MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Politics research briefs
134 published politics briefs, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
134 published briefs · Page 12 of 12
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Politics
Brazil 2026 presidential election: what September polling says about a Lula win
Polymarket asks whether Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election on 4 October, second round included. The September Quaest polling collected here runs against the proposition: it puts Flavio Bolsonaro on 42% against Lula in a simulated runoff, a one-point lead inside a two-point margin of error, and records rejection rates of 56% for Bolsonaro and 55% for Lula. Separately, 50% disapprove of the Lula government against 44% who approve. This is one pollster's September readings, not a forecast, and it says nothing about who will win.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Maria Corina Machado enter Venezuela before 30 September?
A short-dated market on whether the Venezuelan opposition leader physically enters Venezuelan territory before 30 September. Everything retrieved here is statement of intent rather than confirmed movement: Machado saying she is preparing to return, framing that return as a contribution to a political process, and citing the release of political prisoners and the social and economic situation as her reasons, with Ivan Duque expressing a supporting view. Stated intent is weak evidence for a deadline market, and no claim establishes a date, a route, or any confirmation of entry.
Research dated , an older snapshot