# Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? 30 dated claims from 20 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 19 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 27 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026-a8685f58 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 27 October 2026 - Research dated: 27 October 2026 - Published: 27 October 2026 - Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026#0x67f3f8d0a0ecdfc008c99650284a4674388a8c3029b0eb7ca0abd65dde8d996f - Venue YES price: 81.3c at 27 October 2026 - Market closes: 1 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. ## The question, as the venue words it Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? ## How this market settles This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive. ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Evidence challenging YES (19 claims) - "Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was cut off by a Manhattan federal judge on Thursday while denying new charges of torturing US citizens" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/10/15/us-news/judge-cuts-off-ex-venezuela-dictator-nicolas-maduros-rambling-nyc-court-speech-rejecting-new-torture-rap/), published 15 October 2026 - "Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were indicted for leading a repression campaign involving the torture of dozens of victims between 2013 and 2026" [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/id/maduro-mengaku-tak-bersalah-atas-dakwaan-penyiksaan/a-79677221), published 16 October 2026 - "Ousted former president of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores de Maduro, pleaded not guilty to new torture charges on Thursday" [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/nicolas-maduro-cilia-flores-not-guilty-plea-torture-charges/), published 15 October 2026 - "Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty to torture charges in a New York court on Thursday, October 15" [Univision](https://www.univision.com/noticias/nicolas-maduro-y-cilia-flores-se-declaran-no-culpables-en-corte-de-nueva-york-video-vertical), published 15 October 2026 - "Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were initially charged with narcoterrorism conspiracy after the US military captured them in a late-night Jan. 3 raid on their presidential compound in Caracas" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/10/15/us-news/judge-cuts-off-ex-venezuela-dictator-nicolas-maduros-rambling-nyc-court-speech-rejecting-new-torture-rap/), published 15 October 2026 - "Federal prosecutors in Manhattan added new charges last week alleging that Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores conspired to torture US citizens jailed in Venezuela" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/10/15/us-news/judge-cuts-off-ex-venezuela-dictator-nicolas-maduros-rambling-nyc-court-speech-rejecting-new-torture-rap/), published 15 October 2026 - "The event took place after American military personnel arrested the then-acting president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, and transported him to the United States" [armenpress.am](https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1262819), published 14 October 2026 - "Foreign news agencies reported that former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who was overthrown, and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared in a New York court on Thursday (October 15, 2026) and pleaded "not guilty to all charges" related to torture, which prosecutors added last week" [www.thairath.co.th](https://www.thairath.co.th/news/foreign/2966483), published 15 October 2026 - "The lifting of sanctions follows the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States" [AL Masry Al Youm](https://www.almasryalyoum.com/news/details/4383368), published 14 October 2026 - "According to prosecutors, after becoming president in 2013, Nicolás Maduro ordered the arrest of a Venezuelan military officer, identified as "Victim-2," who was allegedly shocked with a live electric wire approximately 20 times, struck on his legs, back, and head, hung from his hands and feet, and threatened with death" [www.theepochtimes.com](https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/maduro-pleads-not-guilty-to-new-torture-charge-6104286), published 15 October 2026 - "Nicolás Maduro stated, "I reject this document in its entirety" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/10/15/us-news/judge-cuts-off-ex-venezuela-dictator-nicolas-maduros-rambling-nyc-court-speech-rejecting-new-torture-rap/), published 15 October 2026 - "Nicolás Maduro, speaking through a Spanish interpreter, called the charges "false allegations" and "the sum of concepts and allegations that were already presented" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/10/15/us-news/judge-cuts-off-ex-venezuela-dictator-nicolas-maduros-rambling-nyc-court-speech-rejecting-new-torture-rap/), published 15 October 2026 - "US District Court Judge Alvin Hellerstein interrupted Nicolás Maduro's speech and stated, "A plea of not guilty will be entered on behalf of Mr Maduro" [New York Post](https://nypost.com/2026/10/15/us-news/judge-cuts-off-ex-venezuela-dictator-nicolas-maduros-rambling-nyc-court-speech-rejecting-new-torture-rap/), published 15 October 2026 - "Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared in a New York federal court on the 15th to plead not guilty to new charges of conspiracy to commit torture" [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/japanese/articles/cw7vpr51pm5qo), published 16 October 2026 - "Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, 63, and his wife Cilia Flores, 70, pleaded not guilty on the 15th in a New York federal court to charges of conspiring to torture political opponents" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/jp/world/us/5gwoqclotvlj3m5dylz725xite-2026-10-16/), published 16 October 2026 - "Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife appeared in court in New York again, pleading not guilty to the torture charges added by prosecutors last week" [www.thairath.co.th](https://www.thairath.co.th/news/foreign/2966483), published 