# What will be the top AI model on Nov 30, 2026? (Gemini 4 Carbon (High)) 30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 16 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxtopmodel-26nov30-4a39c21b - Category: tech - Evidence collected: 11 November 2026 - Research dated: 11 November 2026 - Published: 11 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtopmodel/top-ai-model-this-month/kxtopmodel-26nov30#kxtopmodel-26nov30-gemic - Venue YES price: 73.0c at 11 November 2026 - Market closes: 30 November 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. ## The question, as the venue words it What will be the top AI model on Nov 30, 2026? (Gemini 4 Carbon (High)) ## How this market settles If Gemini 4 Carbon (High) is the top-ranked AI model on Nov 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (16 claims) - "Gemini 4 Carbon achieved 88.2% on SEC-bench Pro, a score described by Google as state-of-the-art for finding security flaws" [Quartz](https://qz.com/gemini-4-carbon-things-to-know), published 4 November 2026 - "Google's internal testing indicates that Gemini 4 Carbon more than doubles the success rate of Gemini 4 Argon at writing secure code" [Quartz](https://qz.com/gemini-4-carbon-things-to-know), published 4 November 2026 - "Google's Gemini 4 Carbon achieved a score of 59 on version 5.0 of the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index" [Quartz](https://qz.com/gemini-4-carbon-things-to-know), published 4 November 2026 - "Gemini 4 Carbon excels in defensive cybersecurity and offers high performance in science, agentic, and coding tasks, as well as in multimodal understanding and full-stack web development" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/10/gemini-4-carbon-ya-esta-disponible-a-traves-de-la-api-de-gemini-en-google-ai-studio/), published 10 November 2026 - "Google has released Gemini 4 Carbon, described as its strongest model with frontier performance in cybersecurity capabilities and long-horizon agentic workflows across complex knowledge work, software engineering, and scientific reasoning" [Search Engine Roundtable](https://www.seroundtable.com/gemini-4-carbon-google-search-ai-mode-42502.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Google has announced the availability of Gemini 4 Carbon, its new Artificial Intelligence (AI) frontier model, which is characterized by its performance in cybersecurity and excels in coding, agentic, and science tasks" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/10/gemini-4-carbon-ya-esta-disponible-a-traves-de-la-api-de-gemini-en-google-ai-studio/), published 10 November 2026 - "Google describes Gemini 4 Carbon as its 'strongest' offering to date, with a focus on cybersecurity applications and 'long-horizon capabilities' for complex, multi-step problem-solving" [techbuzz.ai](https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/google-opens-gemini-4-carbon-to-developers-with-security-focus), published 10 November 2026 - "Gemini 4 Carbon is positioned as a direct competitor to OpenAI's GPT-4 and Anthropic's Claude, offering 'frontier performance' in cybersecurity and long-horizon reasoning" [techbuzz.ai](https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/google-opens-gemini-4-carbon-to-developers-with-security-focus), published 10 November 2026 - "Google stated that Gemini 4 Carbon found real vulnerabilities in 88.2% of SEC-bench Pro cases, patched root causes in 71.0% of CWE-bench cases, and turned flaws into working exploits in 54.8% of ExploitGym cases when tested without guardrails" [hackernoon.com](https://hackernoon.com/gemini-4-carbon-is-locked-heres-what-it-means-for-your-budget-and-your-patch-window), published 6 November 2026 - "On October 28, Google DeepMind released Gemini 4 Carbon, which achieved a score of 59 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index" [hackernoon.com](https://hackernoon.com/gemini-4-carbon-is-locked-heres-what-it-means-for-your-budget-and-your-patch-window), published 6 November 2026 - "On cybersecurity benchmarks, Gemini 4 Carbon can detect critical vulnerabilities, validate them, and generate high-quality patches, according to Google" [PC Mag Middle East](https://me.pcmag.com/en/ai/38481/with-gemini-4-carbon-google-touts-big-leap-in-cybersecurity-capabilities), published 30 October 2026 - "Koray Kavukcuoglu, Senior Vice President at Google DeepMind and Chief AI Architect at Google, described Gemini 4 Carbon as 'our most powerful model, with cutting-edge cybersecurity capabilities and for long-haul tasks" [okdiario.com](https://okdiario.com/techy/gemini-4-carbon-google-ia-ciberseguridad-59-puntos-20685273), published 6 November 2026 - "Google states that Gemini 4 Carbon generates secure code more than twice as successfully as Argon" [okdiario.com](https://okdiario.com/techy/gemini-4-carbon-google-ia-ciberseguridad-59-puntos-20685273), published 6 November 2026 - "Google claims Gemini 4 Carbon holds the top position in version 5.0 of the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with 59 points" [okdiario.com](https://okdiario.com/techy/gemini-4-carbon-google-ia-ciberseguridad-59-puntos-20685273), published 6 November 2026 - "Google reports that Gemini 4 Carbon reduced unsupported claims by approximately half compared to Gemini 4 Argon in the AA-Omniscience v1.1 evaluation" [GSMDome.com](https://www.gsmdome.com/google-s-gemini-4-carbon-takes-top-spot-in-artificial-analysis-ai-index), published 5 November 2026 - "Google states that Gemini 4 Carbon can autonomously work on complex software-engineering projects for multiple days, identifying bugs and proposing