# Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election? 30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 21 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxvotegeneral-senateak-26dsul-abe6bedb - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 4 November 2026 - Research dated: 4 November 2026 - Published: 4 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvotegeneral/alaska-senate-election-dan-s-sullivan-vote-percent-1st-round/kxvotegeneral-senateak-26dsul#kxvotegeneral-senateak-26dsul-48 - Venue YES price: 6.0c at 4 November 2026 - Market closes: 3 November 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election? ## How this market settles If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The percentage is based on the first round of voting. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (21 claims) - "US President Donald Trump stated, "They [the Democrats] found a guy named Dan Sullivan. They put him up to get [voters] a little confused" [Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/2026-us-election-results-how-the-tale-of-2-dan-sullivans-in-alaska-is-similar-to-3-rahul-gandhis-in-india-14057593.html), published 4 November 2026 - "According to Republicans, the presence of Daniel J Sullivan Jr. on the ballot is a tactic by Democrats to confuse voters" [Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/2026-us-election-results-how-the-tale-of-2-dan-sullivans-in-alaska-is-similar-to-3-rahul-gandhis-in-india-14057593.html), published 4 November 2026 - "US President Donald Trump accused Democrats of fielding a Dan Sullivan to misguide voters" [Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/2026-us-election-results-how-the-tale-of-2-dan-sullivans-in-alaska-is-similar-to-3-rahul-gandhis-in-india-14057593.html), published 4 November 2026 - "In Alaska, two candidates named Dan Sullivan are on the Senate ballot" [Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/2026-us-election-results-how-the-tale-of-2-dan-sullivans-in-alaska-is-similar-to-3-rahul-gandhis-in-india-14057593.html), published 4 November 2026 - "According to The New York Times, a staffer for Mary Peltola received instructions in the summer of 2025 to find individuals named Dan Sullivan in Alaska" [Mediaite](https://www.mediaite.com/politics/alaska-republican-immediately-stresses-out-he-mightve-voted-for-the-decoy-dan-sullivan/), published 2 November 2026 - "Mary Peltola received 49.5 percent of the vote in the primary, while Dan Sullivan received 41.4 percent" [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6140955-alaska-live-results-2026-senate-election/), published 3 November 2026 - "US Sen. Dan Sullivan stated, "We've been hearing from all kinds of people that are confused. I've heard from people who think they've voted for the wrong guy and have apologized to me. Just like I said, the scheme is working" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/us-senator-claims-same-name-candidate-causes-voter-confusion-in-alaska-election/4110655), published 3 November 2026 - "US Sen. Dan Sullivan said some voters had mistaken him for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher also on the ballot" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/us-senator-claims-same-name-candidate-causes-voter-confusion-in-alaska-election/4110655), published 3 November 2026 - "US Sen. Dan Sullivan claimed on Tuesday that voters were confused by another candidate with the same name on Alaska's Senate ballot" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/us-senator-claims-same-name-candidate-causes-voter-confusion-in-alaska-election/4110655), published 3 November 2026 - "US Sen. Dan Sullivan alleged a Democratic scheme to mislead voters" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/us-senator-claims-same-name-candidate-causes-voter-confusion-in-alaska-election/4110655), published 3 November 2026 - "Democratic candidate Mary Peltola was leading incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 626 votes, but the name similarity on the ballot disrupted the balance" [Haberler](https://www.haberler.com/haberler/alaskada-isim-benzerligi-cumhuriyetcileri-bir-20396366-haberi/), published 4 November 2026 - "Democratic candidate Mary Peltola was leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 626 votes" [Haberler](https://www.haberler.com/haberler/alaskada-isim-benzerligi-cumhuriyetcileri-bir-20396366-haberi/), published 4 November 2026 - "The alleged plan aimed to sow confusion and cost the "real" Daniel S. Sullivan enough votes to potentially alter the election outcome" [redstate.com](https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2026/11/02/watch-voter-shows-exactly-the-problem-of-the-decoy-dan-gambit-n2208938), published 2 November 2026 - "Voters might confuse Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. with Daniel S. Sullivan if they do not read the entire ballot" [redstate.com](https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2026/11/02/watch-voter-shows-exactly-the-problem-of-the-decoy-dan-gambit-n2208938), published 2 November 2026 - "A voter interviewed expressed uncertainty about seeing a second "Dan Sullivan" on the ballot and intended to vote for the "real" Dan Sullivan" [redstate.com](https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2026/11/02/watch-voter-shows-exactly-the-problem-of-the-decoy-dan-gambit-n2208938), published 2 November 2026 - "The Peltola campaign is alleged to have solicited Daniel J. Sullivan to run in the election to confuse voters and siphon votes away from the incumbent senator" [redstate.com](https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2026/11/02/watch-voter-shows-exactly-the-problem-of-the-decoy-dan-gambit-n2208938), published 