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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Economy brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

What the evidence does

3
Toward yes
0
Against yes
27
Context

10 publishers5 Nov to 11 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is

What could still go wrong

  • The market title says 'Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation' but does not specify which outcome is YES and which is NO — it is implied YES = Anthropic higher, but this must be inferred from context
  • December 31, 2026 may not be a trading day (it falls on a Wednesday in 2026, so likely is a trading day, but NPM publication schedule depends on their calendar)
  • 'Final NPM Price' is defined as the price updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day, creating a potential timezone/date mismatch for December 31 data published January 1
  • If NPM ceases coverage, resolution falls back to 'latest available data' which introduces ambiguity about timeliness and comparability
  • The 50-50 resolution clause for equal valuations creates a scenario not cleanly captured by binary YES/NO
  • Revisions to NPM data are excluded unless 'clearly erroneous' — 'clearly erroneous' is subjective and undefined
  • Total outstanding shares for public market cap calculation is not pinned to a specific filing or date, leaving room for interpretation

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 3 claims

  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Toward yes

    Anthropic is preparing for its initial public offering (IPO) with an expected valuation of around $1.33 trillion

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationBloomberg Líneapublished
    Toward yes

    Acciones tecnológicas repuntan y Wall Street recupera terreno ante el optimismo por la IA. Las acciones tecnológicas recuperaron terreno tras la reciente caída, impulsadas por las perspectivas de CoreWeave, los ingresos de OpenAI y la fuerte demanda por la OPI de Anthropic. Bloomberg -- Un repunte en las acciones de los gigantes tecnológicos impulsó al alza las cotizaciones ante la espec

    Bloomberg Línea published
  • Toward yes

    Anthropicov izlazak na burzu: deset pitanja na koja ulagači (i svi ostali) traže odgovor. Tvrtka koja stoji iza Claudea počela je ulagačima predstavljati inicijalnu javnu ponudu dionica pod oznakom ANT na Nasdaqu. Tko će se na tome obogatiti, hoće li Claude poskupjeti i što ako tvrtka odluči zakočiti vlastiti razvoj? Kad je Anthropic 2021. osnovala skupina bivših OpenAI-jevih istraživač

    bug.hr published

Evidence challenging YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Context 27 claims

  • Context

    Anthropic is the company that created the chatbot Claude

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationHandelsblattpublished
    Context

    Anthropic: Banken wollen wohl IPO-Bewertung auf 1,5 Billionen Dollar erhöhen

    Handelsblatt published
  • Context

    Η Anthropic ετοιμάζει IPO με αποτίμηση 1,5 τρισ. δολαρίων

    Euro2day published
  • Context

    Kevin Mahn raised the question of whether OpenAI can offer additional products on top of its base offering, similar to how Coca-Cola offers various sodas, compared to Anthropic's sparkling water base

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Turney Duff proposed an analogy comparing Anthropic to Coca-Cola and OpenAI to Pepsi

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Kevin Mahn proposed a new analogy: OpenAI is like being offered a glass of water, while Anthropic is like being asked if you want sparkling water

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Kevin Mahn questioned whether customers are willing to pay a premium for sparkling water (Anthropic) over regular water (OpenAI)

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Kevin Mahn disagreed with Turney Duff's analogy, stating that OpenAI has significant consumer access and distribution capabilities, especially with their personal agent technology

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Kevin Mahn noted that OpenAI's enterprise business is reportedly larger than its consumer business

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationwww.24chasa.bgpublished
    Context

    The startup company Anthropic is preparing to go public on the stock market, despite warnings about artificial intelligence

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationwww.24chasa.bgpublished
    Context

    Anthropic is valued at $1.3 trillion

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationwww.24chasa.bgpublished
    Context

    This would value Anthropic between $1.1 trillion and $1.3 trillion, which is below the $2 trillion foreseen by some investors in the summer, according to the Financial Times

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationwww.24chasa.bgpublished
    Context

    The huge valuation comes despite the company's warning last month that artificial intelligence could pose 'catastrophic or existential risks to humanity'

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationwww.24chasa.bgpublished
    Context

    In its latest financial results for the six months ending June, Anthropic's revenue jumped to $16.2 billion from $1.1 billion in the same period last year

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationwww.24chasa.bgpublished
    Context

    Fiona Cincota, a senior market analyst at City Index, stated that the $64 billion Anthropic aims to raise is 'quite optimistic' given its 'volatility and concerns about artificial intelligence that we have seen particularly in the last week'

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Context

    The estimated price range for each Anthropic share in the IPO is between $70 and $78

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Context

    Anthropic intends to sell 801.35 million Class A ordinary shares, with selling shareholders offering an additional 23.65 million Class A ordinary shares

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Context

    Underwriters have the option to purchase up to 123.75 million additional Anthropic shares at the IPO price

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Context

    Anthropic has an agreement with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom, Google, Micron Technology, Microsoft Corporation, Nvidia Corporation, and TSMC Partners to acquire $26 billion worth of Class N ordinary shares through a private placement

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Context

    The proforma capitalization of Anthropic, at the maximum price of $78 per share, is estimated to be around $1.02 trillion

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Context

    Anthropic reported net losses of $104.039 million in the first nine months of the year, a 314.4% increase compared to the previous year

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationwww.24chasa.bgpublished
    Context

    The company, which is currently reporting losses, will offer its shares at a price between $70 and $78 per share and will raise up to $64 billion in its initial public offering this month, according to the BBC

    www.24chasa.bg published
  • Source publicationFaro de Vigopublished
    Context

    The IPO aims to raise between $57.75 billion and $64.35 billion by selling 825 million shares

    Faro de Vigo published
  • Source publicationSvD.sepublished
    Context

    Banker vill pressa upp Anthropic-kursen

    SvD.se published
  • Context

    Anthropic sale a bolsa en plenas rebajas (y es una buena noticia)

    El Confidencial published
  • Context

    Invertir en la salida a bolsa de Anthropic: ¿una montaña rusa asegurada?

    LaVanguardia published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Kevin Mahn explained that large language model companies typically release their smartest and most expensive models first, followed by cheaper versions with slightly less capability

    Yahoo! Finance published

Who reported it 10 publishers, each setting its own name

  • Faro de Vigo 8
  • www.24chasa.bg 8
  • Yahoo! Finance 7
  • Bloomberg Línea 1
  • bug.hr 1
  • El Confidencial 1
  • Euro2day 1
  • Handelsblatt 1
  • LaVanguardia 1
  • SvD.se 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 10 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 7 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (1 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated

This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available.

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