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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Geopolitics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

0
Toward yes
7
Against yes
23
Context

8 publishers24 Oct to 3 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

What could still go wrong

  • The market title says 'December 31' but the end date is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, creating ambiguity about which year's December 31 is meant — the market could span multiple years or refer to a specific year not explicitly stated in the title
  • No specific year is mentioned in the market question title, making the target date unclear
  • 'Consensus of credible reporting' is subjective and undefined — no specific outlets or threshold for consensus are specified
  • The title refers to Mojtaba Khamenei as 'Supreme Leader of Iran' which is currently his father Ali Khamenei's title — this could create ambiguity if the market was created anticipating a succession or if there is a naming/title confusion
  • 'Authentic' is not operationally defined beyond excluding listed categories, leaving room for dispute in edge cases
  • Timezone boundary for 'December 31 ET' vs UTC end date (2027-01-01T04:59:00Z) may create edge-case disputes for content released near midnight ET

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Evidence challenging YES 7 claims

  • Against yes

    Iran's judiciary chief met with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared in public since his appointment

    Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля published
  • Source publicationDH.bepublished
    Against yes

    Mojtaba Khamenei has not yet appeared in public since coming to power

    DH.be published
  • Source publicationClarinpublished
    Against yes

    Mojtaba Khamenei has not yet appeared in public since his designation

    Clarin published
  • Source publicationdnews.grpublished
    Against yes

    Mojtaba Khamenei has not made any public appearances since taking office, and his communication with citizens is exclusively through written messages

    dnews.gr published
  • Source publicationO Povopublished
    Against yes

    Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public since his appointment

    O Povo published
  • Source publicationCursorinfo: главные новости Израиляpublished
    Against yes

    The new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has still not appeared in public, and the circumstances of the negotiations have not been disclosed

    Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля published
  • Source publicationiranwire.compublished
    Against yes

    The publication of these reports continues at a time when no new images or audio files of Mojtaba Khamenei have been released since the start of the war on March 1st, 2023

    iranwire.com published

Context 23 claims

  • Source publicationClarinpublished
    Context

    Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen in March to succeed his father, the late leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    Clarin published
  • Source publicationRed El Mayadeenpublished
    Context

    Tehran has warned that it will respond with multiplied force to a new attack

    Red El Mayadeen published
  • Source publicationRed El Mayadeenpublished
    Context

    Previously, the Leader of the Revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran, Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that the Armed Forces and the people will determine the timing and conditions for the end of a war if enemies undertake new aggressions against the country

    Red El Mayadeen published
  • Source publicationRed El Mayadeenpublished
    Context

    The IRGC announced the implementation of recent directives from the Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Armed Forces, Sayyed Mojtaba Khamenei

    Red El Mayadeen published
  • Source publicationDH.bepublished
    Context

    During the meeting, Mojtaba Khamenei and Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeï discussed the protection of public rights, the effective fight against corruption, and compensation for material and moral damages resulting from crimes committed by American-Zionist criminals

    DH.be published
  • Context

    This meeting is one of the few public meetings of Mojtaba Khamenei since he took leadership of Iran in March, succeeding his father, Ali Khamenei

    dnews.gr published
  • Source publicationiranwire.compublished
    Context

    The Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported on Saturday, November 2nd, about a meeting between Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of the judiciary, and Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic

    iranwire.com published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and Mojtaba Khamenei discussed securing public rights and combating corruption

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationRed El Mayadeenpublished
    Context

    The IRGC stated that national support for the Armed Forces is a 'strategic pillar' against foreign hostility towards Iran and its agents

    Red El Mayadeen published
  • Source publicationdnews.grpublished
    Context

    Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met with the head of the Iranian Judiciary, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, according to a statement from the country's judicial authorities on Saturday (October 24)

    dnews.gr published
  • Source publicationDH.bepublished
    Context

    The Iranian judiciary announced on Saturday that its chief, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeï, had a rare meeting with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei

    DH.be published
  • Source publicationCursorinfo: главные новости Израиляpublished
    Context

    The Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, met with the head of the country's judicial system, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei

    Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля published
  • Source publicationClarinpublished
    Context

    The Iranian judiciary reported that its chief, Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, held an unusual meeting with the country's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei

    Clarin published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Mojtaba Khamenei and Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei held talks on pursuing recovery of rights and compensation for damages from 'American-Zionist criminals'

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly met with Mojtaba Khamenei earlier this week to discuss 'the latest developments' in the war

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Iran's judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei held a rare meeting with the country's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationRed El Mayadeenpublished
    Context

    The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran is implementing new military directives and enhancing its combat readiness

    Red El Mayadeen published
  • Source publicationDH.bepublished
    Context

    Mojtaba Khamenei was injured during the attack that killed his father and other officials, with health authorities describing the injuries as superficial

    DH.be published
  • Source publicationDH.bepublished
    Context

    Iranian chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also met with Mojtaba Khamenei earlier this week to discuss the latest developments related to the war with the United States

    DH.be published
  • Source publicationDH.bepublished
    Context

    Mojtaba Khamenei was designated in March to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

    DH.be published
  • Source publicationO Povopublished
    Context

    The Iranian Judiciary reported on Saturday (24th) that its chief, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, held an unusual meeting with the country's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei

    O Povo published
  • Source publicationCursorinfo: главные новости Израиляpublished
    Context

    Mojtaba Khamenei and Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei paid special attention to restoring rights and compensating for material and moral damage, which the Iranian side claims was caused by the actions of the United States and Israel

    Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля published
  • Source publicationCursorinfo: главные новости Израиляpublished
    Context

    Mojtaba Khamenei took over leadership of Iran in March, succeeding his father Ali Khamenei, who died as a result of US-Israeli strikes on Tehran at the beginning of the war in the Middle East

    Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля published

Who reported it 8 publishers, each setting its own name

  • DH.be 6
  • Cursorinfo: главные новости Израиля 5
  • Red El Mayadeen 5
  • The Times of Israel 4
  • Clarin 3
  • dnews.gr 3
  • iranwire.com 2
  • O Povo 2

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 8 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 6 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (2 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated
  2. Published · research dated

Compared with research dated

This revision replaces research dated 28 October 2026 with research dated 8 November 2026. 9 of 15 cited sources are new; 6 are carried over.

More published research