2 November 2026 - "The New York Times reported that staffers for Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK), an opponent of Senator Dan Sullivan, allegedly worked to find another "Dan Sullivan" to divert votes" [Mediaite](https://www.mediaite.com/politics/alaska-republican-immediately-stresses-out-he-mightve-voted-for-the-decoy-dan-sullivan/), published 2 November 2026 - "Greg Martone admitted, "There is a slight possibility I voted for the wrong Dan Sullivan. I mean there is a slight possibility -- I'm hoping I'm just kinda getting paranoid" [Mediaite](https://www.mediaite.com/politics/alaska-republican-immediately-stresses-out-he-mightve-voted-for-the-decoy-dan-sullivan/), published 2 November 2026 - "Reporter Nancy Loo observed that Greg Martone was "genuinely confused" by the ballot and believed he may have voted for Dan J. Sullivan instead of the incumbent Republican Senator" [Mediaite](https://www.mediaite.com/politics/alaska-republican-immediately-stresses-out-he-mightve-voted-for-the-decoy-dan-sullivan/), published 2 November 2026 - "Greg Martone, an Alaskan voter, expressed uncertainty about whether he voted for Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) or a "decoy" Dan J. Sullivan" [Mediaite](https://www.mediaite.com/politics/alaska-republican-immediately-stresses-out-he-mightve-voted-for-the-decoy-dan-sullivan/), published 2 November 2026 - "The New York Times reported that the Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola's campaign recruited Daniel J. Sullivan, referred to as "Decoy Dan" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/alaska-senate-candidate-decoy-dan-sullivan-missing-on-election-day-as-trump-alleges-criminal-act/), published 3 November 2026 ### Context (9 claims) - "In the Aug. 18 jungle primary, Daniel J. Sullivan received 2.5% of the vote, and Gerald Heikes received 1.1%, with both advancing to the general election" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/alaska-senate-candidate-decoy-dan-sullivan-missing-on-election-day-as-trump-alleges-criminal-act/), published 3 November 2026 - "An independent candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who shared the same first and last name as the Republican Senator, received 3,583 votes" [Haberler](https://www.haberler.com/haberler/alaskada-isim-benzerligi-cumhuriyetcileri-bir-20396366-haberi/), published 4 November 2026 - "US Senator Dan Sullivan stated that he received many calls from voters in Alaska on election day" [Shekulli](https://shekulli.com.al/kandidatet-kishin-emrin-dhe-mbiemrin-e-njejte-ngaterrohen-votuesit-ne-alaska-i29001), published 3 November 2026 - "Revelations About Dan Sullivan's Son: A Registered Democrat on Capitol Hill - News Addicts. The revelations surrounding Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from Alaska, have taken a surprising turn. His son, Noah Casey Sullivan, is a registered Democrat and currently works as a field representative for a Democratic congresswoman from Washington. The elder Sullivan shares a name with inc" [News Addicts](https://newsaddicts.com/revelations-about-dan-sullivans-son-a-registered-democrat-on-capitol-hill/), published 1 November 2026 - "Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is running against Democrat Mary Peltola and two other candidates, including Daniel J Sullivan Jr" [Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/2026-us-election-results-how-the-tale-of-2-dan-sullivans-in-alaska-is-similar-to-3-rahul-gandhis-in-india-14057593.html), published 4 November 2026 - "The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has begun a probe into the Dan Sullivan Senate race in Alaska" [Firstpost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/2026-us-election-results-how-the-tale-of-2-dan-sullivans-in-alaska-is-similar-to-3-rahul-gandhis-in-india-14057593.html), published 4 November 2026 - "Daniel J. Sullivan did not respond to emails or text messages from The Post on Tuesday, and his voicemail played a Halloween-themed message" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/alaska-senate-candidate-decoy-dan-sullivan-missing-on-election-day-as-trump-alleges-criminal-act/), published 3 November 2026 - "The recruitment of Daniel J. Sullivan by Mary Peltola's campaign prompted a Justice Department investigation and litigation to potentially stall election result certification" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/alaska-senate-candidate-decoy-dan-sullivan-missing-on-election-day-as-trump-alleges-criminal-act/), published 3 November 2026 - "Daniel J. Sullivan reportedly left his hometown of Petersburg last Monday, with a former student spotting him on a flight to Anchorage" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/11/03/us-news/alaska-senate-candidate-decoy-dan-sullivan-missing-on-election-day-as-trump-alleges-criminal-act/), published 3 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 9 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system; the definition of 'first round' must be clarified as the initial tabulation before any RCV elimination rounds - The 2026 Alaska Senate election has not yet occurred; if the election is canceled, postponed, or Sullivan does not appear on the ballot, resolution criteria are undefined - No specific official source or certifying authority is named beyond 'certified/official results' - Rounding methodology (round half up, half to even, etc.) for the two decimal places is not specified, which could matter in borderline cases ## Publication history - Published 4 November 2026; research dated 4 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.