# Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? 30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief. - Canonical page: https://market-claims.com/briefs/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31-7b39f5e1 - Category: economy - Evidence collected: 12 November 2026 - Research dated: 12 November 2026 - Published: 12 November 2026 - Market: Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31#0xc68fea7daba83292fdd7bb704f26d38c4f678cbc2ff69c4175d47c55e74b4321 - Venue YES price: 45.5c at 12 November 2026 - Market closes: 5 January 2027 Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed. The price is the venue's own market price at the snapshot time, shown as context only. It is not an estimate by MarketClaims. ## The question, as the venue words it Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? ## How this market settles This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH valuations, equal to or below for ↓ LOW valuations) the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges in ## Evidence you can inspect _These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes._ ### Evidence supporting YES (1 claim) - "Anthropic's IPO target valuation was expected to exceed $2 trillion (approximately HK$15.6 trillion) according to an investor cited by the Financial Times last month" [即時新聞 instant news](https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f/article/20261111/s00004/1794331045546/anthropic%e4%b8%8a%e5%b8%82%e5%b8%82%e5%80%bc1-4%e8%90%ac%e5%84%84%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83-%e4%bd%8e%e6%97%a9%e5%89%8d%e7%9b%ae%e6%a8%99-%e9%9b%86%e8%b3%875023%e5%84%84), published 10 November 2026 ### Evidence challenging YES (7 claims) - "Previously, Anthropic was projected to have a valuation of around $2 trillion, but this figure has reportedly come down significantly" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 - "This valuation is higher than Anthropic's current valuation of $965 billion but significantly lower than the $2 trillion valuation investors anticipated just a month ago" [First-Class 경제신문 파이낸셜뉴스](https://www.fnnews.com/news/202611071152512300), published 7 November 2026 - "In July 2026, Anthropic was ordered by a US federal judge to pay $1.5 billion in settlements for allegedly using pirated books to train its AI model Claude, a settlement that highlighted Anthropic's practice of destroying physical books for scanning, which they argued was cheaper and legally transformative" [Consumer Rights Wiki](https://consumerrights.wiki/w/anthropic), published 5 November 2026 - "Analysts now believe that Anthropic's valuation may not reach $1.5 trillion and could potentially drop as low as $1 trillion" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 - "At a $1 trillion valuation, Anthropic would be in the same valuation range as blue-chip stocks like Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 - "Anthropic is no longer expected to command a higher valuation than Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX), which had a valuation of around $1.8 trillion when it went public earlier this year" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 - "Artificial intelligence (AI) company Anthropic is expected to go public this month, but its valuation is likely to be lower than previously projected due to uncertainty in the tech sector" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 ### Context (22 claims) - "Competition with OpenAI is another factor that could influence Anthropic's valuation, as OpenAI is currently aiming for a pre-money valuation of $1.25 trillion in its latest funding round, after Anthropic had previously surpassed OpenAI in private funding at a $965 billion valuation in May" [Calcalist כלכליסט](https://www.calcalist.co.il/market/article/s1gka9itfl), published 6 November 2026 - "Anthropic's IPO plans remain in motion, even as market turbulence and a high-profile revelation raise questions about the environment for the company's public offering" [semasocial.com](https://semasocial.com/blog/anthropic-reportedly-plans-to-move-forward-with-ipo-plans-launching-a-major-tech-ipo-would-seem-risky-right-now-shortly-after-one-of-nasdaq-s-biggest-sell-offs-and-amid-revelations-that-a-ceo-central-to-the-ai-boom-had-an-affair-with-a-suspected-chinese-s), published 10 November 2026 - "The author believes that Anthropic's business is not worth a $1 trillion market cap due to fierce competition and a lack of diversification compared to SpaceX, making it a riskier investment" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 - "Previously, the market had projected Anthropic's corporate value to reach up to $2 trillion (approximately 2,678 trillion won)" [한겨레신문](https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/international/globaleconomy/1286709.html), published 10 November 2026 - "Anthropic's management has been discussing appropriate valuations and offering price ranges with representatives from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley" [아주경제](https://www.ajunews.com/view/20261110070053883), published 9 November 2026 - "Anthropic's competitor, OpenAI, recently raised less than half of its initially targeted amount in its funding round, with a valuation of $125 billion, lower than its previous target" [아주경제](https://www.ajunews.com/view/20261110070053883), published 9 November 2026 - "On April 3rd, 2026, Boris Cherny, head of Claude Code, announced on Twitter (now X) that Claude subscriptions would no longer support third-party tools like OpenClaw due to an "outsized strain" on Anthropic's systems" [Consumer Rights Wiki](https://consumerrights.wiki/w/anthropic), published 5 November 2026 - "Between April 24-26, 2026, it was discovered that Anthropic's System Prompt could create dangerous situations for users of Claude Sonnet and Opus, particularly when users discussed suicide and self-harm, as Claude failed to reliably provide appropriate