# Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000? 30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 25 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/nikkei-225-close-price-end-of-2026-3a64bd01 - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 12 November 2026 - Research dated: 12 November 2026 - Published: 12 November 2026 - Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/nikkei-225-close-price-end-of-2026#0x86688046dc824be3db1e8f40b5df9ee08f6f1142a104348e5920d29b09c49a89 - Venue YES price: 13.0c at 12 November 2026 - Market closes: 31 December 2026 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. ## The question, as the venue words it Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be between 70,000 and 75,000? ## How this market settles This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.” ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (25 claims) - "The Nikkei fell below 60,000 points for the first time in over five months" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/el-nikkei-se-hunde-casi-un-55-tras-temores-globales-por-el-sector-de-la-ia/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Nikkei 225 stock average declined more than 7% on Friday morning, falling below 60,000 for the first time since May" [The Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/11/06/markets/market-nov-6/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Japanese stock market strengthened in trading on Monday, November 9, 2026, after significant selling pressure on technology stocks last week pushed the Nikkei 225 index into bear market territory" [kontan.co.id](https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/nikkei-rebound-2-usai-anjlok-6-senin-911-saham-teknologi-jepang-mulai-bangkit), published 9 November 2026 - "At the start of trading, the Nikkei 225 rose 2% to 58,584.11, recovering some of the sharp 6% decline that occurred on Friday, November 6, 2026" [kontan.co.id](https://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/nikkei-rebound-2-usai-anjlok-6-senin-911-saham-teknologi-jepang-mulai-bangkit), published 9 November 2026 - "At 9:25 a.m. on Friday, the Nikkei 225 stood at 56,971.00, down 4,106.90 points (6.72 pct) from Thursday's close" [Adnkronos](https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/akieng/nikkei-briefly-plunges-over-4-100-points-in-morning_7izym31ofhboj2x2ilbhkv), published 6 November 2026 - "In the first 15 minutes of trading, the 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average rose 1,179.56 points, or 2.05 percent, from Friday to 58,614.33" [毎日新聞](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261109/p2g/00m/0bu/007000c), published 9 November 2026 - "As of midday on the Tokyo stock market two days ago, the Nikkei average stock price narrowed its decline, trading around 63,100 yen, down about 170 yen from the previous weekend" [日本経済新聞](https://www.nikkei.com/article/dgxzqofl020ej0s6a101c2000000/), published 2 November 2026 - "Tokyo stocks opened higher on Monday, supported by buybacks after the Nikkei stock index had lost more than 7,200 points over the past five trading days" [毎日新聞](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20261109/p2g/00m/0bu/007000c), published 9 November 2026 - "Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average rebounded sharply on Monday morning" [Adnkronos](https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/akieng/nikkei-rallies-sharply-in-morning-after-last-weeks-plunge_5uyaixbopt9bovkddtlbs5), published 9 November 2026 - "At 11:06 a.m. on Monday, the Nikkei 225 stood at 59,394.41, up 1,959.64 points, or 3.41 pct, from Friday's closing" [Adnkronos](https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/akieng/nikkei-rallies-sharply-in-morning-after-last-weeks-plunge_5uyaixbopt9bovkddtlbs5), published 9 November 2026 - "On November 6th, the Nikkei average in the Tokyo market closed at 57,434.77 yen, down 3,643.13 yen (5.96%) from the previous day, falling below the 60,000 yen mark" [財経新聞](https://www.zaikei.co.jp/article/20261107/876502.html), published 6 November 2026 - "The Nikkei average fell for the fifth consecutive day, closing at 57,434.77 yen, down 5.96% or 3,643.13 yen from the previous trading day" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/jp/markets/japan/bumvr6rfx5lddcybvhx3bunz2a-2026-11-06/), published 6 November 2026 - "As of 9:30 PM, the Nikkei Stock Average was down 3366.52 yen from the previous day's closing price, standing at 57,711.38 yen" [産経ニュース](https://www.sankei.com/article/20261106-nzcipvxr45kb5lzugzlq3fcavq/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Nikkei 225 slipped below 57,000 intraday for the first time since April 13" [Adnkronos](https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/akieng/nikkei-briefly-plunges-over-4-100-points-in-morning_7izym31ofhboj2x2ilbhkv), published 6 November 2026 - "Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average briefly lost more than 4,100 points on Friday morning" [Adnkronos](https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/akieng/nikkei-briefly-plunges-over-4-100-points-in-morning_7izym31ofhboj2x2ilbhkv), published 6 November 2026 - "In the previous session, the Nikkei closed with a decline of 1.79%" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/el-nikkei-se-hunde-casi-un-55-tras-temores-globales-por-el-sector-de-la-ia/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Nikkei 