05/did-your-county-help-make-mississippis-senate-race-this-close/), published 5 November 2026 - "Dr. Glenn J. Antizzo, a professor of political science at Mississippi Christian University, stated, "The race was a lot more competitive than I think anybody expected. To be honest with you, I would not be the least bit surprised if Mr. Colom was surprised by the results last night" [WTVA 9 Tupelo](https://www.wtva.com/2026/11/05/did-your-county-help-make-mississippis-senate-race-this-close/), published 5 November 2026 - "DeSoto County, which Cindy Hyde-Smith carried by about 16 percentage points in 2020, now favors Scott Colom by about 6 percentage points, representing a swing of roughly 22 points" [WTVA 9 Tupelo](https://www.wtva.com/2026/11/05/did-your-county-help-make-mississippis-senate-race-this-close/), published 5 November 2026 - "An attorney for Scott Colom argued that the Republicans' demands "have no basis in Mississippi law" and that departing from ordinary procedures would violate "Mississippi voters' rights and Mississippi election law" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6204220-mississippi-senate-race-colom-hyde-smith/), published 6 November 2026 - "Mississippi political science professor Aaron Hitefield stated that voters appeared "really enthusiastic" about Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6204220-mississippi-senate-race-colom-hyde-smith/), published 6 November 2026 - "Scott Colom's lawyers called the demands for affidavit ballot segregation unlawful and without basis in Mississippi law" [MS NOW](https://www.ms.now/news/mississippi-senate-election-scott-colom-hyde-smith-recount), published 6 November 2026 - "The NAACP announced on Thursday that it has deployed national legal, policy, and field staff to Mississippi to assist voters with ballot cure requirements in the Senate race between incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and Scott Colom (D)" [https://www.wdam.com](https://www.wdam.com/2026/11/05/naacp-deploys-election-protection-resources-staff-mississippi/), published 5 November 2026 - "The chair of the Mississippi Republican Party, Mike Hurst, stated that the party will accept Democrat Scott Colom's victory if he wins against incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)" [KTVE 10 KARD 14 myarklamiss](https://www.myarklamiss.com/news/mississippi-gop-chair-says-party-will-accept-colom-victory-should-he-win/), published 6 November 2026 - "The U.S. Senate race in Mississippi is between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith" [News Channel 3 WREG-TV Memphis](https://wreg.com/news/every-vote-counts-in-narrow-ms-senate-race-says-attorney/), published 7 November 2026 - "Scott Colom leads by roughly 6 points in DeSoto County, which Cindy Hyde-Smith carried by 16 points in 2020" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6205607-hyde-smith-colom-mississippi-senate/), published 7 November 2026 - "Reporter Jim Saksa explained in an analysis for Democracy Docket that the Supreme Court's decision on the Voting Rights Act inspired backlash among Black voters, leading to massive turnout that helped Democrats in Georgia and made Senate races in Mississippi and Louisiana the tightest in decades" [Common Dreams](https://www.commondreams.org/tag/mississippi), published 6 November 2026 - "Mississippi's elections are managed at the county level" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/06/us/elections/colom-hyde-smith-mississippi-senate-race.html), published 6 November 2026 - "DeSoto County, Mississippi, voted Democrat in a Senate race for the first time since 1982, supporting Scott Colom over Cindy Hyde-Smith" [The Federalist](https://thefederalist.com/2026/11/06/mississippis-midterm-upset-proves-that-demographics-matter-now-more-than-ever/), published 6 November 2026 - "In Mississippi, the counting of thousands of remaining votes is ongoing on Friday, three days after Democrats took control of both houses of Congress, amidst a heated race for the state's Senate seat" [France 24](https://www.france24.com/ar/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%ae%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%85%d8%b1%d8%a9/20261106-%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%8a-%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b5%d9%84-%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%b2-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b5%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%85%d8%b9-%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%aa%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%81%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%85%d9%82%d8%b9%d8%af-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%ae), published 6 November 2026 - "Aaron Hitefield, assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Mississippi State University, said that in contrast to Scott Colom, there was "a lot of voter apathy" regarding incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6204220-mississippi-senate-race-colom-hyde-smith/), published 6 November 2026 - "A viral campaign ad and an unexpected appearance at a Donald Trump rally have helped Democratic candidate Scott Colom turn a difficult Senate campaign into a surprisingly close contest in Mississippi" [NDTV](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/how-a-viral-ad-and-trump-rally-appearance-put-a-democrat-in-the-spotlight-12290919), published 6 November 2026 - "The New York Times estimated that 91 percent of Black voters backed Scott Colom" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6205607-hyde-smith-colom-mississippi-senate/), published 7 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 14 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The candidate referenced as 'Colom' is assumed to be the Democratic Party candidate, but this is not explicitly confirmed in the description. - The election year is stated as 2026 but the end date extends to November 2027, creating a potential gap if results are delayed or contested. - No specific official source for vote tallies is defined, leaving open which authority determines the final vote percentages. - If Democratic Party runs under multiple party lines, votes are summed, but criteria for identifying which votes are 'attributable to the same underlying natural person' may be ambiguous in practice. ## Publication history - Published 8 November 2026; research dated 8 November 2026. - Published 4 November 2026; research dated 4 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 4 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 4 November 2026 with research dated 8 November 2026. 22 of 22 cited sources are new; 0 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.