# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States before Ja 26 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxusameasleseliminate-27-ad5a91da - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 10 November 2026 - Research dated: 10 November 2026 - Published: 10 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxusameasleseliminate/will-the-us-lose-measles-elimination-status-in-2026/kxusameasleseliminate-27#kxusameasleseliminate-27 - Venue YES price: 91.0c at 10 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States before Jan 1, 2027? (Yes) ## How this market settles If PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (8 claims) - "The United States is on track to officially lose its measles-free status, which it achieved in 2000, when a Pan American Health Organisation commission meets next week in Washington" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "The United States is likely to lose its measles elimination status this week" [Washington Examiner](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/healthcare/4797421/us-likely-to-lose-its-measles-elimination-status-this-week-battling-outbreaks/), published 9 November 2026 - "The United Nations health body will determine this week whether the United States will officially lose its 'elimination of measles' status, according to Politico" [شبكة الميادين](https://www.almayadeen.net/news/politics/%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%88-%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b5%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%aa%d8%ad%d8%af%d8%a9-%d9%8a%d8%b6%d8%b9-%d8%a5%d8%b1%d8%ab-%d9%83%d9%8a%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%8a-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a), published 9 November 2026 - "A UN body comprising 8 public health officials will examine this week if the United States can continue to claim it has eliminated measles" [شبكة الميادين](https://www.almayadeen.net/news/politics/%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%88-%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b5%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%aa%d8%ad%d8%af%d8%a9-%d9%8a%d8%b6%d8%b9-%d8%a5%d8%b1%d8%ab-%d9%83%d9%8a%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%8a-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a), published 9 November 2026 - "This potential loss of status follows a review of data from nearly two years of outbreaks, which have resulted in over 7,000 measles cases in the U.S" [Washington Examiner](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/healthcare/4797421/us-likely-to-lose-its-measles-elimination-status-this-week-battling-outbreaks/), published 9 November 2026 - "The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) will evaluate whether the US and Mexico have lost their measles elimination status due to sustained outbreaks" [Respiratory Therapy](https://respiratory-therapy.com/disorders-diseases/infectious-diseases/other-infections/us-may-lose-measles-elimination-status-this-week/), published 8 November 2026 - "The US met a criterion for losing measles elimination status in January 2026, having recorded 12 consecutive months of uninterrupted disease transmission" [Respiratory Therapy](https://respiratory-therapy.com/disorders-diseases/infectious-diseases/other-infections/us-may-lose-measles-elimination-status-this-week/), published 8 November 2026 - "Public health officials advising an arm of the United Nations will consider this week whether the U.S. can still claim it has eliminated measles" [Newsy Today](https://www.newsy-today.com/un-agency-to-decide-if-us-measles-elimination-status-remains/), published 9 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (18 claims) - "As of 2026, there have been 5,182 confirmed cases of measles in the United States, with 330 new cases reported this week, marking the 13th consecutive week of triple-digit increases, according to the CDC" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Ninety-six percent of individuals affected by measles in the US were either unvaccinated or unsure of their vaccination status" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "The United States has reported more than 5,000 confirmed measles cases as of November 5, surpassing a three-decade high and doubling last year's case count" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Two doses of the MMR vaccine offer a 97% effectiveness rate against measles" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Fifty-nine percent of all measles cases in the US occur in children and teenagers" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Eleven percent of those affected by measles in the US have been hospitalized" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Pennsylvania has reported 1,487 cases of measles and six deaths, though health officials believe the outbreak may be subsiding" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Wisconsin has reported 477 cases of measles, a new 35-year peak, with all but 2% of these cases occurring in unvaccinated individuals" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Wisconsin Department of Health Secretary Kirsten Johnson stated in a news release, "It is with a heavy heart we are reporting the first death of an infant connected with a measles outbreak in Wisconsin in many years. My heart is broken for the family" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported four measles deaths as of October 29, with the official nationwide count lagging behind state reporting" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Pennsylvania surpassed 1,000 measles cases in early October, a significant increase from the 106 cases reported statewide last year" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Pennsylvania has reported its sixth measles-related death of the year as of November 4, making it the epicenter of the nation's largest outbreak" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "New York announced its first measles death in 30 years on November 2" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Wisconsin reported its first measles death since 1990 on November 5, which was an infant" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "International health panels recently revoked the measles elimination status of six European and Central Asian nations: the United Kingdom, Spain, Austria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan" [Respiratory Therapy](https://respiratory-therapy.com/disorders-diseases/infectious-diseases/other-infections/us-may-lose-measles-elimination-status-this-week/), published 8 November 2026 - "In November 2025, PAHO revoked Canada's measles elimination status after it confirmed 5,197 cases in 2025" [Respiratory Therapy](https://respiratory-therapy.com/disorders-diseases/infectious-diseases/other-infections/us-may-lose-measles-elimination-status-this-week/), published 8 November 2026 - "The Pan American Health Organization must determine if a single chain of transmission has continued for at least a year to strip the U.S. of its measles elimination status" [Newsy Today](https://www.newsy-today.com/un-agency-to-decide-if-us-measles-elimination-status-remains/), published 9 November 2026 - "The U.S. and Mexico were scheduled to attend a meeting with PAHO to review their measles elimination statuses in April, but it was pushed back to November" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/newsletters/healthcare/6205697-us-mexico-measles-status-review/), published 7 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 26 claims from 7 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The 'Source Agencies' are referenced but not explicitly listed or defined in the provided description, creating uncertainty about which outlets qualify. - 'Issuance' date is not explicitly stated in the description, leaving ambiguity about the start of the qualifying reporting window. - The distinction between endemic measles transmission being 're-established' vs. ongoing outbreak activity is not operationally defined, which could cause disputes about what constitutes an RVC determination. - No explicit official source or document type (e.g., formal RVC report, press release) is specified for what counts as the RVC determination itself. - Timezone of the January 1, 2027 deadline is specified as 09:48:00Z in end date metadata but the description only says 'before Jan 1, 2027', creating a potential boundary ambiguity. ## Publication history - Published 10 November 2026; research dated 10 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.