fixes" [GSMDome.com](https://www.gsmdome.com/google-s-gemini-4-carbon-takes-top-spot-in-artificial-analysis-ai-index), published 5 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (14 claims) - "The performance claims of Gemini 4 Carbon will be validated by independent benchmarks and real-world testing by developers integrating it into live applications" [techbuzz.ai](https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/google-opens-gemini-4-carbon-to-developers-with-security-focus), published 10 November 2026 - "The launch of Gemini 4 Carbon signals Google's strategic shift to capture enterprise AI spending, targeting developer platforms and B2B deployments" [techbuzz.ai](https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/google-opens-gemini-4-carbon-to-developers-with-security-focus), published 10 November 2026 - "Google's Gemini 4 Carbon emphasizes efficiency and sustainability, potentially influencing procurement decisions for enterprises with ESG commitments" [techbuzz.ai](https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/google-opens-gemini-4-carbon-to-developers-with-security-focus), published 10 November 2026 - "Google has recently unveiled TPU 8tx and 8i Max chips designed for agentic AI workloads and merged its Maps Platform with AI Studio, complementing Gemini 4 Carbon" [techbuzz.ai](https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/google-opens-gemini-4-carbon-to-developers-with-security-focus), published 10 November 2026 - "Google has launched Gemini 4 Carbon, its most significant push into enterprise AI infrastructure to date" [techbuzz.ai](https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/google-opens-gemini-4-carbon-to-developers-with-security-focus), published 10 November 2026 - "Rajan Patel of Google stated on X that Gemini 4 Carbon is being brought to Search and better understands user intent for deeper back-and-forth conversations in AI Mode, rolling out now to Google AI Ultra subscribers" [Search Engine Roundtable](https://www.seroundtable.com/gemini-4-carbon-google-search-ai-mode-42502.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Google is rolling out Gemini 4 Carbon to paid API and AI Ultra users two weeks after releasing it to cyber defenders, and is previewing a swarm feature in Antigravity" [Search Engine Roundtable](https://www.seroundtable.com/gemini-4-carbon-google-search-ai-mode-42502.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Google stated that Gemini 4 Carbon is rolling out to all Google AI Ultra subscribers in Google Antigravity, the Gemini app, and AI Mode in Search" [Search Engine Roundtable](https://www.seroundtable.com/gemini-4-carbon-google-search-ai-mode-42502.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Gemini 4 Carbon is now available in Google Search via AI Mode for subscribers" [Search Engine Roundtable](https://www.seroundtable.com/gemini-4-carbon-google-search-ai-mode-42502.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Robby Stein of Google announced on X that Gemini 4 Carbon is shipping in Search today for Google AI Ultra subscribers, offering deeper reasoning and better instruction following for more helpful responses in AI Mode" [Search Engine Roundtable](https://www.seroundtable.com/gemini-4-carbon-google-search-ai-mode-42502.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Gemini 4 Carbon is being implemented for all Google AI Ultra subscribers in Google Antigravity, the Gemini application, and AI Mode in Search" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/10/gemini-4-carbon-ya-esta-disponible-a-traves-de-la-api-de-gemini-en-google-ai-studio/), published 10 November 2026 - "Google unveiled Gemini 4 Carbon, an artificial intelligence model, on October 28, 2026" [okdiario.com](https://okdiario.com/techy/gemini-4-carbon-google-ia-ciberseguridad-59-puntos-20685273), published 6 November 2026 - "On the Artificial Analysis Coding Agent Index, Gemini 4 Carbon scored 59, ranking second behind Claude Code running Opus 5.5, which scored 62" [hackernoon.com](https://hackernoon.com/gemini-4-carbon-is-locked-heres-what-it-means-for-your-budget-and-your-patch-window), published 6 November 2026 - "Gemini 4 Carbon is currently available only to a select group of cyber defenders through Google's Fairwind Program and is undergoing US government pre-release testing" [hackernoon.com](https://hackernoon.com/gemini-4-carbon-is-locked-heres-what-it-means-for-your-budget-and-your-patch-window), published 6 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 8 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The specific leaderboard source is not explicitly named in the description (assumed to be Chatbot Arena / LMSYS Leaderboard) - 'Remove Style Control' toggle behavior and its effect on rankings may change between now and resolution date - Gemini 4 Carbon (High) does not currently exist as a model, introducing uncertainty about whether it will be released or listed - 'Top-ranked' is defined by Rank (UB) but the exact leaderboard URL or source is unspecified - Timezone interpretation: 10:00 AM ET could be EST (UTC-5) or EDT (UTC-4) depending on daylight saving time; November 30 falls in EST (UTC-5), making 10:00 AM ET = 15:00 UTC, which matches the end date ## Publication history - Published 11 November 2026; research dated 11 November 2026. - Published 7 November 2026; research dated 7 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 7 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 7 November 2026 with research dated 11 November 2026. 4 of 12 cited sources are new; 8 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.