# Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala Harris in Maine? 30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxunderharris-27jan04-d05aee01 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 5 November 2026 - Research dated: 5 November 2026 - Published: 5 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxunderharris/which-democrats-will-underperform-kamala-harris-in-2026/kxunderharris-27jan04#kxunderharris-27jan04-tjac - Venue YES price: 63.0c at 5 November 2026 - Market closes: 4 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will Troy Jackson underperform Kamala Harris in Maine? ## How this market settles If Troy Jackson's certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes. A candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears. Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation or a runoff, the first-round (first-choice) share is used. Kamala Harris's 2024 vote share is her share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote, including every ballot line on which she appeared, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. Shares are compared unrounded. Offices: Troy Jackson, U.S. Senate (Maine); Tina Kotek, Governor (Oregon); Keisha Lance Bottoms, Governor (Georgia); Kathy Hochul, Governor (New York); Chris Pappas, U.S. Senate (New Hampshire); Abdul El-Sayed, U.S. Senate (Michigan); Angie Nixon, U.S. Senate (Florida); David Jolly, Governor (Florida); Peggy Flanagan, U.S. Senate (Minnesota). A market resolves NO if the listed person is not the Democratic nominee (for Minnesota, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee) on that race's 2026 general-election ballot. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (6 claims) - "Susan Collins stated, according to Andrew Desiderio of Punch Bowl News, "It has been the honor of my life to serve the people of Maine in the United States Senate. I'm proud of all I have been able to accomplish for our state and for our country in the past 30 years. I called Troy Jackson tonight to congratulate him and to assure him that my staff and I will work to ensure a smooth transition" [Breitbart](https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/11/03/democrat-troy-jackson-snags-republican-maine-u-s-senate-seat-long-held-by-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Far-left Democrat Troy Jackson won the Maine U.S. Senate race, taking over a seat previously held by Republican Sen. Susan Collins" [Breitbart](https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/11/03/democrat-troy-jackson-snags-republican-maine-u-s-senate-seat-long-held-by-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Susan Collins reportedly called to concede the race to Troy Jackson a few hours after polls closed in Maine" [Breitbart](https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/11/03/democrat-troy-jackson-snags-republican-maine-u-s-senate-seat-long-held-by-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "The Democrat Troy Jackson has won Maine's US Senate race, defeating the five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/03/maine-senate-midterm-results), published 4 November 2026 - "Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) conceded the race to Democrat Troy Jackson" [Alternet.org](https://www.alternet.org/susan-collins-2678022046/), published 4 November 2026 - "Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins has conceded the race for her sixth term to Democrat Troy Jackson" [The Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/susan-collins-concedes-maine-race-to-israel-critic-troy-jackson-ending-her-race-for-6th-term/), published 4 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (24 claims) - "Shortly after midnight, Troy Jackson addressed a crowd of supporters in Portland, stating, "I will be thinking about generations of Mainers who worked in our woods, built our ships, kept our mills running, the people who built this state and deserve a government that works for them" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/04/us/politics/how-troy-jackson-beat-susan-collins.html), published 4 November 2026 - "Troy Jackson, a former Democratic state lawmaker, defeated Senator Susan Collins, a Republican who had served Maine for 30 years" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/04/us/politics/how-troy-jackson-beat-susan-collins.html), published 4 November 2026 - "Troy Jackson, a former logger and state lawmaker from northern Maine, achieved this victory in just 101 days" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/11/04/us/politics/how-troy-jackson-beat-susan-collins.html), published 4 November 2026 - "Democrat Troy Jackson defeated long-time incumbent Republican Maine Senator Susan Collins" [Le Devoir](https://www.ledevoir.com/monde/etats-unis/1022201/maine-etat-ou-guerre-commerciale-etait-enjeu-electoral-elit-democrate), published 4 November 2026 - "The race for the Senate in Maine was between Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson" [G1](https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2026/11/04/eleicoes-nos-eua-democrata-vence-disputa-no-senado-pelo-maine.ghtml), published 4 November 2026 - "On June 27, 2023, Troy Jackson voted for LD 535, a law permitting 16- and 17-year-olds to receive gender-affirming hormone therapy without parental consent if parents or legal guardians object, with the law mandating healthcare providers to counsel patients on the therapy's aspects and the potential involvement of parents or guardians" [LGBTQ Nation](https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/11/lgbtq-ally-troy-jackson-defeats-longtime-gop-sen-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Troy Jackson, who began his political career as a Republican and once voted against marriage equality, has since developed a strong record of opposing anti-LGBTQ+ bills and advocating for queer equality and trans rights" [LGBTQ Nation](https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/11/lgbtq-ally-troy-jackson-defeats-longtime-gop-sen-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "In April 2024, Troy Jackson supported LD 227, a bill designed to shield healthcare providers of gender-affirming care from investigations and prosecutions by states that have banned the practice" [LGBTQ Nation](https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/11/lgbtq-ally-troy-jackson-defeats-longtime-gop-sen-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Recent polls show Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican incumbent Senator Susan Collins in the Maine Senate Race" [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jacksons-chances-beating-susan-collinswhat-final-maine-polls-show-12649760), published 3 November 2026 - "Troy Jackson is 58 years old, a former president of the Maine Senate, and a logger from rural Aroostook County" [vinnews.com](https://vinnews.com/2026/11/04/longtime-israel-supporter-susan-collins-ousted-after-nearly-30-years-in-senate-as-maine-voters-elect-democrat-troy-jackson/), published 4 November 2026 - "Troy Jackson, who previously served as Maine Senate president and majority leader, faced allegations that his longtime partner is his second cousin" [Breitbart](https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/11/03/democrat-troy-jackson-snags-republican-maine-u-s-senate-seat-long-held-by-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Susan Collins argued that Troy Jackson lacked the experience to represent Maine federally and was ideologically inconsistent" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/03/maine-senate-midterm-results), published 4 November 2026 - "A University of New Hampshire poll shows Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by 9 points" [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jacksons-chances-beating-susan-collinswhat-final-maine-polls-show-12649760), published 3 November 2026 - "A YouGov poll shows Troy Jackson leading Susan Collins by 5 points" [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jacksons-chances-beating-susan-collinswhat-final-maine-polls-show-12649760), published 3 November 2026 - "An AtlasIntel poll released on Monday showed Troy Jackson with a 9-point advantage over Susan Collins" [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jacksons-chances-beating-susan-collinswhat-final-maine-polls-show-12649760), published 3 November 2026 - "Susan Collins led Troy Jackson 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent in an Emerson College poll conducted October 31 to November 1, but this result was within the margin of error" [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jacksons-chances-beating-susan-collinswhat-final-maine-polls-show-12649760), published 3 November 2026 - "A New York Times and Siena University poll shows Troy Jackson with a 6-point advantage over Susan Collins" [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jacksons-chances-beating-susan-collinswhat-final-maine-polls-show-12649760), published 3 November 2026 - "In 2023, Troy Jackson also supported LD 1040, a bill that requires MaineCare, Maine's Medicaid program, to fund gender-affirming care for transgender youth" [LGBTQ Nation](https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/11/lgbtq-ally-troy-jackson-defeats-longtime-gop-sen-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "In an April 2026 questionnaire, Troy Jackson stated his opposition to an anti-trans sports ban and the removal of trans student protections within the Maine Human Rights Act" [LGBTQ Nation](https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/11/lgbtq-ally-troy-jackson-defeats-longtime-gop-sen-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Democrat US Senate candidate Troy Jackson has defeated Maine Sen. Susan Collins" [LGBTQ Nation](https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/11/lgbtq-ally-troy-jackson-defeats-longtime-gop-sen-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Maine Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Troy Jackson began Election Day on Tuesday greeting voters in Waterville" [https://www.wabi.tv](https://www.wabi.tv/2026/11/03/troy-jackson-greets-voters-waterville/), published 3 November 2026 - "Troy Jackson's victory has helped secure a Democratic majority in the US Senate, flipping it from red to blue" [LGBTQ Nation](https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2026/11/lgbtq-ally-troy-jackson-defeats-longtime-gop-sen-susan-collins/), published 4 November 2026 - "Troy Jackson entered the race in July after the original Democratic nominee withdrew" [vinnews.com](https://vinnews.com/2026/11/04/longtime-israel-supporter-susan-collins-ousted-after-nearly-30-years-in-senate-as-maine-voters-elect-democrat-troy-jackson/), published 4 November 2026 - "Republican Sen. Susan Collins lost her reelection bid to Democrat Troy Jackson" [vinnews.com](https://vinnews.com/2026/11/04/longtime-israel-supporter-susan-collins-ousted-after-nearly-30-years-in-senate-as-maine-voters-elect-democrat-troy-jackson/), published 4 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 11 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - If Maine's U.S. Senate race uses ranked-choice voting (RCV), only first-round (first-choice) vote shares are used for Jackson — this is specified but could cause confusion if the race does not advance to RCV tabulation - Definition of 'all votes cast' for the denominator in the 2026 race (e.g., whether undervotes, overvotes, or write-ins are included) is not fully specified beyond 'all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office' - The market end date is January 4, 2027, but official certification timelines for Maine may or may not be complete by then, creating a potential timing ambiguity - No explicit fallback is stated if Jackson runs on multiple ballot lines but wins only as a third-party candidate rather than the Democratic nominee ## Publication history - Published 5 November 2026; research dated 5 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.