The public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
19 published briefs · Page 1 of 2
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Science
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 14 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 28 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 17 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 28 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 27 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Crypto
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 19 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 27 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
30 dated claims from 20 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 19 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 27 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 25 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 18 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 23 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 10 point toward YES and 4 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 23 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 12 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 22 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 14 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 22 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 17 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 22 October 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Republicans control the House after the 2026 midterms?
Control of the US House after the 2026 midterm elections, resolving on which party wins a majority of voting seats. The evidence retained here is commentary and reporting on the parties' respective positions going into the midterms.
Research dated , an older snapshot