# Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.49 on Dec 31, 2026? (5.5% or above) 26 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxnote10y-26dec31-25d9cfe3 - Category: macro - Evidence collected: 10 November 2026 - Research dated: 10 November 2026 - Published: 10 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnote10y/10y-us-treasury-yield-at-year-end/kxnote10y-26dec31#kxnote10y-26dec31-t5.49 - Venue YES price: 11.0c at 10 November 2026 - Market closes: 31 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be above 5.49 on Dec 31, 2026? (5.5% or above) ## How this market settles If the 10Y US Treasury Yield is above 5.49% on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2026, or one week following Dec 31, 2026. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (4 claims) - "The Federal Reserve's 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield was 2.65% for November 3, compared to 2.60% on October 30 and 2.67% on October 28" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-faces-4200-barrier-as-real-yields-challenge-the-rally-1642727), published 5 November 2026 - "Gold prices increased by 3.23% to $4,066 per ounce on November 4, 2026, as the US 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.889% and the dollar index fell to 101.262" [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-november-5-2026/), published 5 November 2026 - "The US 10-year Treasury yield is down 6.6 basis points at 4.883%, near its lowest level since September 10" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-is-taking-it-clue-from-the-usd-and-yields-moving-lower-technicals-are-also-giving-the-buyers-a-push/), published 4 November 2026 - "The yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.95%" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-silver-platinum-forecasts-gold-pulls-back-as-selling-resumes-1642282), published 3 November 2026 ### Context (22 claims) - "The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.61% level" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-silver-platinum-forecasts-gold-pulls-back-as-selling-resumes-1642282), published 3 November 2026 - "On November 5, global gold prices increased to $4,137.4 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar and declining US Treasury yields" [Báo Nhân Dân điện tử](https://nhandan.vn/gia-vang-ngay-511-dong-loat-tang-manh-post1000305.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Lower Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar are contributing to the gains in gold prices" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-is-taking-it-clue-from-the-usd-and-yields-moving-lower-technicals-are-also-giving-the-buyers-a-push/), published 4 November 2026 - "Lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the precious metal relatively more attractive compared to bonds" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/commodities/gold-is-taking-it-clue-from-the-usd-and-yields-moving-lower-technicals-are-also-giving-the-buyers-a-push/), published 4 November 2026 - "Rising Treasury yields put additional pressure on gold markets" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-silver-platinum-forecasts-gold-pulls-back-as-selling-resumes-1642282), published 3 November 2026 - "Treasury yields are moving higher as bond traders wait for U.S. midterm elections" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-silver-platinum-forecasts-gold-pulls-back-as-selling-resumes-1642282), published 3 November 2026 - "Markets reacted to the prospect of Democrats securing control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/gold-silver-prices-surge-as-us-dollar-drops-after-midterm-elections/4111106), published 4 November 2026 - "A potential legislative gridlock could limit President Donald Trump's ability to advance his economic agenda and curb federal expenditures" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/gold-silver-prices-surge-as-us-dollar-drops-after-midterm-elections/4111106), published 4 November 2026 - "A total Democratic victory might also clear the path for stricter artificial intelligence (AI) regulatory frameworks and intensified corporate oversight" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/gold-silver-prices-surge-as-us-dollar-drops-after-midterm-elections/4111106), published 4 November 2026 - "Higher real yields can make holding gold less attractive because investors can obtain an inflation-adjusted return from government securities, while gold provides no actual income" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-faces-4200-barrier-as-real-yields-challenge-the-rally-1642727), published 5 November 2026 - "The VIX index fell by 20.26% to 16.61 on November 4, 2026, indicating a decrease in market fear" [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-november-5-2026/), published 5 November 2026 - "The Bank of England and Brazil's Copom were scheduled to announce interest rate decisions on November 5, 2026, with US payrolls data due on Friday" [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-november-5-2026/), published 5 November 2026 - "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained its policy rate range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, with two dissenters preferring a 25-basis-point increase" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-faces-4200-barrier-as-real-yields-challenge-the-rally-1642727), published 5 November 2026 - "The BEA's September inflation figures, released October 29, showed PCE prices increasing 3.6% from a year earlier and Core PCE increasing 3.1% annually" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-faces-4200-barrier-as-real-yields-challenge-the-rally-1642727), published 5 November 2026 - "The November 3 JOLTS release reported September job openings at 7.5 million, hires at 5.4 million, and layoffs and discharges at 1.6 million, with each described as little changed" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-faces-4200-barrier-as-real-yields-challenge-the-rally-1642727), published 5 November 2026 - "The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index for the US slipped to 54.5 in October 2026" [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-november-5-2026/), published 5 November 2026 - "ADP reported that 86,000 private sector jobs were added in the US in October 2026" [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-november-5-2026/), published 5 November 2026 - "On November 4, 2026, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,356, marking a 3.03% increase" [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-november-5-2026/), published 5 November 2026 - "FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 76.9% probability that the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at the next meeting in December" [FXEmpire.com](https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-silver-platinum-forecasts-gold-pulls-back-as-selling-resumes-1642282), published 3 November 2026 - "Democrats have taken at least six Senate seats previously held by Republicans, securing a majority in the Senate, according to forecasts based on incomplete results" [Bankier.pl](https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/zloto-znow-lsni-wyborcza-kleska-republikanow-blyskawicznie-podbila-ceny-kruszcu-9223313.html), published 4 November 2026 - "Democrats will also take control of the House of Representatives" [Bankier.pl](https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/zloto-znow-lsni-wyborcza-kleska-republikanow-blyskawicznie-podbila-ceny-kruszcu-9223313.html), published 4 November 2026 - "Democratic candidates won in North Carolina and Maine, as well as in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina, and Iowa, which were previously considered Republican strongholds" [Bankier.pl](https://www.bankier.pl/wiadomosc/zloto-znow-lsni-wyborcza-kleska-republikanow-blyskawicznie-podbila-ceny-kruszcu-9223313.html), published 4 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 26 claims from 6 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The specific data source for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is not explicitly named (e.g., FRED, U.S. Treasury Department, Bloomberg), which could cause disputes if sources differ. - December 31, 2026 is a Thursday, a regular trading day, but if markets close early or are unexpectedly closed, it is unclear which data point would be used. - The threshold is stated as 'above 5.49' in the title but '5.5% or above' in parentheses — these are equivalent only if yields are quoted to two decimal places; a yield of exactly 5.495% could cause ambiguity. - The exact time of day the yield is measured on December 31, 2026 is not specified (e.g., closing yield vs. intraday yield). - No explicit fallback data source or methodology is provided if the primary data release is delayed beyond one week. ## Publication history - Published 10 November 2026; research dated 10 November 2026. - Published 6 November 2026; research dated 6 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 6 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 6 November 2026 with research dated 10 November 2026. 1 of 7 cited sources are new; 6 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.