Track record
Every call is graded. Here are the rules.
A research lean you can’t audit is just an opinion. This page documents exactly how MarketClaims scores itself - so when you see our numbers, you know what they mean.
Rule 1
Timestamped before resolution.
A lean only counts if it was recorded while the market was still open. Calls made or revised after the outcome is knowable are excluded from the record.
Rule 2
Graded against the actual resolution.
When a market resolves, the recorded lean is compared to the resolved outcome. A YES lean on a market that resolves YES is a hit; on NO, a miss. No partial credit, no re-litigating the resolution.
Rule 3
Abstentions are reported, not hidden.
“Insufficient evidence” verdicts are counted and published separately. They are neither hits nor misses - but the rate is public, because a system that abstains constantly isn’t useful, and one that never abstains isn’t honest.
Rule 4
Hits and misses both stay published.
The record is append-only. Misses are not removed, reweighted, or footnoted away. Confidence levels are recorded with each call so calibration can be checked, not just accuracy.
The live, graded record for monitored markets is available inside the app. During private beta the sample is small - read it as an early signal, not a statistical guarantee. Past performance does not predict future results.
See the record for yourself.
Sign in to browse graded calls across monitored categories.
Explore MarketClaimsResearch only. Not financial advice.