The public research desk
Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
19 published briefs ยท Page 2 of 2
-
Politics
Will Friedrich Merz cease to be German Chancellor before 2027?
Resolves Yes if Merz ceases to be Chancellor for any period before 31 December 2026. The evidence here concerns pressures on his chancellorship and his public positioning.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will the Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be signed into law in 2026?
A legislative-process market: the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act must pass both chambers and be signed by 31 December 2026. The evidence assembled here tracks the bill's progress and the positions taken around it. Legislative markets turn on floor time and calendar rather than on public sentiment, and the retrieved evidence speaks more to the former than the latter.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will Mitch McConnell leave the Senate before his term ends?
Resolves Yes if McConnell formally announces an intention to step down, or vacates his seat, before his term ends on 3 January 2027. The evidence here covers his recent Senate activity and reporting on his plans.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
The Los Angeles mayoral election was held on 2 June 2026 with a runoff scheduled for 3 November if no candidate took a majority. The evidence here covers the Raman campaign and the opposition to it.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will Nicolas Maduro still lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Polymarket resolves on whoever officially holds the Venezuelan head-of-state position on 31 December 2026. The evidence gathered here is the most directionally mixed of any brief in the library: reporting on internal and external pressure on Maduro's position alongside reporting on its durability. Read it as a map of what is being reported on both sides, not as a probability.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Brazil 2026 presidential election: what September polling says about a Lula win
Polymarket asks whether Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election on 4 October, second round included. The September Quaest polling collected here runs against the proposition: it puts Flavio Bolsonaro on 42% against Lula in a simulated runoff, a one-point lead inside a two-point margin of error, and records rejection rates of 56% for Bolsonaro and 55% for Lula. Separately, 50% disapprove of the Lula government against 44% who approve. This is one pollster's September readings, not a forecast, and it says nothing about who will win.
Research dated , an older snapshot
-
Politics
Will Maria Corina Machado enter Venezuela before 30 September?
A short-dated market on whether the Venezuelan opposition leader physically enters Venezuelan territory before 30 September. Everything retrieved here is statement of intent rather than confirmed movement: Machado saying she is preparing to return, framing that return as a contribution to a political process, and citing the release of political prisoners and the social and economic situation as her reasons, with Ivan Duque expressing a supporting view. Stated intent is weak evidence for a deadline market, and no claim establishes a date, a route, or any confirmation of entry.
Research dated , an older snapshot