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The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?

30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 18 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Politics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

0
Toward yes
18
Against yes
12
Context

12 publishers4 Nov to 10 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 44%, then the market resolves to Yes. In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.

What could still go wrong

  • VoteHub is not a widely recognized polling aggregator, raising questions about data availability, methodology, and whether the source will remain active through the resolution period
  • The question title says 'Dec 2025 to Dec 2026' but the description specifies 'Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026' — the exact start date boundary could cause disputes
  • The threshold is 'above 44%' which means strictly greater than 44%, but it is unclear whether VoteHub reports to decimal precision or rounds to whole numbers, potentially creating ambiguity at exactly 44%
  • It is unclear whether VoteHub reports a single aggregate approval number or multiple polls, and which specific data point would be used for threshold comparison
  • The end date of the market is January 7, 2027, which extends beyond the stated resolution period of December 31, 2026, potentially creating confusion about the evaluation window

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Evidence challenging YES 18 claims

  • Source publicationUSA Todaypublished
    Against yes

    President Donald Trump's approval rating is at its lowest level since late September, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll

    USA Today published
  • Against yes

    Donald Trump's approval rating on immigration policy was 38%, while his economic stewardship received a 25% rating

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Against yes

    Donald Trump's approval rating was 31% in a mid-October Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was the lowest of his political career

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Against yes

    President Donald Trump's approval rating was 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday, unchanged from two prior polls

    Yahoo News published
  • Against yes

    Donald Trump's approval rating for immigration policy is 38%, which is considerably higher than the 25% Americans give his economic management

    CNN Brasil published
  • Source publicationCNN Brasilpublished
    Against yes

    The approval rating of 32% is one percentage point higher than the 31% recorded in a mid-October Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was the lowest of Donald Trump's political career

    CNN Brasil published
  • Source publicationUSA Todaypublished
    Against yes

    A majority of Americans (58%) believe President Donald Trump's job performance in his second term is worse than in his first term

    USA Today published
  • Source publicationUSA Todaypublished
    Against yes

    As of Monday, Nov. 9, the RealClearPolitics average showed Trump's approval rating at 38.9% with 59.2% disapproval

    USA Today published
  • Source publicationTHE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLESpublished
    Against yes

    The Atlas poll showed Donald Trump's net approval rating at minus 18 percentage points, with 40.3 per cent approving of his performance and 58.6 per cent disapproving

    THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES published
  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Against yes

    81% of Republicans supported Donald Trump's immigration approach, compared to 50% who supported his approach to the cost of living

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Against yes

    Only 21% of Americans approved of Donald Trump's management of the cost of living

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publicationCNN Brasilpublished
    Against yes

    The approval rating of United States President Donald Trump remained near the lowest point of his political career, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll

    CNN Brasil published
  • Against yes

    This approval rating of 32% is a 1 percentage point increase from the mid-October poll, when Trump's approval rating was 31%, marking a record low in his political career

    Liberty Times Net published
  • Source publicationLiberty Times Netpublished
    Against yes

    Trump's approval rating on immigration policy is 38%

    Liberty Times Net published
  • Source publicationLiberty Times Netpublished
    Against yes

    A poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos on November 9th shows that US President Trump's approval rating is only 32%, nearing the lowest point of his career

    Liberty Times Net published
  • Source publicationLiberty Times Netpublished
    Against yes

    According to Reuters, the latest poll indicates that approximately 32% of Americans approve of Trump's performance in the White House

    Liberty Times Net published
  • Against yes

    President Trump's approval rating was declining due to increased gas and diesel prices, high inflation, his trade war with Canada, and the unpopular war with Iran

    Lethbridge News Now published
  • Source publicationNews18 ಕನ್ನಡpublished
    Against yes

    The Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, has faced a setback in the 2026 US midterm elections

    News18 ಕನ್ನಡ published

Context 12 claims

  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Context

    Donald Trump's Republican Party suffered a defeat in the November 3 midterm elections, losing control of both chambers of the US Congress

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publicationCNN Brasilpublished
    Context

    Approximately 81% of Republicans surveyed supported Donald Trump's approach to immigration, compared to 50% who supported his handling of the cost of living

    CNN Brasil published
  • Source publicationCNN Brasilpublished
    Context

    Only 21% of Americans approve of Donald Trump's handling of the cost of living, and this low popularity hurt his allies in Congress

    CNN Brasil published
  • Source publicationCNN Brasilpublished
    Context

    Donald Trump's Republican Party suffered a significant defeat in the midterm elections, losing control of both houses of the U.S. Congress

    CNN Brasil published
  • Context

    Democrats took control of the Senate, according to projections from American media, inflicting a bitter defeat on President Donald Trump's Republicans in the midterm elections

    BFMTV published
  • Source publicationEconomic Timespublished
    Context

    Democratic control of the Senate will reshape President Donald Trump's final two years in office and likely hamstring his ability to push his agenda

    Economic Times published
  • Context

    Most American voters believe that Donald Trump's policies have worsened the economic situation

    newsbomb.gr published
  • Context

    This outcome is considered a political blow to President Donald Trump's administration

    AL Masry Al Youm published
  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Context

    The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online nationwide from November 6 to 9, gathering responses from 1,705 US adults with a margin of error of about 2 percentage points

    Yahoo News published
  • Source publicationYahoo Newspublished
    Context

    Democrats scored their biggest victory in the House of Representatives since at least 2008 and flipped Senate seats in traditionally conservative states

    Yahoo News published
  • Context

    Republicans are blaming President Donald Trump, the quality of candidates, and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., for their losses

    Fox News published
  • Source publicationTHE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLESpublished
    Context

    The White House document stated that Donald Trump had secured "new and improved trade agreements" with major US trading partners, including India, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan, China, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia

    THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES published

Who reported it 12 publishers, each setting its own name

  • Yahoo News 8
  • CNN Brasil 6
  • Liberty Times Net 4
  • USA Today 3
  • THE LOCAL REPORT ARTICLES 2
  • AL Masry Al Youm 1
  • BFMTV 1
  • Economic Times 1
  • Fox News 1
  • Lethbridge News Now 1
  • News18 ಕನ್ನಡ 1
  • newsbomb.gr 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 12 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 5 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (2 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated
  2. Published · research dated

Compared with research dated

This revision replaces research dated 5 November 2026 with research dated 10 November 2026. 10 of 25 cited sources are new; 15 are carried over.

More published research