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Research briefs
Research briefs on prediction market questions: the evidence, the named sources, the settlement rules and the resolution risks.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
217 published briefs · Page 19 of 19
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Politics
Will Maria Corina Machado enter Venezuela before 30 September?
A short-dated market on whether the Venezuelan opposition leader physically enters Venezuelan territory before 30 September. Everything retrieved here is statement of intent rather than confirmed movement: Machado saying she is preparing to return, framing that return as a contribution to a political process, and citing the release of political prisoners and the social and economic situation as her reasons, with Ivan Duque expressing a supporting view. Stated intent is weak evidence for a deadline market, and no claim establishes a date, a route, or any confirmation of entry.
Research dated , an older snapshot