225 stock average plunged last week amid a sell-off that mainly hit semiconductor-related issues" [Adnkronos](https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/akieng/nikkei-rallies-sharply-in-morning-after-last-weeks-plunge_5uyaixbopt9bovkddtlbs5), published 9 November 2026 - "Last week, the Nikkei 225 gave up 5,855.34 points, marking the largest-ever weekly drop" [Adnkronos](https://www.adnkronos.com/internazionale/akieng/nikkei-rallies-sharply-in-morning-after-last-weeks-plunge_5uyaixbopt9bovkddtlbs5), published 9 November 2026 - "By 10:25 a.m., the Nikkei 225 was down 7.09%" [The Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/11/06/markets/market-nov-6/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Nikkei average closed down 208 yen at 63,081 yen, with a cautious mood due to the upcoming holiday and the US midterm elections" [ダイヤモンド・オンライン](https://diamond.jp/zai/articles/-/1074894), published 2 November 2026 - "The Nikkei average's expected trading range for the day is between 62,000 and 62,800 yen" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/jp/markets/japan/havrvdhqsfjmbcqz55xa5szsve-2026-11-01/), published 1 November 2026 - "Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell as much as 7% on Friday, dropping below 60,000 points for the first time since May" [Financial Times News](https://www.ft.com/content/b77ebe43-a017-4e63-af84-5bdec8f47648), published 6 November 2026 - "Japan's Nikkei 225 index plunged 5.86%, nearing the 20% decline from its peak that signifies a technical bear market" [cnbctv18.com](https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/nikkei-bear-market-asian-markets-crash-ai-selloff-kospi-samsung-sk-hynix-share-price-us-midterms-us-iran-deal-20028433.htm), published 6 November 2026 - "The main index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei, was down almost 5.5% at the opening on Friday" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/el-nikkei-se-hunde-casi-un-55-tras-temores-globales-por-el-sector-de-la-ia/), published 6 November 2026 - "The Nikkei, which groups the 225 most representative stocks in the Japanese market, was down 5.47%, or 3,339.23 points, settling at 57,738.67 units" [infobae](https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/11/06/el-nikkei-se-hunde-casi-un-55-tras-temores-globales-por-el-sector-de-la-ia/), published 6 November 2026 ### Context (5 claims) - "The Nikkei 225's decline tracked heavy losses on Wall Street on Thursday" [The Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/11/06/markets/market-nov-6/), published 6 November 2026 - "The drop in Japan's Nikkei share average followed Democratic wins in the US midterm elections" [Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/japans-nikkei-slumps-5-5-as-market-rout-deepens-on-ai-worries/articleshow/135590552.cms), published 6 November 2026 - "Major companies in the Nikkei 225 Index, including SoftBank, Arm Holdings, and Perplexity AI, are involved in the AI sector and are therefore affected by these developments" [klamm.de](https://www.klamm.de/news/ausblick-auf-den-nikkei-225-index-die-vier-wichtigsten-einflussfaktoren-fuer-japanische-aktien-in-dieser-82n797e483.html), published 2 November 2026 - "The Nikkei 225 Index has fallen 13% from its year-to-date high, reaching 63,290 points after being at 72,768 points in June" [klamm.de](https://www.klamm.de/news/ausblick-auf-den-nikkei-225-index-die-vier-wichtigsten-einflussfaktoren-fuer-japanische-aktien-in-dieser-82n797e483.html), published 2 November 2026 - "The Nikkei 225 Index is under pressure due to uncertainties in the AI sector and upcoming corporate earnings reports" [klamm.de](https://www.klamm.de/news/ausblick-auf-den-nikkei-225-index-die-vier-wichtigsten-einflussfaktoren-fuer-japanische-aktien-in-dieser-82n797e483.html), published 2 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 14 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The description states 'If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket' — this implies a multi-bracket market structure, but the question only asks about a single range (70,000–75,000), making the tie-breaking rule potentially irrelevant or ambiguous for this specific market. - The 'final trading day of December 2026' is not explicitly defined; it depends on the Tokyo Stock Exchange holiday calendar for 2026, which has not yet been officially published. - Yahoo Finance historical data can be subject to retroactive corrections or data discrepancies, which could affect resolution. - The end date in metadata is 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z (UTC), but the final trading day in Japan may be December 30, 2026 or earlier depending on the TSE holiday schedule, creating a potential timezone/date mismatch. - No explicit fallback is defined if Yahoo Finance is unavailable or delisted at resolution time beyond using the last valid on-exchange trade price. ## Publication history - Published 12 November 2026; research dated 12 November 2026. - Published 8 November 2026; research dated 8 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief Compared with research dated 8 November 2026. This revision replaces research dated 8 November 2026 with research dated 12 November 2026. 13 of 24 cited sources are new; 11 are carried over. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.