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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?

30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Politics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

What the evidence does

0
Toward yes
11
Against yes
19
Context

10 publishers8 Nov to 9 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

On October 8, an agreement on an initial ceasefire (Phase 1) was announced, constituting a halt in fighting, a partial Israeli pullback to a “yellow line,” prisoner swaps, expanded aid, and the release of hostages. A second phase of the deal, yet to be negotiated, is expected to address further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and the establishment of new security and governance arrangements in Gaza. This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement for the second phase of the Israel–Hamas ceasefire, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. For purposes of this market, a “second phase” ceasefire agreement refers to a deal publicly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas (directly or via recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar) that goes beyond the Phase 1 initial truce and includes commitments towards a comprehensive or “full” ceasefire. Any agreement that is publicly described by the parties, or by mediators on their behalf, as the completion of “Phase 2” of the ceasefire will qualify, regardless of whether it includes further Israeli withdrawals beyond the “yellow line,” or agreements by Hamas to disarm. An extension or continuation of the Phase 1 arrangement alone will not qualify. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting will also qualify.

What could still go wrong

  • 'Wide consensus of credible media reporting' is subjective and undefined — no specific number or list of qualifying outlets is given
  • The description references 'October 8' as the Phase 1 announcement date but does not specify the year, creating minor ambiguity about which ceasefire cycle this refers to
  • 'Commitments towards a comprehensive or full ceasefire' is vague — a deal with minimal commitments could be disputed as qualifying
  • The resolution date end time is specified as December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET but the market end date in metadata is January 1, 2027 04:59 UTC — these are equivalent but the dual specification could cause confusion
  • No explicit definition of 'recognized mediators' beyond U.S., Egypt, Qatar — other potential mediators (e.g., UN, Turkey) are not addressed
  • Whether a unilateral declaration by one side that it considers Phase 2 complete would qualify is not fully addressed beyond the 'mutual acknowledgment' requirement

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Evidence challenging YES 11 claims

  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Against yes

    Hamas stated that the catastrophic damage caused by the weather, including the flooding of displacement camps and residential neighborhoods and damage to buildings, was a direct result of the ongoing Israeli blockade and the failure to implement the humanitarian protocol stipulated in the ceasefire agreement

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Against yes

    Hamas criticized the positions taken by the so-called "Board of Peace" and its executive director, Nikolay Mladenov, toward Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement, arguing that these positions provide cover for the continuation of such violations

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Against yes

    Hamas held the Israeli occupation and the Peace Council responsible for the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip, criticizing the Peace Council's "lukewarm positions" and its executive director, Nikolay Mladenov, regarding the occupation's violations of the ceasefire agreement

    العربي الجديد published
  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Against yes

    Hamas holds the Israeli occupation and the so-called "Board of Peace" responsible for Gaza's worsening winter crisis

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Source publicationشبكة الميادينpublished
    Against yes

    Hamas criticized the positions of the "Peace Council" and its executive director, Nikolay Mladenov, regarding Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement, considering these positions to provide cover for continued violations

    شبكة الميادين published
  • Source publicationشبكة الميادينpublished
    Against yes

    Hamas stated that the catastrophic damage caused by the low-pressure system, including the flooding of refugee camps and residential areas and damage to buildings, is a direct result of the ongoing Israeli blockade and the failure to implement the humanitarian protocol stipulated in the ceasefire agreement

    شبكة الميادين published
  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Against yes

    Hamas stressed that the onset of winter has further aggravated the suffering of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians enduring harsh humanitarian conditions inside shelters and damaged tents

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Source publicationmaariv.co.ilpublished
    Against yes

    A security official claims that Hamas is trying to pressure Israel to advance the reconstruction of Gaza before the organization is disarmed

    maariv.co.il published
  • Against yes

    The Palestinian Authority and Hamas movement hold the Israeli occupation responsible for the worsening humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip

    عربي21 published
  • Source publicationشبكة الميادينpublished
    Against yes

    Hamas holds the Israeli occupation and the "Peace Council" responsible for the worsening humanitarian catastrophe in the Gaza Strip

    شبكة الميادين published
  • Source publicationmaariv.co.ilpublished
    Against yes

