# Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026? ($115.01 or above) 30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/kxwtimax-26dec31-ceba2da8 - Category: macro - Evidence collected: 4 November 2026 - Research dated: 4 November 2026 - Published: 4 November 2026 - Market: Kalshi, https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwtimax/how-high-will-oil-wti-get-by-dec-31-2026/kxwtimax-26dec31#kxwtimax-26dec31-t115 - Venue YES price: 28.6c at 4 November 2026 - Market closes: 31 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026? ($115.01 or above) ## How this market settles If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $115 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (6 claims) - "Crude oil prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) are predicted to range between US$98.20 and US$108.30 per barrel next week" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "At the same time, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for December delivery was priced at $102.71 per barrel" [TRT haber](https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/brent-petrolun-varili-11157-dolardan-islem-goruyor-961706.html), published 30 October 2026 - "The price of WTI crude oil December futures increased by 2.88% to $104.94 per barrel" [Газета.Ru](https://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2026/10/30/29636197.shtml), published 30 October 2026 - "West Texas Intermediate US oil gained $1.45, or 1.5 percent, to $97.91" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "International crude oil prices have surged, with Brent crude exceeding $110 per barrel and US WTI crude reaching $101 per barrel, a nearly 10% increase in a week" [ManoramaOnline](https://www.manoramaonline.com/business/stock-market/2026/10/17/crude-oil-price-indian-it-stocks-2026.html), published 17 October 2026 - "Brent crude oil surpassed $109 per barrel on Friday, October 16, 2026, while US WTI crude traded above $100 for the first time since September 21" [NewsIT](https://www.newsit.gr/oikonomia/agores/petrelaio-kai-fysiko-aerio-sta-ypsi-anisyxies-gia-tis-epiptoseis-tis-krisis-se-mesi-anatoli-kai-oukrania/4800303/), published 16 October 2026 ### Context (24 claims) - "Oil prices rebounded after a significant drop in the previous session" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "An Iranian official stated that Tehran and Washington were still far from reaching an agreement to end the war" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "Currency and commodity observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the surge in oil prices is triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide as the year-end approaches" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "Tensions between North Korea and South Korea in Asia are adding to global market uncertainty, impacting the strengthening dollar index and oil prices" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "Brent crude futures rose by $1.36, or 1.3 percent, to $106.13 a barrel" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "Both benchmarks had previously fallen more than 7 percent when talks between Iranian and Qatari officials raised hopes for an end to the US and Israeli war against Iran" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "Some US officials described the attacks as defensive and aimed at preventing Iran from attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated that Tehran had given Washington a 'firm and rational response' and that 'the ball is in the United States' court'" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "The United States launched an attack on the Iranian island of Qeshm" [Milenio.com](https://www.milenio.com/negocios/precio-del-petroleo-hoy-3-noviembre-de-2026-brent-wti-suben), published 3 November 2026 - "West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Dubai crude also exceeded $100 per barrel" [CNews](http://www.thecommoditiesnews.com/news/articleview.html), published 16 October 2026 - "The price of Brent crude, a global benchmark, approached $110 per barrel" [CNews](http://www.thecommoditiesnews.com/news/articleview.html), published 16 October 2026 - "On November 16th, Brent crude for December delivery closed at $109.86 per barrel, the highest closing price since May 19th" [CNews](http://www.thecommoditiesnews.com/news/articleview.html), published 16 October 2026 - "The conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran in the Middle East shows no signs of subsiding" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "Ibrahim Assuaibi highlighted an incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving an attack on fishermen and retaliatory actions against ships in the strategic area" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "The situation intensified after Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, ordered an update of potential military targets in anticipation of a US attack post-midterm elections" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "Ibrahim Assuaibi noted that negotiations were ongoing in Doha this week, but attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and new tensions could emerge in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait due to sporadic attacks by Yemen's Houthi group on Saudi Arabian territory" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "The conflict in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine continues, with Russia threatening British bases" [Media Indonesia - News & Views -](https://mediaindonesia.com/ekonomi/950979/harga-minyak-mentah-wti-diprediksi-tembus-us10830-per-barel-pekan-depan), published 1 November 2026 - "US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil strengthened by 3.5% to US$101.41 per barrel" [Liputan 6](https://www.liputan6.com/bisnis/read/8315189/harga-minyak-dunia-tembus-us-110-selat-hormuz-memanas), published 17 October 2026 - "On October 16, the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery reached $110 per barrel, the first time since May 20, 2026" [Газета.Ru](https://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2026/10/30/29636197.shtml), published 30 October 2026 - "On a weekly basis, Brent crude rose by 4.1% and WTI by 8.6%, as investors assessed new threats to oil supply from the Middle East and Russia's export capabilities" [NewsIT](https://www.newsit.gr/oikonomia/agores/petrelaio-kai-fysiko-aerio-sta-ypsi-anisyxies-gia-tis-epiptoseis-tis-krisis-se-mesi-anatoli-kai-oukrania/4800303/), published 16 October 2026 - "Brent crude futures rose by 3.2% to $109.34 per barrel, and US WTI crude increased by 2.8% to $100.67 per barrel" [NewsIT](https://www.newsit.gr/oikonomia/agores/petrelaio-kai-fysiko-aerio-sta-ypsi-anisyxies-gia-tis-epiptoseis-tis-krisis-se-mesi-anatoli-kai-oukrania/4800303/), published 16 October 2026 - "As of 09:30 today, Brent crude oil prices have risen approximately 0.7% to $111.57 per barrel compared to the closing price" [TRT haber](https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/brent-petrolun-varili-11157-dolardan-islem-goruyor-961706.html), published 30 October 2026 - "The price of Brent crude oil rose to $113.6 per barrel, an increase of 2.53% from the previous closing price, according to trading data at 04:50 Moscow time" [Газета.Ru](https://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2026/10/30/29636197.shtml), published 30 October 2026 - "Dubai crude, primarily imported by South Korea, decreased to $106 per barrel from $107.01 the previous day" [CNews](http://www.thecommoditiesnews.com/news/articleview.html), published 16 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 8 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The description says 'above $115' while the title and threshold say '$115.01 or above', creating a minor ambiguity about whether exactly $115.00 resolves YES or NO - The term 'Issuance' is not precisely defined with a specific date/time, leaving the start boundary ambiguous - The data source is listed as ICE, but WTI front-month settlements are typically reported by CME/NYMEX; ICE may not be the authoritative source for this specific contract - The end date cutoff time of 19:30Z on Dec 31, 2026 may not align with the settlement time for the final trading session, potentially causing ambiguity about whether the Dec 31 settle price is included ## Publication history - Published 4 November 2026; research dated 4 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.