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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp hike AND dissents be 0 for Dec 2026? (Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0)

30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 12 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Economy brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

0
Toward yes
12
Against yes
18
Context

13 publishers27 Oct to 29 Oct 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

If ALL of the following occur for Dec 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.

What could still go wrong

  • The end date of 2026-12-09T18:55:00Z may not align with the actual December 2026 FOMC meeting announcement date/time — the December 2026 FOMC meeting schedule has not been confirmed and could fall on a different date.
  • The term 'dissents' is not fully defined — it is unclear whether this counts only dissents against the rate decision, dissents on any part of the statement, or both hawkish and dovish dissents separately.
  • Resolution depends on Kalshi-specific rulesets (FEDDECISION and FOMCDISSENTCOUNT) which may have internal definitions not publicly detailed, creating potential ambiguity in edge cases.
  • If the FOMC meeting is rescheduled or the announcement falls after the market end date, resolution criteria may become impossible to satisfy within the specified timeframe.

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Evidence challenging YES 12 claims

  • Source publicationChina Dailypublished
    Against yes

    The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate

    China Daily published
  • Against yes

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided by a vote of 10 to 2 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00%

    中時新聞網 published
  • Source publicationNews & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLivepublished
    Against yes

    The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark interest rate at a range of 3.75% to 4%, pausing after a previous increase

    News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Against yes

    The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates was a pause

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Against yes

    The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady occurred just days before the US midterm elections

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationJack Dorsey Is Objectively Pro-Nazi (M.G. Saroff)published
    Against yes

    U.S. Treasury yields moved in different directions following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates unchanged and Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference

    Jack Dorsey Is Objectively Pro-Nazi (M.G. Saroff) published
  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Against yes

    Two Fed members, Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack, voted against the decision and advocated for a further 0.25% interest rate hike

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publicationThe New York Timespublished
    Against yes

    The Federal Reserve is expected to pause raising interest rates on Wednesday

    The New York Times published
  • Source publicationThe New York Timespublished
    Against yes

    Federal Reserve policymakers have conveyed that there is no urgency to raise rates two months in a row

    The New York Times published
  • Source publicationNews & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLivepublished
    Against yes

    Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also dissented, advocating for tighter policy, consistent with her previous dissents in April and July

    News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive published
  • Source publicationPOLITICOpublished
    Against yes

    Governor Lisa Cook dissented from the decision to keep interest rates unchanged

    POLITICO published
  • Against yes

    The Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged comes six days ahead of the November 3 midterm elections

    GULF NEWS published

Context 18 claims

  • Source publicationThe New York Timespublished
    Context

    Federal Reserve officials believe they have more work to do to tame persistent inflation

    The New York Times published
  • Source publicationJack Dorsey Is Objectively Pro-Nazi (M.G. Saroff)published
    Context

    The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.702% from 4.770% after the rate decision

    Jack Dorsey Is Objectively Pro-Nazi (M.G. Saroff) published
  • Source publicationInvestor.bgpublished
    Context

    The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, maintaining the federal funds rate target between 3.75% and 4%

    Investor.bg published
  • Source publicationChina Dailypublished
    Context

    The US Federal Reserve kept its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75 to 4 percent

    China Daily published
  • Context

    The US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on October 28th (early morning of the 29th Taiwan time) that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publication中時新聞網published
    Context

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell insisted that the interest rate decision was not influenced by political factors and reiterated the commitment to fighting inflation

    中時新聞網 published
  • Context

    The Bank of America analysts stated in a note that they viewed a rate hike as a possibility but with low conviction, and that either decision would not significantly alter their forecasts

    HousingWire published
  • Context

    Fed Chair Warsh stated that returning inflation to the 2% target is the overriding priority and did not challenge expectations of a December rate hike

    News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive published
  • Context

    The Federal Reserve typically tries to avoid making interest rate decisions immediately before midterm elections, even if not explicitly stated

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul analyzed the potential implications of the Federal Reserve's rate decision in relation to the midterm elections

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Context

    The decision on interest rates by the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be announced at 2:00 pm local time (1800GMT) on Wednesday

    Economic Times published
  • Source publicationThe New York Timespublished
    Context

    The Federal Reserve delivered an interest rate increase last month, the first since 2023

    The New York Times published
  • Source publicationNews & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLivepublished
    Context

    With two officials dissenting in favor of a hike, the December meeting is seen as a crucial indicator of the Fed's tightening path

    News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive published
  • Source publicationThe New York Timespublished
    Context

    The midterm elections are taking place less than a week after the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday

    The New York Times published
  • Source publicationNews & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLivepublished
    Context

    This change to the meeting schedule revises a 45-year-old calendar and aligns with Warsh's preference for a less visible Federal Reserve

    News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive published
  • Context

    Thomas Hoenig, a distinguished senior fellow at the Mercatus Center and former president and CEO of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, shared his views on the Fed's decision

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Source publicationYahoo! Financepublished
    Context

    Hoenig stated that Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh owes the public and the media clear explanations for the Fed's decisions

    Yahoo! Finance published
  • Context

    The Federal Reserve hinted at additional interest rate hikes later this year in an effort to curb inflation

    BBC published

Who reported it 13 publishers, each setting its own name

  • Yahoo! Finance 6
  • News & Analysis for Stocks, Crypto & Forex | investingLive 5
  • The New York Times 5
  • China Daily 2
  • Jack Dorsey Is Objectively Pro-Nazi (M.G. Saroff) 2
  • Yahoo News 2
  • 中時新聞網 2
  • BBC 1
  • Economic Times 1
  • GULF NEWS 1
  • HousingWire 1
  • Investor.bg 1
  • POLITICO 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 13 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (2 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated
  2. Published · research dated

Compared with research dated

This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 9 November 2026. 6 of 22 cited sources are new; 16 are carried over.

More published research