    A security official said, "Hamas is trying through this campaign to pressure Israel to advance the reconstruction process of the Strip before the organization is disarmed. We are already in the third winter, the images that Hamas is trying to market to the world are not new. This time we came prepared to repel Hamas's narrative

    maariv.co.il published

Context 19 claims

  • Context

    Hamas claimed that the flooding is a result of Israel's blockade and the non-implementation of humanitarian clauses in the ceasefire agreement

    Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası published
  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Context

    Hamas called on mediators and guarantors to pressure the Israeli occupation to lift its restrictions on the entry of the National Committee into the Gaza Strip

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Context

    Hamas called on the board to assume its responsibilities and take action to halt the deterioration of humanitarian conditions in the Strip, urging it to take serious measures to compel the Israeli occupation to fulfill its obligations

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Context

    Hamas urged mediators and guarantors to play a more effective role in ensuring the full implementation of the humanitarian protocol and facilitating the flow of aid, shelter supplies, and relief materials into Gaza

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Source publicationHaberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postasıpublished
    Context

    Hamas stated that severe rainfall and a storm in Gaza have impacted displaced people, holding Israel and the Peace Kurulu (Peace Committee) responsible for shelter aid

    Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası published
  • Source publicationAnadolu Ajansıpublished
    Context

    Hamas stated that Israel bears full responsibility for the collapse of a sand cliff on tents of displaced people in Gaza

    Anadolu Ajansı published
  • Source publicationAnadolu Ajansıpublished
    Context

    Hamas attributes the incident to Israel's "criminal policies" in the Gaza Strip, including the ongoing blockade and prevention of entry for shelter supplies and home repair materials

    Anadolu Ajansı published
  • Context

    The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) holds the Israeli occupation fully responsible for the disaster of a sand cliff collapsing on the tents of displaced people in the city of Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip

    وكالة الصحافة الفلسطينية published
  • Context

    Hamas is attempting to turn the winter in the Gaza Strip into a tool for exerting international pressure on Israel, similar to the "hunger campaign" the organization previously waged

    mako published
  • Context

    Israel and Hamas had previously agreed to Trump's 20-point plan, which led to the end of the war in Gaza and the release of hostages

    ProtoThema published
  • Context

    In a counter-publicity campaign against Hamas's efforts, Israel is presenting data on the entry of winter equipment into the Gaza Strip

    maariv.co.il published
  • Source publicationmaariv.co.ilpublished
    Context

    Israel is preparing for an international winter campaign by Hamas focused on living conditions in Gaza

    maariv.co.il published
  • Source publicationHaberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postasıpublished
    Context

    Hamas alleged that Israel is preventing the entry of shelter and humanitarian aid materials

    Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası published
  • Source publicationHaberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postasıpublished
    Context

    Hamas argued that Israel's actions are deepening the humanitarian crisis in the region

    Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası published
  • Source publicationAl Mayadeen Englishpublished
    Context

    Al Mayadeen's correspondent in Gaza reported that heavy rainfall flooded Palestinians' tents, with rainwater mixing with sewage and increasing the risk of disease outbreaks

    Al Mayadeen English published
  • Source publicationmakopublished
    Context

    Security officials fear that Hamas will succeed in recreating the international pressure it exerted on Israel through a "hunger campaign

    mako published
  • Source publicationmaariv.co.ilpublished
    Context

    Hamas is attempting to leverage the third winter of the war to lead a winter campaign against Israel

    maariv.co.il published
  • Source publicationProtoThemapublished
    Context

    After the elections, Donald Trump wants to move forward with his plan for the Gaza Strip, regardless of the composition of the Israeli government

    ProtoThema published
  • Source publicationالعربي الجديدpublished
    Context

    U.S. President Donald Trump informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a phone call on Thursday of his desire to take steps to implement his peace plan for Gaza, according to the Axios website, which cited two sources familiar with the matter

    العربي الجديد published

Who reported it 10 publishers, each setting its own name

  • Al Mayadeen English 8
  • maariv.co.il 5
  • Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası 4
  • شبكة الميادين 3
  • Anadolu Ajansı 2
  • mako 2
  • ProtoThema 2
  • العربي الجديد 2
  • عربي21 1
  • وكالة الصحافة الفلسطينية 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 10 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 6 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (1 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated

This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available.

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