MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Kalshi research briefs
126 published briefs on Kalshi markets, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
126 published briefs · Page 1 of 11
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Politics
Will Christopher Luxon become Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 New Zealand general election?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Macro
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% by Nov 30, 2026? (5.21% or above)
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Tech
What will be the top AI model on Nov 30, 2026? (Gemini 4 Carbon (High))
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 16 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will France enact its 2027 budget before Jan 1, 2027? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 16 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Economy
Colombia wage growth minus inflation above 4.00 pp in 2027?
18 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Donald Trump meet in person Flávio Bolsonaro after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Cindy Hyde-Smith concede defeat in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race before Nov 21, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth receive above 210 Yea votes in the House?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Senate has begun an impeachment trial of Pete Hegseth before Jul 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will the White House announce an end to its press ban before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Chuck Schumer be reelected Senate Democratic leader for the 120th Congress by voice vote or acclamation? (Yes)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated