MarketClaims
Sign in
Start free, 10 analysesSign in

The MarketClaims Brief · Published research

Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 21 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.

Politics brief. Evidence collected, research dated and published .

This is an older research snapshot. It may miss subsequent developments.

What the evidence does

0
Toward yes
21
Against yes
9
Context

9 publishers1 Nov to 4 Nov 2026Evidence collected

How this market settles

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The percentage is based on the first round of voting.

What could still go wrong

  • Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system; the definition of 'first round' must be clarified as the initial tabulation before any RCV elimination rounds
  • The 2026 Alaska Senate election has not yet occurred; if the election is canceled, postponed, or Sullivan does not appear on the ballot, resolution criteria are undefined
  • No specific official source or certifying authority is named beyond 'certified/official results'
  • Rounding methodology (round half up, half to even, etc.) for the two decimal places is not specified, which could matter in borderline cases

Evidence you can inspect These labels describe how a claim relates to the question. They are not recommendations or independent votes.

Evidence supporting YES 0 claims

No claims in this category. Absence here is a coverage limit, not a finding.

Evidence challenging YES 21 claims

  • Source publicationFirstpostpublished
    Against yes

    US President Donald Trump stated, "They [the Democrats] found a guy named Dan Sullivan. They put him up to get [voters] a little confused

    Firstpost published
  • Source publicationFirstpostpublished
    Against yes

    According to Republicans, the presence of Daniel J Sullivan Jr. on the ballot is a tactic by Democrats to confuse voters

    Firstpost published
  • Source publicationFirstpostpublished
    Against yes

    US President Donald Trump accused Democrats of fielding a Dan Sullivan to misguide voters

    Firstpost published
  • Source publicationFirstpostpublished
    Against yes

    In Alaska, two candidates named Dan Sullivan are on the Senate ballot

    Firstpost published
  • Against yes

    According to The New York Times, a staffer for Mary Peltola received instructions in the summer of 2025 to find individuals named Dan Sullivan in Alaska

    Mediaite published
  • Source publicationThe Hillpublished
    Against yes

    Mary Peltola received 49.5 percent of the vote in the primary, while Dan Sullivan received 41.4 percent

    The Hill published
  • Source publicationAnadolu Ajansıpublished
    Against yes

    US Sen. Dan Sullivan stated, "We've been hearing from all kinds of people that are confused. I've heard from people who think they've voted for the wrong guy and have apologized to me. Just like I said, the scheme is working

    Anadolu Ajansı published
  • Source publicationAnadolu Ajansıpublished
    Against yes

    US Sen. Dan Sullivan said some voters had mistaken him for Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher also on the ballot

    Anadolu Ajansı published
  • Source publicationAnadolu Ajansıpublished
    Against yes

    US Sen. Dan Sullivan claimed on Tuesday that voters were confused by another candidate with the same name on Alaska's Senate ballot

    Anadolu Ajansı published
  • Source publicationAnadolu Ajansıpublished
    Against yes

    US Sen. Dan Sullivan alleged a Democratic scheme to mislead voters

    Anadolu Ajansı published
  • Source publicationHaberlerpublished
    Against yes

    Democratic candidate Mary Peltola was leading incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 626 votes, but the name similarity on the ballot disrupted the balance

    Haberler published
  • Source publicationHaberlerpublished
    Against yes

    Democratic candidate Mary Peltola was leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 626 votes

    Haberler published
  • Against yes

    The alleged plan aimed to sow confusion and cost the "real" Daniel S. Sullivan enough votes to potentially alter the election outcome

    redstate.com published
  • Source publicationredstate.compublished
    Against yes

    Voters might confuse Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. with Daniel S. Sullivan if they do not read the entire ballot

    redstate.com published
  • Source publicationredstate.compublished
    Against yes

    A voter interviewed expressed uncertainty about seeing a second "Dan Sullivan" on the ballot and intended to vote for the "real" Dan Sullivan

    redstate.com published
  • Source publicationredstate.compublished
    Against yes

    The Peltola campaign is alleged to have solicited Daniel J. Sullivan to run in the election to confuse voters and siphon votes away from the incumbent senator

    redstate.com published
  • Source publicationMediaitepublished
    Against yes

    The New York Times reported that staffers for Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK), an opponent of Senator Dan Sullivan, allegedly worked to find another "Dan Sullivan" to divert votes

    Mediaite published
  • Source publicationMediaitepublished
    Against yes

    Greg Martone admitted, "There is a slight possibility I voted for the wrong Dan Sullivan. I mean there is a slight possibility -- I'm hoping I'm just kinda getting paranoid

    Mediaite published
  • Source publicationMediaitepublished
    Against yes

    Reporter Nancy Loo observed that Greg Martone was "genuinely confused" by the ballot and believed he may have voted for Dan J. Sullivan instead of the incumbent Republican Senator

    Mediaite published
  • Source publicationMediaitepublished
    Against yes

    Greg Martone, an Alaskan voter, expressed uncertainty about whether he voted for Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) or a "decoy" Dan J. Sullivan

    Mediaite published
  • Source publicationNew York Postpublished
    Against yes

    The New York Times reported that the Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola's campaign recruited Daniel J. Sullivan, referred to as "Decoy Dan

    New York Post published

Context 9 claims

  • Source publicationNew York Postpublished
    Context

    In the Aug. 18 jungle primary, Daniel J. Sullivan received 2.5% of the vote, and Gerald Heikes received 1.1%, with both advancing to the general election

    New York Post published
  • Context

    An independent candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who shared the same first and last name as the Republican Senator, received 3,583 votes

    Haberler published
  • Source publicationShekullipublished
    Context

    US Senator Dan Sullivan stated that he received many calls from voters in Alaska on election day

    Shekulli published
  • Context

    Revelations About Dan Sullivan's Son: A Registered Democrat on Capitol Hill - News Addicts. The revelations surrounding Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher from Alaska, have taken a surprising turn. His son, Noah Casey Sullivan, is a registered Democrat and currently works as a field representative for a Democratic congresswoman from Washington. The elder Sullivan shares a name with inc

    News Addicts published
  • Source publicationFirstpostpublished
    Context

    Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is running against Democrat Mary Peltola and two other candidates, including Daniel J Sullivan Jr

    Firstpost published
  • Source publicationFirstpostpublished
    Context

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has begun a probe into the Dan Sullivan Senate race in Alaska

    Firstpost published
  • Source publicationNew York Postpublished
    Context

    Daniel J. Sullivan did not respond to emails or text messages from The Post on Tuesday, and his voicemail played a Halloween-themed message

    New York Post published
  • Source publicationNew York Postpublished
    Context

    The recruitment of Daniel J. Sullivan by Mary Peltola's campaign prompted a Justice Department investigation and litigation to potentially stall election result certification

    New York Post published
  • Source publicationNew York Postpublished
    Context

    Daniel J. Sullivan reportedly left his hometown of Petersburg last Monday, with a former student spotting him on a flight to Anchorage

    New York Post published

Who reported it 9 publishers, each setting its own name

  • Firstpost 6
  • Mediaite 5
  • New York Post 5
  • Anadolu Ajansı 4
  • redstate.com 4
  • Haberler 3
  • News Addicts 1
  • Shekulli 1
  • The Hill 1

What this brief cannot settle

This brief was assembled automatically from a research report that met a published quality bar. No individual review. It rests on 30 claims from 9 publishers; anything not reported in those sources is not represented here. The report recorded 4 resolution risks, listed with this brief.

Since the previous brief

Publication history (1 recorded revisions)
  1. Published · research dated

This is the first published brief for this event. No comparison is available.

More published research