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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?

30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 15 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Politics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

15
Toward yes
0
Against yes
15
Context

9 publishers1 Nov to 4 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

What could still go wrong

  • The phrase 'equal to or below the listed value' — the listed value is 34%, but the description says 'equal to or below 34%' which means 34.0% exactly would resolve YES, but it's unclear how Silver Bulletin rounds or displays decimal values on the trend line.
  • The exact market creation date is not specified, which defines the start of the resolution window.
  • If Silver Bulletin changes methodology, the market explicitly ignores this, which could lead to disputes about whether a dip below 34% is methodological or real.
  • Fallback to RealClearPolitics is only triggered if Silver Bulletin becomes 'permanently unavailable' — the definition of 'permanently unavailable' is ambiguous.
  • Timezone of the data points and when 'finalization' occurs is not precisely defined beyond 'once the next data point is available'.
  • The deadline for December 31 data point is January 4, 2027 12:00 PM ET — it is unclear what timezone Silver Bulletin publishes in and whether partial-day data counts.

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 15 claims

  • Source publicationstern.depublished
    Toward yes

    Since his inauguration, approval ratings for Donald Trump have consistently decreased, while disapproval has increased

    stern.de published
  • Toward yes

    According to preliminary exit polls released by CBS News on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's approval rating stood at only 38% on election night, marking the lowest record for a US president in midterm elections since CBS News began tracking this metric in 2006

    TVBS published
  • Source publicationop-online.depublished
    Toward yes

    President Donald Trump's approval ratings have barely changed in the last month leading up to the midterm elections but are significantly lower than at the beginning of the year, according to an analysis of four nationwide polls by Newsweek

    op-online.de published
  • Source publicationMerkur.depublished
    Toward yes

    Donald Trump's approval ratings have reached a record low shortly before the midterm elections

    Merkur.de published
  • Source publicationMerkur.depublished
    Toward yes

    Donald Trump's approval rating is currently lower than any rating Joe Biden has ever recorded

    Merkur.de published
  • Source publicationMerkur.depublished
    Toward yes

    The reasons for the decline in Trump's approval ratings are the government's handling of rising living costs and the unpopular war against Iran

    Merkur.de published
  • Toward yes

    Donald Trump's net approval rating is at minus 15 percentage points, his lowest level since returning to the White House and the lowest during both of his presidential terms

    Vecernji.hr published
  • Source publicationop-online.depublished
    Toward yes

    Trump's net approval rating in the four surveys on October 29 was 11 to 11.8 percentage points worse than at the start of 2026

    op-online.de published
  • Source publicationTVBSpublished
    Toward yes

    Donald Trump's 38% approval rating is a 7 percentage point decrease from his 45% rating during the 2018 midterm elections

    TVBS published
  • Source publicationTVBSpublished
    Toward yes

    Former President George W. Bush had a 43% approval rating in 2006, Barack Obama had 44% in 2010, and Joe Biden maintained 44% in 2022, all higher than Donald Trump's current rating

    TVBS published
  • Toward yes

    A Reuters-Ipsos poll released on November 2nd (local time) showed President Trump's job approval rating at 32%

    First-Class 경제신문 파이낸셜뉴스 published
  • Source publicationEl Periódicopublished
    Toward yes

    According to a poll published in The New York Times, Trump's approval reached a new low two weeks before the midterm elections

    El Periódico published
  • Source publicationMerkur.depublished
    Toward yes

    According to data from FiftyPlusOne, the average of all polls shows a rejection rate of 61.5% and an approval rating of 35.3% for Donald Trump, resulting in a difference of +26 (rejection)

    Merkur.de published
  • Toward yes

    Donald Trump is experiencing poor approval ratings, with 60 to 75 percent of the population indicating that the USA is on the wrong course, according to various polls

    NEWS Online published
  • Source publicationstern.depublished
    Toward yes

    Disapproval is increasingly reaching the base of Trump-loyal MAGA voters

    stern.de published

Evidence challenging YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Context 15 claims

  • Source publicationMerkur.depublished
    Context

    Donald Trump declared the midterm elections a referendum on himself

    Merkur.de published
  • Context

    Donald Trump declared the inflation problem to be 'solved'

    N-tv published
  • Source publicationstern.depublished
    Context

    The New York Times regularly determines an average value from recent polls to provide a better overview of Donald Trump's approval ratings

    stern.de published
  • Source publicationVecernji.hrpublished
    Context

    46% of all voters strongly disapprove of Trump's work, more than double the 22% who strongly support him

    Vecernji.hr published
  • Source publicationop-online.depublished
    Context

    Silver Bulletin records 37.3% approval versus 60.1% disapproval, placing him 22.8 percentage points underwater

    op-online.de published
  • Source publicationFirst-Class 경제신문 파이낸셜뉴스published
    Context

    33% of respondents stated that President Trump's actions did not influence their voting decision

    First-Class 경제신문 파이낸셜뉴스 published
  • Source publicationEl Periódicopublished
    Context

    The United States is approaching the midterm election day with President Trump's popularity at a low

    El Periódico published
  • Source publicationFirst-Class 경제신문 파이낸셜뉴스published
    Context

    This approval rating is the same as the previous week and only 1% point higher than the record low of 31% recorded two weeks prior

    First-Class 경제신문 파이낸셜뉴스 published
  • Source publicationN-tvpublished
    Context

    Donald Trump stated that in the past, the United States was 'a laughingstock worldwide', but now 'we are hot. We are the hottest country in the world. We are respected by everybody

    N-tv published
  • Source publicationN-tvpublished
    Context

    Donald Trump stated, 'We have to keep America great,' referencing his slogan 'Make America Great Again'

    N-tv published
  • Source publicationop-online.depublished
    Context

    On October 29, approval ratings ranged between 33% and 38.4%, while disapproval in all four surveys was around 60%

    op-online.de published
  • Source publicationNEWS Onlinepublished
    Context

    Historically, a governing party with such low approval ratings typically loses 28 seats in the House of Representatives, which would cost the Republicans their majority

    NEWS Online published
  • Source publicationN-tvpublished
    Context

    Donald Trump asserted, 'We have it completely under control' regarding the Strait of Hormuz, following the Navy's blockade against Iran

    N-tv published
  • Source publicationN-tvpublished
    Context

    Donald Trump claimed that car manufacturers are 'pouring in' because they do not want to pay tariffs

    N-tv published
  • Source publicationN-tvpublished
    Context

    Donald Trump alleged that before his presidency, the US border was 'open', with 'millions and millions of people coming in, many criminals and murderers'

    N-tv published

Who reported it 9 publishers, each setting its own name

  • N-tv 6
  • Merkur.de 5
  • op-online.de 4
  • First-Class 경제신문 파이낸셜뉴스 3
  • stern.de 3
  • TVBS 3
  • El Periódico 2
  • NEWS Online 2
  • Vecernji.hr 2

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 9 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 6 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (2 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated
  2. Published · research dated

Compared with research dated

This revision replaces research dated 3 November 2026 with research dated 7 November 2026. 3 of 9 cited sources are new; 6 are carried over.

More published research