Use case · Macro & central-bank research

Central banks speak carefully. We read carefully.

Rate decisions, inflation prints, official-speak parsing - macro markets turn on precise wording reported across Reuters, Nikkei, Handelsblatt, and dozens more. MarketClaims tracks the wording, not the vibes.

The problem

Macro narratives drift far from primary sources.

By the time a Fed minute reaches your feed, it has passed through three layers of interpretation. Markets on rate decisions resolve on what officials actually said and did - not on the takes.

What we do

Primary-source claims, time-stamped and multilingual.

We extract claims directly from coverage of official communications - FOMC minutes, ECB pressers, BoJ statements - in their original languages, each pinned to outlet and publication time.

What you get

A conservative lean with stated confidence.

When the evidence supports a direction, we say so with a confidence level. When officials are genuinely ambiguous, we say that instead. Both get graded when the market resolves.

Questions this research answers

Did the latest FOMC minutes shift the probability of a cut?

What did the ECB actually say versus what headlines claim?

Is the inflation print consistent with the market's implied path?

Pick a market. Read the evidence.

Paste a Polymarket URL or browse by category - every report shows its sources.

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Research only. Not financial advice.