crisis helpline information due to jurisdictional variations in confidentiality and reporting obligations" [Consumer Rights Wiki](https://consumerrights.wiki/w/anthropic), published 5 November 2026 - "In April 2026, a technical flaw in Anthropic's Claude Code, triggered by the string "HERMES.md" in git commit messages, caused users to be charged pay-as-you-go API rates instead of subscription rates, with one account being overcharged by more than $200" [Consumer Rights Wiki](https://consumerrights.wiki/w/anthropic), published 5 November 2026 - "In the third quarter, Anthropic reported $17 billion in revenue, an increase of over 1,100% year over year, but also posted a net loss of more than $23 billion" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 - "Four sources familiar with the matter stated that potential investors in Anthropic's upcoming IPO have expressed doubts about the AI startup's ability to proceed with its scheduled roadshow next week, which would allow for its stock market listing in November" [قناة العربية](https://www.alarabiya.net/aswaq/financial-markets/2026/11/06/%d8%b4%d9%83%d9%88%d9%83-%d8%ad%d9%88%d9%84-%d9%85%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%af-%d8%b7%d8%b1%d8%ad-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%ab%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%83-%d9%85%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%ab%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%8a%d8%b6%d8%ba%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%84%d8%ae%d9%81%d8%b6-%d8%aa%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%8a%d9%85%d9%87%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ba-15-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%b1), published 6 November 2026 - "SpaceX, which turned a profit in its most recent quarter, has a market capitalization of approximately $2 trillion" [NASDAQ Stock Market](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/anthropics-ipo-may-no-longer-value-company-anywhere-near-2-trillion-does-make-it-worth), published 9 November 2026 - "Anthropic's enterprise value was $18.4 billion when the Re-Up 2 Fund acquired its shares, but it was valued at $965 billion in a funding round in May, a 52-fold increase from the acquisition price" [머니투데이](https://www.mt.co.kr/stock/2026/11/10/2026111015494730011), published 10 November 2026 - "Anthropic's revenue surged due to a rapid increase in corporate customers, but the costs of operating AI models also rose sharply" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026110941471), published 9 November 2026 - "In the third quarter of this year, Anthropic's revenue increased by 47% to $16.96 billion, compared to $11.555 billion in the second quarter" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026110941471), published 9 November 2026 - "Anthropic's revenue per dollar of computing cost decreased to approximately $1.72 in the third quarter, down from $2.08 in the second quarter" [인터넷뉴스 한경닷컴](https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026110941471), published 9 November 2026 - "Anthropic's management and advisory board are scheduled to meet within days to discuss the IPO plans" [한겨레신문](https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/finance/1286132.html), published 6 November 2026 - "Following the US midterm elections, stocks related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) have sharply declined, casting doubt on the success of Anthropic's Initial Public Offering (IPO)" [한겨레신문](https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/finance/1286132.html), published 6 November 2026 - "Three major institutional investors planning to participate in the IPO believe there is a high possibility that the valuation will need to be lowered" [한겨레신문](https://www.hani.co.kr/arti/economy/finance/1286132.html), published 6 November 2026 - "Anthropic, the creator of Claude, has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol 'ANT'" [Taiwan News](https://taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/6474582), published 10 November 2026 - "Derek Yan, CFA, Senior Investment Strategist at KraneShares, stated that AGIX aims to identify future investment opportunities similar to Anthropic" [Taiwan News](https://taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/6474582), published 10 November 2026 - "The KraneShares Public-Private AI & Technology ETF (Ticker: AGIX) has seen its private investments, including Anthropic, contribute significantly to its performance since its launch" [Taiwan News](https://taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/6474582), published 10 November 2026 ## What this brief cannot settle This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 12 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief. - The term 'valuation' as measured by NPM Price may differ from commonly reported funding round valuations, creating potential confusion about which valuation metric applies. - The deadline for data publication is 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027 for December 31 trading data, with a grace period until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027, introducing timezone and calendar edge-case ambiguity. - Total outstanding common shares used for public market cap calculation is not defined with a specific source, which could cause disputes if share counts are contested or restated. - Revisions to NPM data are excluded unless 'clearly erroneous' — the threshold for 'clearly erroneous' is subjective and undefined. - The market creation date is not explicitly stated, creating ambiguity about the start of the measurement period. ## Publication history - Published 12 November 2026; research dated 12 November 2026. ## Since the previous brief This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available. --- The same research can be run on any Polymarket or Kalshi market at https://market-claims.com.