# Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? 30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026-349c3dec - Category: weather - Evidence collected: 10 November 2026 - Research dated: 10 November 2026 - Published: 10 November 2026 - Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-in-2026#0xfa3dc3876b9210267914d74d4686a2c71bec3bf37bc1dc059a70f3e3e41ca1a7 - Venue YES price: 37.0c at 10 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. ## The question, as the venue words it Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? ## How this market settles This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (2 claims) - "Four former advisers state that dismantling the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has made it harder for the US to respond to the measles outbreak, with vaccine recommendations remaining unchanged during a significant rise in cases and deaths" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/10/measles-outbreak-vaccinations-acip), published 10 November 2026 - "Yvonne "Bonnie" Maldonado, chief of infectious diseases at Stanford Medicine and a former ACIP member, stated that the ACIP "definitely" would discuss updating its advice as measles spreads, but "we don't have an ACIP" currently, which "is going to impact disease and deaths in the US" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/10/measles-outbreak-vaccinations-acip), published 10 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (13 claims) - "Guatemala, Mexico, the United States, Peru, and Canada accounted for 99.5 percent of the confirmed measles cases in the Region of the Americas during the period of January 1 to October 31, 2026" [Archyde](https://www.archyde.com/measles-cases-in-the-americas-increase-4-7-fold-in-2026-mesvaccins-reports/), published 10 November 2026 - "By November 5, 2026, the United States had logged 5,182 confirmed measles cases, impacting 47 jurisdictions nationwide, with Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wisconsin reporting the highest totals" [Archyde](https://www.archyde.com/measles-cases-in-the-americas-increase-4-7-fold-in-2026-mesvaccins-reports/), published 10 November 2026 - "As of 2026, there have been 5,182 confirmed cases of measles in the United States, with 330 new cases reported this week, marking the 13th consecutive week of triple-digit increases, according to the CDC" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Pennsylvania has reported 1,487 cases of measles and six deaths, though health officials believe the outbreak may be subsiding" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Wisconsin has reported 477 cases of measles, a new 35-year peak, with all but 2% of these cases occurring in unvaccinated individuals" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Pennsylvania has the highest number of measles cases in the United States, with six deaths reported in 2026, according to ABC News" [Franceinfo](https://www.franceinfo.fr/sante/maladie/des-milliers-de-cas-confirmes-plusieurs-morts-en-pennsylvanie-une-vaccination-en-recul-ce-que-l-on-sait-de-l-epidemie-de-rougeole-aux-etats-unis_8269070.html), published 5 November 2026 - "In 2026, eight deaths and over 5,000 cases of measles were recorded in the United States, marking a reversal of the downward trend observed in recent years, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)" [europa press](https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-muertes-casos-sarampion-disparan-2026-eeuu-caida-vacunaciones-20261107130517.html), published 7 November 2026 - "The United States is experiencing its largest measles outbreak in over 35 years, with 5,182 cases confirmed this year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)" [Lietuvos Radijas ir Televizija](https://www.lrt.lt/naujienos/sveikata/682/3107044/jav-patiria-didziausia-tymu-protruki-per-daugiau-kaip-35-metus), published 7 November 2026 - "The United States is experiencing its largest measles outbreak in 35 years, with 5,182 confirmed cases since the beginning of 2026" [ZDROWIE](https://www.zdrowie.co.pl/odra-powraca-rekord-zachorowan-w-usa-43660829.html), published 7 November 2026 - "The United States is experiencing a widespread measles outbreak, with approximately 5,182 cases recorded since the beginning of 2026, marking the highest annual total in about 35 years" [عربي21](https://arabi21.com/story/1801468/%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%b9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%b7%d8%b9%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%8a%d8%b9%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b5%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%ac%d9%87%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b2%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%ad%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d8%a3%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-5-%d8%a2%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%81-%d8%a5%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a9), published 7 November 2026 - "The United States is experiencing its worst measles outbreak in 35 years, with more than 5,000 confirmed infections and at least eight deaths reported nationwide" [matzav.com](https://matzav.com/measles-crisis-u-s-cases-top-5000-for-first-time-in-35-years-as-death-toll-rises-to-eight/), published 8 November 2026 - "The United States recorded over 5,000 cases of measles in 2026, a number not seen in the last 30 years, according to official data released on Friday (6)" [Imprensa Pública](https://imprensapublica.com.br/eua-tem-aumento-recorde-de-casos-de-sarampo-em-30-anos/), published 7 November 2026 - "The United States has recorded an unprecedented rise in measles cases, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reporting approximately 5,182 cases since the beginning of 2026" [صوت بيروت إنترناشونال](https://www.sawtbeirut.com/health/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b5%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b3%d8%ac%d9%84-%d8%b1%d9%82%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%82%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%8b-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d9%83/), published 6 November 2026 ### Context (15 claims) - "Approximately 96 percent of measles cases in the United States occurred in individuals who were unvaccinated or whose vaccination status was unknown" [Archyde](https://www.archyde.com/measles-cases-in-the-americas-increase-4-7-fold-in-2026-mesvaccins-reports/), published 10 November 