MarketClaimsThe public research desk
Polymarket research briefs
89 published briefs on Polymarket markets, each with its dated claims, the publishers behind them and the venue's own settlement wording.
Research only. Not financial advice. No trades are placed.
89 published briefs · Page 2 of 8
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Economy
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
30 dated claims from 12 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 1 point toward YES and 7 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Tech
Will OpenAI IPO by March 31 2027?
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 9 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 12 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
30 dated claims from 5 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 22 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 13 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 16 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 8 point toward YES and 1 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Tech
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 3 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
30 dated claims from 6 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 4 point toward YES and 0 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Politics
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 3 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Economy
Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
30 dated claims from 7 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 8 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 11 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Weather
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
30 dated claims from 15 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 2 point toward YES and 13 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Crypto
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
30 dated claims from 9 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 5 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated
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Geopolitics
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
30 dated claims from 13 publishers are collected below, each with its source. 0 point toward YES and 14 against it; the rest are context. The research behind this brief is dated 10 November 2026. No direction or probability is published here: the claims and their sources are the brief.
Research dated