# Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? 30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 2 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026-5c70cfb1 - Category: politics - Evidence collected: 2 November 2026 - Research dated: 2 November 2026 - Published: 3 November 2026 - Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026#0xb6abfbc465b88c6085503b3280872545c99c43fc979674bb47b9df1f7c170fd3 - Venue YES price: 25.8c at 2 November 2026 - Market closes: 1 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. **This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.** ## The question, as the venue words it Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? ## How this market settles The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (2 claims) - "The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its primary interest rate between 3.75% and 4% as it assesses inflation and economic indicators" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) held interest rates steady at 3.75-4%" [Seeking Alpha](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4958870-fed-is-done-after-december), published 28 October 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (0 claims) _No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding._ ### Context (28 claims) - "Federal Reserve Governor (Fed) Kevin Warsh emphasized that the artificial intelligence (AI) investment craze is not immune to the effects of interest rates" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/world/2026/10/29/2026102906184894677), published 28 October 2026 - "Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 91% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates on hold, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-holds-gains-ahead-fed-policy-signal-rbnz-decision-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced a change to the FOMC's meeting calendar starting next fall" [https://www.ensondakika.com.tr](https://www.ensondakika.com.tr/fed-baskani-warsh-toplanti-takviminde-degisiklige-gideceklerini-acikladi/729587/), published 28 October 2026 - "Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh plans to attend a November 16 field hearing of the central bank's productivity and jobs task force in the San Francisco Bay Area" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/warsh-attend-fed-jobs-productivity-task-force-hearing-refine-views-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve retains the ability to change monetary policy outside of FOMC meetings, a practice it has used intermittently, most recently in early 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-warsh-announces-changes-how-future-fomc-meetings-will-go-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced that the central bank will designate one of its eight regularly scheduled policy meetings in 2027 and two in 2028 to focus exclusively on major issues facing the institution, rather than monetary policy changes" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-warsh-announces-changes-how-future-fomc-meetings-will-go-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged but signal whether a December rate hike remains a possibility" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-holds-gains-ahead-fed-policy-signal-rbnz-decision-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve's asset holdings increased from under $1 trillion before the 2008 financial crisis to a peak of approximately $9 trillion by the summer of 2022" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-policy-committee-weigh-balance-sheet-issues-early-next-year-warsh-says-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "The Federal Reserve's current asset holdings are around $6.8 trillion, reduced from their peak due to the passive runoff of securities" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-policy-committee-weigh-balance-sheet-issues-early-next-year-warsh-says-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh stated that policymakers will begin considering recommendations from a task force studying balance sheet issues in the new year" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-policy-committee-weigh-balance-sheet-issues-early-next-year-warsh-says-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "Kevin Warsh mentioned that the panel examining the Federal Reserve's asset holdings is actively comparing their insights" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-policy-committee-weigh-balance-sheet-issues-early-next-year-warsh-says-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "Kevin Warsh indicated that the hearing will explore whether AI will make it harder or easier for the Federal Reserve to achieve price stability over the next several years" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/warsh-attend-fed-jobs-productivity-task-force-hearing-refine-views-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rate levels" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "Investors will analyze the official statement and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's press briefing for insights into the central bank's future policy direction and potential rate increases" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "The United States Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a two-day session on Tuesday, October 27, and concluded on Wednesday, October 28" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "Kevin Warsh stated at a press conference, "We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the (Federal Open Market Committee), but in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-warsh-announces-changes-how-future-fomc-meetings-will-go-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "Kevin Warsh believes that large-scale Federal Reserve bond holdings distort markets, a view contested by others" [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-policy-committee-weigh-balance-sheet-issues-early-next-year-warsh-says-2026-10-28/), published 28 October 2026 - "The FOMC, which sets monetary policy and meets eight times annually, is scheduled to release its interest rate determination on Wednesday, October 29" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "Financial markets have assigned a less than 10% probability to a rate increase at this FOMC session, according to CME Group figures" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "Policymakers at the FOMC session will announce their interest rate determination" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "CITIC Securities views the Federal Reserve's December decision and the course of US-Iran diplomacy as the two key variables shaping interest rates and oil prices towards the end of the year" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/the-view-from-china-citic-securities-still-sees-a-25bp-fed-hike-in-december/), published 29 October 2026 - "Chinese brokerage CITIC Securities still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/the-view-from-china-citic-securities-still-sees-a-25bp-fed-hike-in-december/), published 29 October 2026 - "According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of the benchmark interest rate being frozen in October was reflected at 90.6% in the federal funds rate futures market" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261028160651008), published 28 October 2026 - "On October 28th, the day before the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was set to decide on the benchmark interest rate, Treasury bond yields in South Korea all rose" [연합뉴스](https://www.yna.co.kr/view/akr20261028160651008), published 28 October 2026 - "The messaging from the FOMC's policy statement and press conference is expected to influence market movements" [THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES](https://articles.thelocalreport.in/us-fed-meeting-october-2026-date-timing-expectations-and-where-to-watch-kevin-warsh-led-fomc-interest-rate-decision/), published 28 October 2026 - "This decision was based on the Federal Reserve's belief that it could gather more economic and inflation data before implementing another rate increase, which is anticipated in December" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html), published 29 October 2026 - "Federal Reserve officials are expected to resume interest rate increases in December, with the pace of future hikes dependent on economic data" [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates.html), published 29 October 2026 - "According to CITIC Securities, remarks from Federal Reserve officials after the October meeting were milder in tone than in September" [News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive](https://investinglive.com/central-banks/the-view-from-china-citic-securities-still-sees-a-25bp-fed-hike-in-december/), published 29 October 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 8 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 3 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The rounding rule specifies rounding to nearest 25 basis points and away from zero for midpoints, but the actual upper bound is almost always set in exact 25 bps increments by the FOMC, making rounding edge cases unlikely but not impossible. - If the December 2026 FOMC meeting is canceled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond December 31, 2026, the fallback resolution uses the prevailing upper bound at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, which could differ from any new FOMC decision made later. - The end date in metadata is January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC, which corresponds to December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET — consistent with the stated deadline, but timezone interpretation should be confirmed. ## Publication history - Published 3 November 2026; research dated 2 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.