15 October 2026 - "Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, appeared before a U.S. court and pleaded not guilty to torture charges brought against them by the prosecution" [سكاي نيوز عربية](https://www.skynewsarabia.com/world/1898543-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%88-%d9%88%d8%b2%d9%88%d8%ac%d8%aa%d9%87-%d8%a3%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%d8%ad%d9%83%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%86%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%84%d8%aa%d9%87%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%b0%d9%8a%d8%a8), published 15 October 2026 - "Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores rejected new charges against them in a federal court in the Southern District of New York" [Oxu.Az](https://oxu.az/ru/v-mire/maduro-i-ego-zhena-otvergli-novye-obvineniya-na-zasedanii-suda-v-nyu-jorke), published 15 October 2026 - "Former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty to new charges in the United States" [ProtoThema](https://www.protothema.gr/world/article/1895609/pieste-tous-sklirotera-athooi-dilosan-o-madouro-ki-i-suzugos-stis-katigories-oti-upevala/), published 15 October 2026 ### Context (11 claims) - "Former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro called the new accusations of torture against him in the US "false"" [SAPO](https://sapo.pt/artigo/maduro-diz-que-novas-acusacoes-de-tortura-sao-falsas-6ad11387ded6b2a5e3cfed99), published 15 October 2026 - "Jorge Rodriguez has led the Venezuelan legislature since 2021" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lifts-sanctions-head-venezuela-legislature-2026-10-14/), published 14 October 2026 - "The United States government suspended sanctions against Jorge Rodríguez, the president of the Venezuelan legislature and brother of interim leader Delcy Rodríguez" [Terra](https://www.terra.com.br/noticias/mundo/eua-suspendem-sancoes-contra-presidente-do-poder-legislativo-da-venezuela,96c54858f7222a8a5e1fa12d5eef8326meu4iq3v.html), published 14 October 2026 - "The United States has removed sanctions against Jorge Jesus Rodriguez Gomez, the head of Venezuela's National Assembly and brother of the country's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/sq/bota/shba-ja-e-heq-kreun-e-asambles%c3%ab-komb%c3%abtare-t%c3%ab-venezuel%c3%abs-nga-lista-e-sanksioneve/4088973), published 14 October 2026 - "In April 2026, the United States lifted the sanctions imposed on the interim president of Venezuela" [armenpress.am](https://armenpress.am/hy/article/1262819), published 14 October 2026 - "Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores declared themselves not guilty of accusations related to alleged acts of torture and repression in Venezuela before a New York court" [Perfil](https://www.perfil.com/noticias/masperfil/nicolas-maduro-ante-la-justicia-de-nueva-york-las-claves-legales-del-juicio-por-represion-y-tortura.phtml), published 15 October 2026 - "Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores have pleaded not guilty to charges brought by the US justice system, including torture" [Gießener Allgemeine](https://www.giessener-allgemeine.de/politik/ehepaar-maduro-plaediert-bei-folter-anklage-auf-unschuldig-zr-94543559.html), published 15 October 2026 - "OFAC's recent actions page for October 14, 2026, lists a 'Venezuela-related Designation Removal' for Jorge Jesús Rodríguez Gómez, with his name variants deleted from the SDN list under the VENEZUELA program tag" [The Rio Times](https://www.riotimesonline.com/us-delists-venezuelas-jorge-rodriguez-ofac/), published 14 October 2026 - "The US has removed Jorge Jesus Rodriguez Gomez, the head of Venezuela's National Assembly, from its sanctions list" [Anadolu Ajansı](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-removes-head-of-venezuelas-national-assembly-from-sanctions-list/4088957), published 14 October 2026 - "The administration of US President Donald Trump has lifted sanctions on Jorge Rodriguez, the head of Venezuela's National Assembly" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lifts-sanctions-head-venezuela-legislature-2026-10-14/), published 14 October 2026 - "Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro appeared before a court in New York City and denied charges against him related to "torture"" [وكالة نيو ترك بوست الاخبارية](https://newturkpost.com/news/128552-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b1%d8%a6%d9%8a%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d9%86%d8%b2%d9%88%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a-%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%88-%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%ab%d9%84-%d8%a3%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%d8%ad%d9%83%d9%85%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%83), published 15 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 20 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The phrase 'officially holds' depends on Venezuelan government clarity, which may be disputed given Venezuela's contested political situation and potential parallel government claims. - The UN protocol list is used as a fallback, but the UN may not always reflect real-time leadership changes or may lag in updates. - In the event of a disputed leadership (e.g., dual-government scenario as seen in 2019), determining 'primary status' could be subjective if no clear distinction is made. - The market end date metadata shows 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z but the resolution time specified in the description is Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET — these are consistent (12 PM ET = 17:00 UTC, but the end date says 04:59 UTC which would be 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, creating a minor discrepancy in the exact resolution moment). - No explicit source hierarchy beyond 'official Venezuelan government information' and UN is defined if those sources conflict with each other or with credible reporting. ## Publication history - Published 27 October 2026; research dated 27 October 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.