Evidence engine for prediction markets
102K+ articles scanned.
Just today.
MarketClaims monitors online news 24/7 in 20+ languages, extracts verifiable claims with sources, and distills them into a simple, conservative research lean for any Polymarket or Kalshi market. Every call comes with the receipts.
Backed by a 90M+ article archive - 30 months of news, growing by ~100K every day.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
How it works
From raw news to a defensible lean
Four steps. Fully traceable. No black boxes.
Watch
We read the news around the clock.
Our pipeline ingests online news stories 24/7 in 20+ languages - real-time and across recent weeks - so context is never stale.
24/7 · 20+ languages · real-time + recent weeks
Extract
Stories become verifiable claims.
Each story is distilled into discrete, checkable claims, each pinned to its source, publication time, and language.
Claims, with sources attached.
Distill
Claims become a conservative lean.
For any Polymarket or Kalshi market, the evidence is weighed into a simple directional signal - YES lean, NO lean, or insufficient evidence - with a stated confidence.
A conservative research lean - not a tip.
Verify
Every call is scored against reality.
When markets resolve, we compare our lean to the actual outcome and publish the track record. No cherry-picking.
Scored against real outcomes.
Coverage
Watching the questions that matter
Live coverage across every major Polymarket and Kalshi category.
Politics
1,840 markets
218,400 sources found
Geopolitics
1,310 markets
196,500 sources found
Macro
980 markets
142,600 sources found
Crypto
910 markets
119,800 sources found
Tech & AI
820 markets
134,200 sources found
Regulation
640 markets
78,900 sources found
Economy
1,120 markets
173,400 sources found
Energy
560 markets
71,200 sources found
Example report
Every call comes with the receipts
Inspect the lean. Drill into every claim, then into every source behind it.
Report preview
Will the G7 finance ministers endorse the new framework this quarter?
Cross-language coverage from primary outlets converges on a YES lean: two G7 ministers have publicly endorsed the framework, market-microstructure data shows thickening depth at the implied price tier, and the only counter-evidence is a single regional outlier survey.
Claims - select one to drill down
Claim drill-down
Two G7 finance ministers publicly endorsed the framework this week.
Sources
Accountability
We keep score - publicly
When a market resolves, our lean is graded against the real outcome. Hits and misses, all of them.
| Market | Our lean | Outcome | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECB cut in June? | NO lean (Med.) | NO | ✓ |
| Bill passes before recess? | YES lean (High) | YES | ✓ |
| Ceasefire by May 31? | YES lean (Low) | NO | ✗ |
A research lean is not a prophecy. We publish confidence with every call and grade ourselves anyway - because a track record you can audit beats a promise you can't.
FAQ
Questions, answered plainly
Is this financial advice?
No. MarketClaims is a research tool. Our leans are evidence summaries, not recommendations to trade. We place no trades and hold no funds.
What exactly is a “claim”?
A discrete, checkable statement extracted from a news story - pinned to its source, publication time, and language - that bears on a market's resolution criteria.
Where does the evidence come from?
Online news coverage monitored 24/7 in 20+ languages, spanning real-time stories and recent-weeks context. Every claim links to its source.
Why is the signal “conservative”?
When evidence is thin or conflicting, we say so - the verdict can be “insufficient evidence.” We'd rather abstain than overreach.
How do I know the track record is honest?
Calls are timestamped before resolution and graded against actual outcomes - hits and misses both published.
Do you connect to wallets or exchange accounts?
No. There is nothing to connect. MarketClaims is read-only research - it holds no funds and connects to no wallets.
Which markets are supported?
Polymarket and Kalshi markets; paste a market URL or browse by category.
Will this make me money?
We don't promise that, and you should be wary of anyone who does. We promise sourced evidence and an honest scorecard.
The news never sleeps. Neither does your research.
Pick a market. Read the evidence. Decide for yourself.