MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Politics research briefs
134 published politics briefs, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
134 published briefs · Page 5 of 12
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Politics
Will Flávio Bolsonaro visit Brazil before Jul 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 10 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together before Jan 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Dec 1, 2026?
29 dated claims from 4 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? (Above 25)
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 1.2 percentage points? (Colom, 1.2+ pts)
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 6 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Democrats hold at least 57 Senate seats after the 2026 election?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 16 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 12 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 8 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the U.S. national debt hit $41 trillion before 2027?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 20 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? (Before Jul 1, 2027)
30 dated claims from 11 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 23 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 15 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will at least 20 Democrats vote against Jeffries on the first Speaker ballot?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 7 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will the Knesset approve a new government with both Likud and Yashar before Feb 1, 2027?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 7 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot