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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Venezuela election scheduled by March 31, 2027?

30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Geopolitics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

6
Toward yes
0
Against yes
24
Context

8 publishers29 Oct to 2 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030. This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What could still go wrong

  • 'Next Venezuelan presidential election' is ambiguous — it is unclear whether this refers to a regularly scheduled election, a snap election, or any officially called presidential election
  • 'Scheduled' is not precisely defined — it is unclear whether a formal decree, an announcement by the electoral authority (CNE), or a government statement suffices
  • The term 'before 2030' is ambiguous regarding whether January 1, 2030 itself qualifies or only dates strictly before that year
  • Resolution relies on 'consensus of credible reporting' which is subjective and lacks a defined threshold or list of qualifying outlets
  • Timezone handling: market end date is 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z which corresponds to 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027 — consistent but worth noting for daylight saving time accuracy

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 6 claims

  • Toward yes

    Interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez stated her intention to hold elections during a recent address

    semafor.com published
  • Toward yes

    Venezuela may be on the verge of a political breakthrough, as interim president Delcy Rodriguez has announced readiness to hold early presidential elections

    rmf24.pl published
  • Source publicationrmf24.plpublished
    Toward yes

    On Thursday, Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced readiness to organize early presidential elections

    rmf24.pl published
  • Source publicationHaberlerpublished
    Toward yes

    Venezuela's Interim President Delcy Rodriguez announced that steps will be taken to return state assets, implement a four-phase salary increase in 2027, and renew the electoral system

    Haberler published
  • Source publicationHaberlerpublished
    Toward yes

    Rodriguez stated, "I do not ask those who disagree with me to change their minds. I only ask them to evaluate based on facts and the steps taken. Less fighting, more solutions. We are in such a transformation process. Nothing built so far will be destroyed. All elections mandated by our Constitution will be organized by a renewed electoral authority and will take place in the presence of the whole world

    Haberler published
  • Source publicationHaberlerpublished
    Toward yes

    Rodriguez announced that there will be a four-phase salary increase in 2027, and comprehensive changes will be made to arrest procedures and the electoral calendar

    Haberler published

Evidence challenging YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Context 24 claims

  • Source publicationsemafor.compublished
    Context

    The issue of Venezuelan elections is expected to regain attention from Washington following the conclusion of the US midterm elections

    semafor.com published
  • Source publicationHaberlerpublished
    Context

    US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that they want a new Supreme Court, a new Electoral Council, and new elections in Venezuela

    Haberler published
  • Source publicationsemafor.compublished
    Context

    Venezuela's next major challenge is to transform the Trump administration's election strategy into a real transition towards democratic governance

    semafor.com published
  • Source publicationsemafor.compublished
    Context

    Opposition leader María Corina Machado pointed out that no election date has been set

    semafor.com published
  • Context

    The "acting" president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, addressed the nation and confirmed that elections will be held in Venezuela

    Sopitas.com published
  • Source publicationenglish.news.cnpublished
    Context

    Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced on Thursday that a "revamped" electoral authority will oversee new elections "with the world as a witness

    english.news.cn published
  • Source publicationsemafor.compublished
    Context

    The promise of elections by Delcy Rodríguez is considered ambitious given the ongoing political instability after the US arrested President Nicolás Maduro in January

    semafor.com published
  • Source publicationSopitas.compublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodríguez asked the Venezuelan people to judge her by her actions, assuring that her promises will become reality and will not remain on paper as in the past

    Sopitas.com published
  • Source publicationrmf24.plpublished
    Context

    The last presidential elections in Venezuela were held in 2024, and according to official results, Nicolas Maduro won them, but the opposition, informally led by Maria Corina Machado, considered them falsified

    rmf24.pl published
  • Source publicationinfobaepublished
    Context

    Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, promised four salary increases for 2027

    infobae published
  • Source publicationsemafor.compublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodríguez is indicating a willingness to cooperate with Washington, notwithstanding some of her public statements

    semafor.com published
  • Source publicationsemafor.compublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodríguez has appointed former opposition aide Oliver Blanco to the position of foreign minister

    semafor.com published
  • Source publicationSopitas.compublished
    Context

    The interim president of Venezuela stated that she is building "a country worth returning to

    Sopitas.com published
  • Source publicationenglish.news.cnpublished
    Context

    The United States brought narco-terrorism charges against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro before launching a military operation in Venezuela and capturing him in the name of law enforcement in January

    english.news.cn published
  • Source publicationSopitas.compublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodríguez stated, "I have said it, there will be elections, all those mandated by our Constitution, organized by a renewed electoral authority and with the world as a witness

    Sopitas.com published
  • Context

    The date for the next election was not specified by Delcy Rodríguez

    El Español published
  • Source publicationinfobaepublished
    Context

    The minimum monthly salary in Venezuela has remained at 130 bolivars since 2022

    infobae published
  • Source publicationinfobaepublished
    Context

    The Venezuelan government compensates for the low minimum salary with a $240 bonus paid through vouchers that do not affect labor benefits

    infobae published
  • Source publicationEl Españolpublished
    Context

    The Venezuelan government is considering returning non-essential state assets to the private sector or their former owners

    El Español published
  • Context

    Delcy Rodríguez, acting president of Venezuela since early January, has promised that elections will be held in her country with a renewed electoral authority

    ElNacional.cat published
  • Source publicationElNacional.catpublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodríguez stated that she is the "right person" to lead the elections, asserting that "only someone who deeply knows the inner workings of the Venezuelan State can lead this process

    ElNacional.cat published
  • Source publicationenglish.news.cnpublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodriguez stated in a nationwide address that all elections required by the Constitution will be held, with safeguards to prevent the electoral process from becoming a source of trouble or reviving "times of confrontation that no one wants anymore

    english.news.cn published
  • Source publicationenglish.news.cnpublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodriguez added that her government seeks to secure "genuine conditions for fair participation for all political forces," so elections can serve as a way to resolve differences rather than deepen divisions

    english.news.cn published
  • Source publicationEl Españolpublished
    Context

    Delcy Rodríguez declared during a national address, 'There will be elections, all those mandated by our Constitution, organized by a renewed electoral authority and with the world as a witness'

    El Español published

Who reported it 8 publishers, each setting its own name

  • semafor.com 7
  • english.news.cn 4
  • Haberler 4
  • Sopitas.com 4
  • El Español 3
  • infobae 3
  • rmf24.pl 3
  • ElNacional.cat 2

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 8 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (1 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated

This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available.

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