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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026? (Above 10)

30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 14 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Politics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

What the evidence does

0
Toward yes
16
Against yes
14
Context

12 publishers7 Oct to 8 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Nov 16, 2026 to Nov 22, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

What could still go wrong

  • The description says 'above 10' while the title says 'more than 10' — these are consistent but the boundary value of exactly 10 resolves NO, which should be confirmed.
  • No explicit clarification of timezone used to define a 'single day' in IMF PortWatch data, which could affect day boundaries.
  • The resolution window note ('no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period') is procedural but does not define what happens if IMF PortWatch data is delayed or revised after resolution.

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Evidence challenging YES 16 claims

  • Source publicationapokalypsnu.compublished
    Against yes

    Iran claims it retains full control of the Strait of Hormuz

    apokalypsnu.com published
  • Against yes

    Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy shipping route, has been severely disrupted since late February, leading to a significant increase in global fuel prices

    VietNamNet News published
  • Source publicationapokalypsnu.compublished
    Against yes

    Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February

    apokalypsnu.com published
  • Source publicationapokalypsnu.compublished
    Against yes

    Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "illegal"

    apokalypsnu.com published
  • Against yes

    Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz decreased this week after Iran threatened to retaliate against any new American attacks, amid warnings that the Gulf region's energy infrastructure is at risk

    S A N A published
  • Source publicationVietNamNet Newspublished
    Against yes

    Iran has threatened to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran deems 'illegal', asserting full control over the strategic waterway despite US claims to the contrary

    VietNamNet News published
  • Against yes

    Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated on Wednesday that shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran considers illegal, are expected to be closed soon

    Syri | Lajmi i fundit published
  • Against yes

    Iran threatens to tighten the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and close additional shipping lanes used by ships to bypass the blockade it imposed on the region

    mako published
  • Source publicationmakopublished
    Against yes

    Iran announced its intention to soon 'close' shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz that it defines as illegal, primarily the southern route near the coast of Oman

    mako published
  • Against yes

    Mohammadreza Naqdi stated, 'The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran have full control over it

    Baird Maritime published
  • Source publicationBaird Maritimepublished
    Against yes

    An adviser to the Revolutionary Guards' Commander told the semi-official Fars News Agency on Wednesday that transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz deemed illegal by Iran will soon be closed

    Baird Maritime published
  • Against yes

    An advisor to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard stated that 'illegal' shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz will be closed soon

    AL Masry Al Youm published
  • Source publicationВзглядpublished
    Against yes

    Mohammad Reza Naghdi, an advisor to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that Iran will block "illegal shipping routes" in the Strait of Hormuz

    Взгляд published
  • Source publicationВзглядpublished
    Against yes

    Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, has nearly halted due to the conflict between Iran and the USA, leading to increased fuel prices globally

    Взгляд published
  • Against yes

    Kepler, a company specializing in commodity and energy market data, reported on September 29 that Gulf region crude oil and condensate exports are at least 16.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to pre-war averages, excluding Iran, but only 60% of these exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz

    عربي21 published
  • Source publicationS A N Apublished
    Against yes

    According to Reuters, citing data from the company Kepler, the number of cargo ships that passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday decreased to seven, compared to eight the previous day

    S A N A published

Context 14 claims

  • Source publicationapokalypsnu.compublished
    Context

    The US claims the Strait of Hormuz is open

    apokalypsnu.com published
  • Source publicationapokalypsnu.compublished
    Context

    The US claims that Iran has "lost complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz

    apokalypsnu.com published
  • Context

    Iran has directly stated that the United States must withdraw from the Middle East for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened

    Sarkarnama News published
  • Source publicationSarkarnama Newspublished
    Context

    The risk of attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz persists

    Sarkarnama News published
  • Source publicationapokalypsnu.compublished
    Context

    The Strait of Hormuz normally carries around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments

    apokalypsnu.com published
  • Source publicationSarkarnama Newspublished
    Context

    The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for the large-scale transport of oil and natural gas exiting the Persian Gulf

    Sarkarnama News published
  • Source publicationVietNamNet Newspublished
    Context

    US President Donald Trump claimed that Washington's forces are assisting oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping volumes increasing to over 20 million barrels per day

    VietNamNet News published
  • Source publicationSarkarnama Newspublished
    Context

    Uncertainty in supply could lead to fluctuations in crude oil prices, potentially increasing India's fuel import costs

    Sarkarnama News published
  • Source publicationSarkarnama Newspublished
    Context

    Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, attacked the presidential palace in Aden, Yemen, resulting in the deaths and injuries of security personnel

    Sarkarnama News published
  • Source publicationSarkarnama Newspublished
    Context

    An Iranian military spokesperson warned that if the United States does not withdraw from the region, it will be expelled

    Sarkarnama News published
  • Source publicationSarkarnama Newspublished
    Context

    These developments have raised concerns about security in the Middle East and could impact the global oil market

    Sarkarnama News published
  • Context

    The United States is pressuring the Iraqi government to close most of its border crossings with Iran

    Portal do Holanda published
  • Source publicationSiasat Daily - Urdupublished
    Context

    The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is open for maritime traffic and denied statements by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps about closing it, asserting that Tehran has no control over this strategic sea lane

    Siasat Daily - Urdu published
  • Source publicationSiasat Daily - Urdupublished
    Context

    CENTCOM stated in exclusive remarks to Al Arabiya that U.S. forces are present in the Strait of Hormuz area and are providing necessary protection to commercial vessels as part of their efforts to ensure the continuity of maritime traffic and the flow of global energy supplies

    Siasat Daily - Urdu published

Who reported it 12 publishers, each setting its own name

  • Sarkarnama News 7
  • apokalypsnu.com 6
  • VietNamNet News 3
  • Baird Maritime 2
  • mako 2
  • S A N A 2
  • Siasat Daily - Urdu 2
  • Взгляд 2
  • AL Masry Al Youm 1
  • Portal do Holanda 1
  • Syri | Lajmi i fundit 1
  • عربي21 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 12 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 3 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (1 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated

This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available.

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