MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Politics research briefs
134 published politics briefs, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
134 published briefs · Page 8 of 12
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Politics
Will any current member of the Democratic Senate caucus (including independents who caucus with Democrats) publicly states that Chuck Schumer should step down, resign, or be replaced as Senate Democra
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 5 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 21 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 15 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
30 dated claims from 14 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
30 dated claims from 10 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 11 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 12 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 6 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 17 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 9 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 4 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 8 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 19 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot
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Politics
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 2 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 3 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated , an older snapshot