MarketClaims
Sign in
Start free, 10 analysesSign in

The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?

30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 9 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Politics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

3
Toward yes
13
Against yes
14
Context

16 publishers7 Nov to 9 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

What could still go wrong

  • The description says 'above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027' but does not clarify whether this requires at least one day above 60 or the entire period above 60 — single-day breach vs. sustained threshold.
  • The exact timezone for the date boundaries (July 6, 2026 end-of-day and January 1, 2027 start) is not specified, creating potential boundary disputes.
  • IMF PortWatch data may be revised or delayed; it is unclear which snapshot or data vintage would be used for resolution.
  • 'Transit calls' is not explicitly defined — could mean vessel transits, port calls, or a specific IMF PortWatch metric definition that may change over time.
  • The market end date is January 5, 2027, which is after the stated resolution window end of January 1, 2027, creating ambiguity about how post-window data or late-reported data would be handled.

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 3 claims

  • Toward yes

    The Iranian agency ISNA reported that Tehran has already allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz for ships from India, China, Iraq, and Qatar

    Borba Info published
  • Toward yes

    According to diplomatic sources familiar with the mediation between Washington and Tehran, the United States offered, as part of a proposal attached to the Qatari proposal, a partial lifting of the blockade through a phased agreement that begins with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation

    https://kataeb.org/ published
  • Source publicationBorba Infopublished
    Toward yes

    In return for the fulfillment of its demands, Tehran would open the Strait of Hormuz to merchant ships and resume negotiations with Washington, including talks on the nuclear program

    Borba Info published

Evidence challenging YES 13 claims

  • Against yes

    Iran's Navy claimed that an oil tanker caught fire after striking naval mines while travelling through a restricted route east of the Strait of Hormuz

    madhyamamonline.com published
  • Against yes

    The American army is suspected of having fired projectiles towards Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on the evening of the report, according to Iranian state media

    Telegrafi published
  • Source publicationana.irpublished
    Against yes

    Mohammad Rashidi emphasized Iran's strategic position in regional transit and energy equations, stating that recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz demonstrated that bypassing Iran's communication routes imposes heavy costs on regional and global countries, and that Tehran remains the connecting link for strategic East-West and North-South corridors

    ana.ir published
  • Source publicationGlobalSecurity.orgpublished
    Against yes

    The IRGC Navy claimed that two oil tankers struck naval mines while attempting to use unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz, causing both vessels to catch fire and stop; these claims have not been independently verified

    GlobalSecurity.org published
  • Against yes

    IRGC spokesperson Major General Hossein Mohebbi urged observers to assess the situation in the Strait of Hormuz through developments on the ground rather than statements issued by American military officials, stating, "Look at the reality of the Strait of Hormuz through the events unfolding there

    Tehran Times published
  • Source publicationUSA Herald - The People's Voicepublished
    Against yes

    Iranian media reported that the U.S. strikes landed on Qeshm Island in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz

    USA Herald - The People's Voice published
  • Source publicationUSA Herald - The People's Voicepublished
    Against yes

    Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Washington must "fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions" for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened

    USA Herald - The People's Voice published
  • Source publicationUSA Herald - The People's Voicepublished
    Against yes

    Iran stated that Washington's response to its plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz was "not convincing

    USA Herald - The People's Voice published
  • Source publicationGlobalSecurity.orgpublished
    Against yes

    The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy reiterated on November 6 that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Iran's conditions were met

    GlobalSecurity.org published
  • Source publicationGlobalSecurity.orgpublished
    Against yes

    Iranian Army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia stated on November 6 to the Tasnim News Agency that the only way to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is for the US to accept Tehran's demands

    GlobalSecurity.org published
  • Source publicationGlobalSecurity.orgpublished
    Against yes

    Iran states that the United States must accept its seven conditions for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, warning that further military action will not alter Iran's stance

    GlobalSecurity.org published
  • Source publicationmadhyamamonline.compublished
    Against yes

    The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported a tanker fire following a mine explosion in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it was the third such incident in the unauthorized shipping route that day

    madhyamamonline.com published
  • Source publicationTehran Timespublished
    Against yes

    The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is a sustained closure of normal commercial passage, imposed by Iran as part of its defensive response to a war initiated by Washington and Tel Aviv

    Tehran Times published

Context 14 claims

  • Source publicationTelegrafipublished
    Context

    Qeshm Island is located in the Persian Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz

    Telegrafi published
  • Source publicationana.irpublished
    Context

    Rashidi noted that regional countries have practically accepted Iran as a regional power, and efforts to mediate, end the war, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz reflect this reality

    ana.ir published
  • Context

    Explosions were also heard in the coastal cities of Bandar Abbas and Sirik, but Iranian media attributed these incidents to operations by the country's own forces for security maintenance and control of the Strait of Hormuz

    RTP - Rádio Televisão Portuguesa published
  • Source publicationRTP - Rádio Televisão Portuguesapublished
    Context

    Iranian authorities announced that US attacks were registered during the early morning hours against several points in Qeshm, in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the third round of bombings against the island in a week

    RTP - Rádio Televisão Portuguesa published
  • Context

    Ahmed Nefisi, Deputy Governor of Iran's southern Hormozgan Province, announced that the US launched an attack on targets on Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz during the night

    Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası published
  • Source publicationГазета.Rupublished
    Context

    The United States armed forces launched several "projectiles" at the Iranian island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IRNA agency

    Газета.Ru published
  • Source publicationГазета.Rupublished
    Context

    Journalists have not ruled out that the explosions were related to the actions of Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz area

    Газета.Ru published
  • Context

    Tehran has not commented on the explosions, which are speculated to be related to control over the Strait of Hormuz

    Информационно-аналитический портал "NEELOV.RU" published
  • Source publicationИнформационно-аналитический портал "NEELOV.RU"published
    Context

    The suspected targets of the US strikes were Iranian air defense systems that were interfering with American drones conducting reconnaissance over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz

    Информационно-аналитический портал "NEELOV.RU" published
  • Source publicationbangladeshpost.netpublished
    Context

    The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global energy supplies

    bangladeshpost.net published
  • Context

    Samadi emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is one of Iran's most important strategic tools in the current situation and can influence the economic and political calculations of global powers, but its use must be planned and its consequences carefully considered

    خبرگزاری مهر | اخبار ایران و جهان | Mehr News Agency published
  • Source publicationhttps://kataeb.org/published
    Context

    Diplomatic sources informed "Erem News" that Tehran has not yet responded to the mediators regarding the American offer, awaiting assurances it deems necessary to accept discussing navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz, linking it to the lifting of the blockade and the unfreezing of funds

    https://kataeb.org/ published
  • Source publicationהארץpublished
    Context

    This new task force will coordinate military actions against land smuggling through Iran's borders and sea smuggling through the Caspian Sea, in addition to the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports on the Strait of Hormuz

    הארץ published
  • Context

    United States President Donald Trump stated that it is "highly unlikely" he will order American forces back into conflict with Iran, provided tangible progress is achieved in negotiations surrounding Tehran's nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

    Asianet News Network Pvt Ltd published

Who reported it 16 publishers, each setting its own name

  • GlobalSecurity.org 4
  • USA Herald - The People's Voice 3
  • ana.ir 2
  • Borba Info 2
  • https://kataeb.org/ 2
  • madhyamamonline.com 2
  • RTP - Rádio Televisão Portuguesa 2
  • Tehran Times 2
  • Telegrafi 2
  • Газета.Ru 2
  • Информационно-аналитический портал "NEELOV.RU" 2
  • Asianet News Network Pvt Ltd 1
  • bangladeshpost.net 1
  • Haberler | Son Dakika Haberleri - Diriliş Postası 1
  • הארץ 1
  • خبرگزاری مهر | اخبار ایران و جهان | Mehr News Agency 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 16 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (2 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated
  2. Published · research dated

Compared with research dated

This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 9 November 2026. 24 of 33 cited sources are new; 9 are carried over.

More published research