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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?

24 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Politics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

0
Toward yes
11
Against yes
13
Context

9 publishers27 Oct to 9 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

What could still go wrong

  • 'Consensus of credible reporting' is subjective and undefined — no specific outlets or threshold number of sources specified
  • Market creation date is not explicitly stated, creating ambiguity about the start of the qualifying window
  • 'Recognized boundaries' of each site are not formally defined and could be disputed
  • Timezone ambiguity: '11:59 PM ET' on December 31 could refer to EST (UTC-5) or EDT (UTC-4) depending on interpretation, though December 31 is EST — end date metadata suggests 04:59 UTC which aligns with EST
  • No clarity on whether a covert or unannounced visit that is later reported would qualify if not confirmed by IAEA directly

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Evidence challenging YES 11 claims

  • Against yes

    Esmail Kosari, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Parliament, stated that the centrifuges and 60% uranium reserves were not damaged after the US attacks on the nuclear facilities of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan

    خبرآنلاین published
  • Against yes

    Iran suspended its cooperation with the IAEA following aggressive attacks by the United States and the Zionist regime in June 2025, which led to the bombing of Iran's atomic facilities in Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow

    همشهری آنلاین published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Against yes

    Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the UN nuclear watchdog has "failed to fulfill their legal obligations by adopting positions that overlook the culpability and wrongdoing in the aggression against Iran's facilities

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationthenewsintel.compublished
    Against yes

    Iran has denied the IAEA access needed to conduct inspections at Iran's most proliferation-sensitive nuclear sites

    thenewsintel.com published
  • Source publicationCNHI Newspublished
    Against yes

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not had access to key nuclear facilities in Iran since Israel, joined by the United States, launched a 12-day conflict in June 2025 that included strikes on nuclear sites

    CNHI News published
  • Source publicationthenewsintel.compublished
    Against yes

    The IAEA reported in June 2026 that it was unable to draw a safeguards conclusion regarding Iran's nuclear material due to Iran's refusal to engage, and stated this was a proliferation concern

    thenewsintel.com published
  • Source publicationthenewsintel.compublished
    Against yes

    Last month, the IAEA Board of Governors reported Iran to the Security Council for continued non-compliance with its nuclear safeguards obligations

    thenewsintel.com published
  • Source publicationCNHI Newspublished
    Against yes

    Nuclear facilities have also been hit in the latest war, which erupted on February 28, and the IAEA has repeatedly called for access

    CNHI News published
  • Source publicationCNHI Newspublished
    Against yes

    The Security Council meeting followed a resolution passed by the IAEA board last month that referred Iran to the top UN body over its nuclear "non-compliance

    CNHI News published
  • Source publicationCNHI Newspublished
    Against yes

    IAEA chief Rafael Grossi urged Iran during a UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday to grant immediate access to his agency so it can verify the Islamic republic's nuclear materials

    CNHI News published
  • Source publication연합뉴스published
    Against yes

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported to the UN Security Council that it has not confirmed any Iranian efforts to restore or rebuild nuclear facilities destroyed by US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025

    연합뉴스 published

Context 13 claims

  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the International Atomic Energy Agency recently inspected Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the recent inspection of the Bushehr nuclear power plant is evidence that regulated cooperation continues

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Esmaeil Baghaei said that "Professional communication between Iran's mission in Vienna and the agency is ongoing

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Esmaeil Baghaei reiterated Iran's stance that the US must concede to Iranian demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Esmaeil Baghaei responded to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statements by saying that "the US attack on Iran in the middle of negotiations is what is outrageous and ridiculous

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Esmaeil Baghaei stressed that "Tehran will only sign and implement an agreement that fully secures the national interests and legal rights of the Iranian nation

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationThe Times of Israelpublished
    Context

    Esmaeil Baghaei argued that the US is being drawn into war by Israel

    The Times of Israel published
  • Source publicationخبرآنلاینpublished
    Context

    According to Kosari, the distance of these forces from Iran, ranging from 700 to 1000 kilometers, has reduced their operational capability for an attack compared to the past

    خبرآنلاین published
  • Source publicationخبرآنلاینpublished
    Context

    Kosari explained that the US has deployed a significant number of aircraft around Iran

    خبرآنلاین published
  • Source publicationخبرآنلاینpublished
    Context

    Kosari noted that these US aircraft are not present in the Persian Gulf

    خبرآنلاین published
  • Source publicationقناة العالم الاخباريةpublished
    Context

    وسط معارضة روسيا والصين.. بحث ملف ايران النووي باجتماع لمجلس الأمن الدولي - قناة العالم الاخبارية. عقد مجلس الأمن الدولي اجتماعا اليوم الثلاثاء، بناءً على طلب امريكا والدول الأوروبية الثلاث فرنسا وبريطانيا وألمانيا وكذلك البحرين، وذلك في أعقاب القرار المسيس ضد البرنامج النووي السلمي الإيراني، والذي يقضي بإحالة الملف النووي الإيراني إلى هذا المجلس، وقد عارض ممثلا روسيا والصين عقد هذا الاجتماع. وأ

    قناة العالم الاخبارية published
  • Context

    گروسی خواستار بازگشت بازرسان آژانس به ایران شد

    اعتمادآنلاین published
  • Source publicationایرناpublished
    Context

    نشست شورای امنیت سازمان ملل در پی ارجاع پرونده ایران از آژانس/ اعتراض روسیه و چین. نیویورک - ایرنا- نشست شورای امنیت سازمان ملل متحد در پی قطعنامه سیاسی و ضد ایرانی آمریکا و حامیانش در شورای حکام آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی مبنی بر ارجاع پرونده هستهای ایران به این شورا برگزار شد و نمایندگان روسیه و چین با برگزاری این نشست مخالفت کردند. به گزارش خبرنگار ایرنا از مقر سازمان ملل، ای

    ایرنا published

Who reported it 9 publishers, each setting its own name

  • The Times of Israel 8
  • CNHI News 4
  • خبرآنلاین 4
  • thenewsintel.com 3
  • اعتمادآنلاین 1
  • ایرنا 1
  • قناة العالم الاخبارية 1
  • همشهری آنلاین 1
  • 연합뉴스 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 24 claims from 9 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (2 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated
  2. Published · research dated

Compared with research dated

This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 9 November 2026. 4 of 9 cited sources are new; 5 are carried over.

More published research