2026 - "A total of 81 deaths from measles were reported across the Region of the Americas between January 1 and October 31, 2026, with 53 in Guatemala, 23 in Mexico, three in the United States, one in Peru, and one in Bolivia" [Archyde](https://www.archyde.com/measles-cases-in-the-americas-increase-4-7-fold-in-2026-mesvaccins-reports/), published 10 November 2026 - "During epidemiological weeks 41 and 42 of 2026, the Region of the Americas registered 547 new confirmed measles cases in six countries and territories, a 38 percent decrease compared to the preceding two-week period" [Archyde](https://www.archyde.com/measles-cases-in-the-americas-increase-4-7-fold-in-2026-mesvaccins-reports/), published 10 November 2026 - "A once almost-forgotten disease is spiking in the US. See latest numbers. The resurgence of measles in the United States has far surpassed a three-decade high, doubling last year's case count and causing multiple deaths as the country approaches an international investigation of its handling of the highly infectious disease. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention" [Yahoo](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/measles-deaths-reported-us-outbreak-214711125.html), published 5 November 2026 - "Between January 1, 2026, and October 31, 2026, the Region of the Americas recorded 57,666 confirmed cases of measles across 17 countries and territories, a 4.7-fold increase compared to the same period in 2025, according to MesVaccins" [Archyde](https://www.archyde.com/measles-cases-in-the-americas-increase-4-7-fold-in-2026-mesvaccins-reports/), published 10 November 2026 - "The current measles outbreak in the US is primarily attributed to a decline in vaccination coverage, fueled by the rise of anti-vaccine movements" [Metrópoles](https://www.metropoles.com/saude/mais-de-5-mil-casos-surto-de-sarampo-nos-eua-em-2026-e-o-maior-em-35-anos), published 7 November 2026 - "Fifty-nine percent of all measles cases in the US occur in children and teenagers" [GEO TV](https://www.geo.tv/latest/690153-us-measles-cases-top-5100-as-nation-faces-loss-of-elimination-status), published 7 November 2026 - "Paul Offit, an infectious diseases physician at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and former ACIP member, expressed doubt about the monitoring of adult measles infections and the strategies for vaccinating adults, asking, "Are we trying to vaccinate them? It's harder. You can have school mandates, but what do you do for adults?" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/10/measles-outbreak-vaccinations-acip), published 10 November 2026 - "The US has announced three deaths associated with measles last week, including a seven-month-old baby in New York and a postpartum woman in Pennsylvania" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/10/measles-outbreak-vaccinations-acip), published 10 November 2026 - "A functioning ACIP would likely consider recommendations on vaccinating adults, advancing the childhood measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination schedule in affected areas, and identifying specific groups and regions for vaccination campaigns" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/10/measles-outbreak-vaccinations-acip), published 10 November 2026 - "Edwin Asturias, professor of pediatric infectious disease at the University of Colorado and former ACIP member, suggested that advice on vaccination during outbreaks could be emphasized more, and recommendations could be changed to "tell the pediatricians and providers we are in a huge outbreak" [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/nov/10/measles-outbreak-vaccinations-acip), published 10 November 2026 - "The CDC report highlights that 96% of the measles cases in 2026 were among unvaccinated individuals or those with an unknown vaccination status" [europa press](https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-muertes-casos-sarampion-disparan-2026-eeuu-caida-vacunaciones-20261107130517.html), published 7 November 2026 - "The CDC reported 43 new measles outbreak clusters in 2026" [صحيفة الخليج](https://www.alkhaleej.ae/2026-11-07/%d9%85%d9%86%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%aa/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b5%d8%ad%d8%a9/%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%88%d9%84-%d9%85%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b0-1991-%d8%a5%d8%b5%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad%d8%b5%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a3%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d8%aa%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b2-5000), published 7 November 2026 - "The CDC states that approximately 5,200 cases of measles have been recorded this year in almost all US states" [TAG24](https://www.tag24.com/en/topic/health/three-people-die-of-measles-in-the-us-within-a-week-3547892), published 8 November 2026 - "The number of measles cases this year is more than double the total for last year and represents the highest figure in decades" [TAG24](https://www.tag24.com/en/topic/health/three-people-die-of-measles-in-the-us-within-a-week-3547892), published 8 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 15 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 3 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - If the CDC counter becomes unavailable, the market description states 'another credible source will be used' without specifying which source, introducing potential dispute about which alternative source qualifies. - The market end date is January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC, but the resolution window ends December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (which is January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC) — these appear consistent but the CDC may update counts after the resolution timestamp, potentially creating timing ambiguity. - It is unclear whether the CDC counter reflects only cases with onset dates within 2026 or cases reported/confirmed within 2026, which could affect the count at resolution time. ## Publication history - Published 10 November 2026; research dated 10 November 2026. - Published 6 November 2026; research dated 6 November 2026. - Published 30 October 2026; research dated 30 October 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 6 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 6 November 2026 with research dated 10 November 2026. 32 of 34 cited sources are new; 2 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.